The Browns are gonna be even better in 2021 (and I don’t know how to feel about that)

And the most boring teams in free agency

There's still a long way to go, but the Browns are having the kind of offseason the Bills had in 2020; the kind that turns a good team into a great one.

Cleveland's best season since the Clinton administration may stand as an outlier in a data set of misery. General manager Andrew Berry — the youngest GM in the game at 33 years old — is putting in the work to make success a tradition. Months after the franchise's first postseason win since 1995, Berry's free agency plan is clear. The Browns will upgrade the league's 25th-ranked defense ... and may not have to overextend their salary cap space to get there.

Berry brought six new players to his roster over the first week of free agency. All but one plays on the defensive side of the ball. Only one — former Rams safety John Johnson — will make more than $5 million annually. In less than seven days, Cleveland made significant upgrades to their biggest weakness while retaining the financial flexibility to extend Baker Mayfield’s contract either this offseason or next. 

This is great news for the Browns. It’s much less so for the rest of the AFC North.

Cleveland bought low on high-impact defenders who can transform their outlook

The Browns’ biggest concern for 2021 is how an often unremarkable defense will hold up against a schedule that features seven opponents who qualified for last year’s playoffs. Cleveland went 5-4 against playoff teams, but also gave up 31.3 points per game in that stretch — a number that would have ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams if it held up over the course of a full season.

Many of those struggles fell on the secondary. Denzel Ward (18 passes defensed in 12 games and a 78.3 passer rating allowed) continued to be rock solid, but the pieces around him often crumbled. This left the gaps that gave quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, rookie Joe Burrow, and Mason by-god Rudolph to throw for 300+ yards against them.

That shouldn’t happen in 2021. Johnson has been a key cog in a consistent top-five passing defense since joining the league in 2017 and at age 25 is still improving on the field. Even if he can simply play to his career average he’ll be a massive step up from veterans Andrew Sendejo and Karl Joseph, who allowed 14 passing touchdowns on 83 targets between them last season (!) (!!) (IF YOU THREW DOWNFIELD ON SENDEJO OR JOSEPH YOU HAD A 17 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCORING A TOUCHDOWN HOLY SHIT).

Johnson won’t be able to rely on the services of Jalen Ramsey or Darious Williams anymore, but he’ll get plenty of support in Ward, a debuting Grant Delpit (a 2020 second-round pick who missed all of the season due to injury) and the Browns’ other big acquisition, Troy Hill.

Hill emerged as one of the league’s top slot cornerbacks in his first season as a full-time starter last year. It was the first time he’d seen more than 50 percent of his team’s defensive snaps, but the 29-year-old was up to the challenge. His two pick-sixes led the league and while his tackling left something to be desired, he propped himself up as the kind of defender who can erase short yard targets and make opponents rethink their slant games.

This is a big deal. The Browns play in a division loaded with slot talent, including the newly re-signed JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and for at least a handful of plays each week, Hollywood Brown. Cleveland not only got a guy who can limit their impact and freeze them out on third down, but they did so for relative peanuts; Hill’s two-year, $9 million deal pays him less overall and annually than inconsistent Eagles defensive back Jalen Mills got from the suddenly free-spending Patriots this offseason. He and Johnson will only cost Berry $33 million over the next two years, which is roughly on par with what the league’s fifth-best corner will make in the same span. That’s good spending!

It’s also going to open several new pages in defensive coordinator Joe Woods’ playbook. The 2020 Browns didn’t send extra pass rushers often; their 21.3 percent blitz rate was third-lowest in the league. Adding Johnson and Hill gives Woods the opportunity to bring more pressure without the instant regret of watching Sendejo get torched downfield and the opposing celebration that typically followed. 

He’ll have some extra help up front. Not only will Myles Garrett hopefully return at 100 percent after being limited following a positive COVID-19 test last fall, but the addition of Takkarist McKinley should help shrink pocket space for rival QBs. McKinley only had one sack in four games last season before missing the rest of the year due to injury, but his seven quarterback hits put him well on pace for a career high. Although that’s a small sample size, a projected 28 QB hit season would have been most on the Browns’ 2020 roster and fourth-best in the NFL at large. It also would have typically resulted in double-digit sacks.

Cleveland could use a healthy McKinley to mitigate the potential loss of veteran Olivier Vernon, who had a bounce-back season last year but is currently a free agent. Signing former Pro Bowler Malik Jackson is another low-risk, high-reward signing to fill a void up front. Larry Ogunjobi moved to the other side of Ohio when he inked a one-year deal with Cincinnati, but Jackson is capable of giving the Browns plus production in the middle of their 4-3 alongside Sheldon Richardson.

Jackson may not be a full-time starter at this point in his career, but he can rotate through the lineup with Richardson and 2020 third-rounder Jordan Elliott to provide some pressure up front. More importantly, the veteran remains a difficult-to-move run stopper; his 29 tackles for Philadelphia last season came an average depth of 1.2 yards downfield — a top 10 figure for qualified defensive linemen, per SIS.

McKinley and Jackson’s total cost for their one-year contracts? Up to $8.75 million. Either could outplay that number on his own, but if neither man is able to reclaim his earlier value, the Browns can walk away without too damaging an investment.

The Browns aren’t done, either

Berry's limited draft history suggests the Browns can add more impact talent this April. While he won't have the benefit of a top 10 selection like in 2020, he's proven he can identify difference-makers in the later rounds. Last spring brought cornerstone tackle Jedrick Wills to the lineup in the first round of the draft, but also dropped contributors Harrison Bryant and Donovan Peoples-Jones in the later rounds two days later.

That’s left the Cleveland offense clicking, and bringing in more blockers or skill players won’t be a priority — though it could happen if the value of a dropping player is too much to pass up. If Berry commits to spending all his 2021 building points on the defensive side of the ball there should be viable options available when his team makes the 26th pick this spring (or any of their three Day 2 picks that follow). 

The Browns have had a need at inside linebacker since Joe Schobert decamped to Jacksonville (on a $52.5 million contract. Good MLB help is hard to find!). They could use their first-round pick to scoop a steady talent like Missouri’s Nick Bolton. They could also use their Day 1 asset to pluck a falling edge rusher like Tulsa’s Zaven Collins or Michigan’s Kwity Paye should they last that long. The presence of guys like Alabama’s Dylan Moses, LSU’s Jabrill Cox, and Ohio State’s Pete Werner means there will be several chances to draft a playmaker in the middle of the defense.

The thing is, a productive offseason means Berry can draft for value rather than solely for need. That’s exactly where his team wants to be.

***

The Browns aren’t infallible; they’re unlikely to even be favored as division champions after finishing third in the North last season. But Berry’s busy offseason indicates there’s a common sense plan that not only addresses the team’s glaring weakness but also chips away at the growing aerial offenses that have recently dominated the AFC. 

There have been several reasons to be optimistic about Cleveland the past decade, but this year’s hope feels different. Maybe because it’s actually backed by results. Maybe it’s because I’ve been entirely brainwashed by Progressive commercials.

Either way, it’s clear Berry knows what he’s doing. Cleveland took a minor risk by hiring a well-versed 32-year-old at general manager. So far it looks like it’ll pay out with a major reward. —  CD

The most boring teams of free agency so far

Some teams have been busy making moves through the first week of free agency. Others are sitting back and waiting until either the market is set or, because of salary cap reasons, until the draft rolls around to improve the roster. 

You’ve gotta do what you’ve gotta do. But while certain teams — even the Patriots! — are getting in on the fun, a few others are the free agency equivalent of melatonin so far.

1. Packers

Biggest addition: Uh, no one (but they did re-sign running back Aaron Jones)

Other than the offseason when GM Brian Gutekunst signed both Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith, the Packers usually aren’t very active in free agency. This year, their salary cap woes (minus-$9 million, pre-free agency) necessitated that they couldn’t be. 

They did manage to keep Jones around on a new deal, but that’s about it as of now. At least there’s the draft, where the Packers will have 10 picks (and will still, somehow, not use any on a wide receiver). 

2. Falcons

Biggest addition: Trading for 33-year-old tight end Lee Smith?

The good news for the Falcons is they’ve found ways to get their salary cap situation out of the red. The bad news is it means they’ve only brought on three new players, all veterans on inexpensive one-year deals: Smith, linebacker Brandon Copeland, and safety Erik Harris. (Smith, who came over from the Bills, has one year left on his contract.) They may not move the needle, but they can all be useful depth pieces.

3. Eagles

Biggest addition: Safety Anthony Harris 

Of course, the most high-profile move the Eagles made was trading away Carson Wentz, which became official at the start of the new league year. Since then, the Eagles have been relatively quiet, which is no surprise considering they had minus-$28 million in salary cap space just a couple weeks ago and are still in the negative today.

One new face they did bring on board was Harris, who signed a one-year, $5 million deal after having a down 2020 season with the Vikings. The Eagles got someone who fills a position of need, is just two years removed from leading the league in interceptions, and at a good price. I think it’s a pretty solid signing, just not one that grabs a lot of headlines — especially when it’s their most notable.

4. Colts

Biggest addition: Quarterback Carson Wentz

Unlike the other teams on this list, the Colts have plenty of cap space and already made one major move when they traded for Wentz (the news broke in February, well before free agency officially began). That’s their only addition so far, though they did re-sign running back Marlon Mack and corner Xavier Rhodes, each to a one-year deal. 

With $35 million in cap space, the Colts probably won’t stay this passive (one suggestion: sign LT Eric Fisher). GM Chris Ballard simply prefers to take a patient approach to free agency, even if it means being boring for a while. — SH