The 8 biggest risk/reward picks from the 2021 NFL Draft
These players can make or break a team, if they pan out
I’m not ready to move on from the 2021 NFL Draft quite yet — and not just because I’m dreading a summer news cycle that feeds us a daily dose of Aaron Rodgers drama. Every year, after months of driving the offseason storylines, the draft is suddenly here, consumes our lives for three days straight, and leaves in its wake an entirely changed NFL. It’s a lot to process!
Previously, we went over our favorite (and least favorite) draft-day decisions, but the truth is, there’s still a lot of uncertainty. No one knows who will pan out or who really won the draft right now. I’d like to embrace the uncertainty for a bit and highlight a handful of boom-or-bust players from this class. Teams took some risk on these prospects, but they could end up being among the best picks in this draft when we look back at it years later.
Trey Lance, QB, 49ers (Round 1, Overall pick No. 3)
It’s not hard to see why Kyle Shanahan believes in Trey Lance’s potential. He’s got the right makeup — size (6’4, 226 pounds), a strong arm, incredible athleticism, and quick decision-making — to be a star quarterback in the NFL. The last time Lance played a full season, he threw for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, and zero interceptions while also rushing for 1,100 yards and 14 more scores.
That was also two years ago, at the FCS level. Lance appeared in just one game in 2020, and it did not go very well. Yet even with the capable if not elite Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster, Shanahan liked Lance’s film so much that he gave up valuable draft capital to trade up and get a quarterback who can’t even legally drink for a few more days. If Lance reaches his ceiling, then the 49ers are set at quarterback for years to come and don’t have to worry about not having a first-round pick until 2024. If not, then the next regime in San Francisco will have to figure it out.
Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Dolphins (Round 1, Overall pick No. 18)
In a draft not deep on edge rushers, the Dolphins used one of their first-round picks to make Phillips the first one off the board. If you look at his stats last season and his pro day numbers, it’s difficult to believe he lasted as long as he did: 15.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks, 42 pressures, one interception, and a 4.56-second 40.
The major issue with Phillips is his health. He dealt with ankle and wrist injuries at UCLA, and then briefly retired from football after suffering a third concussion in 2018. Phillips didn’t play in 2019, then returned to the field in Miami the next year. There, he showed he has the tools to be a dominant pass rusher, but his concussion history will always be a concern.
Landon Dickerson, C, Eagles (Round 2, Overall pick No. 37)
Dickerson would’ve been a first-round pick if he hadn’t torn his ACL in December. His other ACL, that is. He tore the ACL in his right knee as a freshman in 2016, then played in just six total games the next two years while battling injuries to each ankle. In his five years at Alabama, Dickerson only played a full season once, in 2019.
If he can stay healthy — something that has eluded the Eagles in recent years — then he can be a perennial All-Pro type on that offensive line, at either guard or center. Or he could end up being another Sidney Jones, a similar gamble that didn’t pay off for GM Howie Roseman not so long ago.
Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals (Round 2, Overall pick No. 49)
Despite playing for Purdue, aka the Big Ten’s version of a cursed image, Moore was one of the most dynamic playmakers in all of college football as a freshman. Then injuries happened, and Moore only played in seven games the next two years. He’s also only 5’7, meaning Kyler Murray finally has a teammate to be the Rosalynn Carter to his Joe Biden:
I’m a fan of what Moore can do on the field, both as a slot receiver and a kick returner, and I think Kliff Kingsbury can draw up ways to get him the ball.
But Moore has to stay healthy, and the Cardinals’ recent track record of drafting WRs hasn’t been particularly strong:
D'Wayne Eskridge, WR, Seahawks (Round 2, Overall pick No. 56)
The Seahawks only had three picks in this draft, and they used their first one on the small but speedy Western Michigan product. Even though he’s coming off a breakout season (averaging 213 total yards per game), this seemed to be a little early for Eskridge. I’m a little surprised the Seahawks didn’t try to trade down for more picks here and then draft him later.
On the other hand, Eskridge’s skills are a good match for what the Seahawks need, and they’ve had pretty good luck lately with second-round receivers.
Tre’ McKitty, TE, Chargers (Round 3, Overall pick No. 97)
This was another pick that felt too early, even after the Chargers lost Hunter Henry in free agency. McKitty wasn’t targeted much last season at Georgia (he had six catches for 108 yards and a touchdown), though he was also dealing with a knee injury. His blocking abilities can help Justin Herbert right away, but his receiving game needs more work. Luckily, he has a chance to learn from Jared Cook and Donald Parham.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers (Round 4, Overall pick No. 126)
Hubbard was awesome at Oklahoma State, both on the field and for publicly calling out his OAN-brained coach. He rushed for 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2019, and while he wasn’t as productive in his half-season 2020, I think Matt Rhule and Joe Brady can find ways for him to contribute.
Unlike RB No. 1 Christian McCaffrey, Hubbard isn’t the most explosive rusher. Plus, there’s a risk drafting a running back in pretty much any round these days. If it works out, though, let’s all make sure we give credit to Rhule’s wife.
Shaun Wade, CB, Ravens (Round 5, Overall pick No. 160)
Once you get to Day 3, teams are basically playing with house money. If a late-round pick ends up making an impact, that’s great, you look like a genius. If not, eh oh well, that’s what happens.
The chance the Ravens took on Wade is that he can still play like his old self. Wade could’ve been a first-round pick if he had entered the draft last year. Instead, he returned to Ohio State, moved outside, dealt with injuries all season, and consequently struggled. His draft stock took a major hit, but Wade might’ve landed in the perfect spot. Not only can Wade return to his nickel spot in Baltimore, but DC Wink Martindale can let him loose on quarterbacks as a blitzer.
This could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft, if Wade can earn playing time at a crowded position. — SH