Our lock solid Super Bowl 56 picks (in which we each take a different team)
At least one of us will be right!
Due to a personal matter, we were unable to send out a Wednesday newsletter this week. We’re back today with our final game pick of the 2021-22 NFL season.
Super Bowl 56 is already different from each one that has come before it. For the first time ever, there will not be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed playing in the championship game. In fact, this is the first Super Bowl meeting for two teams seeded No. 4 or lower (both the Bengals and Rams are four seeds). It’s also the youngest head coaching matchup in the game’s history — Sean McVay is 36 and Zac Taylor is 38.
No matter who wins on Sunday, one quarterback and one head coach will earn their first Super Bowl ring. Unless Von Miller takes home the award again, then a new Super Bowl MVP will be crowned. And technically, one franchise can deliver another first for its city — the Bengals have never won the Super Bowl, while the Rams have never won one while they’ve resided in LA.
After watching 10 Super Bowls featuring Tom Brady in the last two decades, doesn’t this feel like a breath of fresh air?
The Rams were the opponent in Brady’s final title run with the Patriots three years ago. This time, McVay’s squad is the favored team. The Rams have held steady as 4- to 4.5-point favorites over the last week.
There’s good news for the Bengals, though. Since 2007, 3+ point underdogs are 7-2 in the Super Bowl, and in the last 10 years, the underdog has won six times.
So who will be holding the Lombardi Trophy around 10:20 p.m. ET on Sunday: Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford? We weigh in below.
Sarah’s Super Bowl 56 pick
Let me preface this with two notes: 1) I’m just 6-6 with my picks this postseason and 2) I have correctly guessed the Super Bowl winner only once in the last four years (the Patriots over the Rams in Super Bowl 53).
I’m taking the Rams on Sunday, and based on my recent track record, that’s perhaps a positive sign for Bengals fans. I believe it’ll be a competitive game, one in which the Rams build a lead, the Bengals chip away at the deficit to make it tight in the fourth quarter, but the Rams are able to put it away late.
I don’t feel overly confident in my prediction, especially considering how resilient the Bengals have proven to be. So before I explain why I picked the Rams, I’ll offer up a few reasons that Cincinnati could take home its first Super Bowl victory.
Why the Bengals could win
About once or twice a decade, we’ll see a true fairytale season play out in the NFL. One team with longshot title odds at the beginning of the year starts to jell at just the right time and wins the whole thing. The last time we witnessed such a magical run was when the Eagles upset the Patriots in Super Bowl 52.
These teams usually have a tough mentality, a strong locker room, and an unflappable quarterback. All of that describes the Bengals.
Joe Burrow is built for moments like this
During the singing of the national anthem on Sunday, the camera will pan to Burrow, and we’ll get a closeup of his face before the biggest game of his career. I can guarantee you that he’ll look composed and dialed in because he doesn’t get rattled in these high-pressure situations. He doesn’t lose them very often either — his last playoff loss happened when he was a senior in high school (and yes, he still thinks about it).
When Burrow said “we’re coming for it all” last month, I appreciated the spirit but doubted the Bengals could make it this far. But they keep proving me wrong, and their second-year quarterback — who has sometimes been forced to call his own plays — has been the steady hand that has guided them to three wins, and two upsets, so far this postseason.
The Bengals never quit
The Bengals needed a fourth-down interception to hold off the Raiders in the Wild Card Round. They got two key stops in the fourth quarter, and a game-winning field goal, to upset the Titans the next week. They were down 21-3 against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and didn’t panic.
Whether it’s Burrow’s confidence rubbing off on everyone else in the locker room, or simply their natural team chemistry, these Bengals will never stop fighting. That determination could be the answer to outlasting the Rams, who are prone to mental lapses and surrendering leads.
They can get pressure on Matthew Stafford without blitzing
The Rams’ pass rush has been all the talk before the Super Bowl, and for good reason (more on that in a minute). But the Bengals’ pass rush is pretty fearsome on its own, and it can follow a similar, albeit not exact, blueprint to what it did to slow down Patrick Mahomes in the second half two weeks ago.
The Cincy D dropped eight and rushed three, generating pressure without blitzing. (That last point will be pivotal for both defenses because Burrow and Stafford are lights out against the blitz.) This year, Stafford posted just a 26.6 QBR when teams dropped eight and threw two touchdowns against three picks. Although Stafford has taken care of the ball this postseason (one interception and one should’ve been interception), he ended the regular season on a turnover spree: He coughed the ball up nine times in the final four weeks. The Bengals have forced seven turnovers during the playoffs and have a +5 turnover margin. Whoever makes more mistakes will likely lose, and it’s reasonable to believe that could be Stafford.
Why I’m taking the Rams
All that being said, I’m sticking with my gut reaction and picking the Rams. They do not have a huge advantage at any position, but they do have, as former Rams running back Malcolm Brown put it, “dogs”:
That includes, most notably, Aaron Donald, the best player to take the field Sunday and someone who can make life hell for Burrow. Let’s start there.
The Rams’ biggest strength will face off against the Bengals’ biggest weakness
By now, we all know that Cincinnati’s offensive line has struggled to protect Burrow throughout his career. Just a few weeks ago, he was sacked nine times in a game — and won, something that had never happened in the playoffs before.
The Bengals can’t let Burrow be harassed all game to have any chance of winning this time. If Burrow doesn’t have time to throw, he can’t get the ball to Ja’Marr Chase and the rest of his top-tier playmakers. The problem? He’ll be staring down the most ferocious pass rush in the league, led by Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd.
All three recorded at least 9.5 sacks this season (4.5 of Miller’s came while he was still with the Broncos). Together, they’ve combined for 4.5 sacks during the playoffs, which might not seem impressive … but then you look at the havoc they, especially Donald, can wreak without sacking the QB:
Donald and Miller each have totaled 16 pressures this postseason, more than any other player. I’m legitimately worried about Burrow’s health because I have no idea how the Bengals are going to slow down Donald and Co. And we know based on Super Bowl history, most of all in the last decade, that the team that can get after the quarterback more is usually the one that ends up as champs.
Matthew Stafford’s deep ball can set the Rams up for success
Stafford’s deep-ball skills were among the best in the league this season, and he carried that over into the playoffs (minus his most egregious throw that turned into an even more egregious drop).
He can’t simply drop back and go deep all game long, though. Bengals safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III are too savvy for that, as Patrick Mahomes knows. When the opportunity presents itself for a big play, however, Stafford should not hesitate to strike, whether it’s going downfield to NFL Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, or Van Jefferson (but maybe not Ben Skowronek).
If Sean McVay can scheme up just enough plays to get one of those guys open deep, and Stafford can capitalize on the chances, then the Bengals will have a hard time trying to keep up.
Sean McVay’s been waiting for his chance at redemption
A few years ago, McVay had been labeled the NFL’s wunderkind coach. Then, when he got his chance to go up against Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl, McVay laid a huge egg. The Rams scored a mere three points in a snoozer of a game most of us would like to forget.
McVay doesn’t have that luxury, not with his Marilu Henner-esque memory. He’s probably been forced to relive that Super Bowl every day for the last three years.
Now he has what Yasper from The Afterparty would call his “one shot twice.” McVay has likely learned a few lessons from his big-stage failure, especially about adapting his offensive plan as needed during the game. He hasn’t been infallible in the postseason (remember his strange challenges against the 49ers?), but he does have the edge in both ability and experience over his former QBs coach Zac Taylor.
McVay has had three years to stew and brainstorm for his Super Bowl redemption, as has Donald:
And if Donald in particular wants that ring, I’m going to bet on him to get it.
Christian’s picks
Welp, I am a sterling 0-6 since the Wild Card Round. Just bewilderingly wrong about everything. Now I kinda want to keep that streak alive, so keep that in mind with this one. First, let’s talk about both sides.
Why the Bengals (+165) will win
There are three things the Bengals absolutely need to do to win this game. I wrote all about them here.
Be productive on first down, since third-and-long situations are going to be dire against Aaron Donald and the Rams’ pass rush.
Trust Jessie Bates’ single-high safety coverage to erase deep balls and let Vonn Bell use his hard-hitting tackling to reduce Cooper Kupp’s yards-after-catch.
Be as aggressive as possible in the red zone. Evan McPherson is a great kicker, but if he has to settle for four field goals again the Bengals may not recover from leaving all those points on the field.
Cincinnati has the personnel to pull this off. The lingering question is whether third-year head coach Zac Taylor is the right man for the job. If you want the full breakdown, I’ve got you covered here.
Why the Rams (-200) will win
Los Angeles has more ways to win than Cincinnati, which leaves the home team as an obvious favorite. Still. the Bengals have a Team of Destiny feel about them, which means this’ll be no cakewalk. These are the three things the Rams need to do to win Super Bowl 56. And here’s the full breakdown.
Move Aaron Donald across the defensive line to let him feast on mismatches — particularly against right tackle Isaiah Prince. A crumpling pocket is the easiest way to deter Cincy’s deep passing game.
Clear out space for Cooper Kupp by stretching the field with Odell Beckham JR. and Van Jefferson.
Use press coverage to prevent Burrow from sustaining drives with quick-hit passes. Make sure Ja’Marr Chase is bracketed with safety help if he’s motioned away from Jalen Ramsey.
Los Angeles has the better, more experienced team. The Rams are favored for a reason, and you can read all about what they need to do to win here.
The pick
My brain says the Rams win by a touchdown. Los Angeles has a better defense than anyone the Bengals have faced. If this game is won in the trenches, Stafford’s team should have little trouble making this a comfortable, and ultimately boring, win.
My gut, however, is fully aware of what’s happened the last three weeks. Each time I thought Cincinnati was done, it escaped with a walk-off field goal. The Bengals have papered over their flaws and played as more than the sum of their parts.
So, logic be damned, give me:
Bengals 23, Rams 20
And, in proper Cincinnati fashion, this ends with Evan McPherson’s sixth walk-off field goal of his rookie campaign.