Preseason Worries, Real and Imagined
The regular season is still two weeks away, but that's not stopping anyone from jumping to conclusions. Let's sort out what's actually worth worrying about.
For some, worrying has been the default mode for the last 18 months. So it’s practically second nature for the worrywarts among NFL fans to catastrophize even the slightest setback during the preseason.
Key word there: preseason. We do not recommend automatically jumping to the worst conclusions for preseason football, when teams are giving their starters minimal (if any) amounts of playing time and fielding the most vanilla version of their offense.
That said, there have been some unfortunate developments this month that even the most Pollyannaish of us can’t ignore. Let’s take a look at which ones are worth your concern and which aren’t.
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t quiiiiite looked like Patrick Mahomes
In the Chiefs’ preseason debut, Patrick Mahomes took the field for a quick three-and-out, completing one of his two throws for 4 yards. He saw more extensive playing time in their second tune-up game when they visited the Cardinals.
Mahomes’ stat line wasn’t very pretty — 10 of 18 for 78 yards and one interception — but he didn’t look bad, either. He was just a little … off. He missed a few open receivers (usually Mecole Hardman), and while his revamped offensive line mostly held up, the one time it didn’t, Mahomes flashed back to Super Bowl 55 and his ill-advised throw was picked off:
Worry or nah? Nah. He’s still Patrick Mahomes, after all. The same Patrick Mahomes who can can make magic happen any time he touches the football:
The bigger concern for the Chiefs is the same as it’s been for most of the offseason: who can be the reliable No. 2 WR (or No. 3, if you want to include tight end Travis Kelce)? KC let Sammy Watkins walk in free agency, which opened up an opportunity for Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson to take his place. So far, it’s been a mixed bag.
If Tyreek Hill misses time (he sat out the Cardinals game with a hamstring strain) or Kelce gets hurt (he’s almost 32 and has dealt with back issues recently), then the offense, and by extension, Mahomes, might end up taking a step back. Both should still be fine, though. — SH
The Rams’ running game is gonna hamstring Matthew Stafford
Los Angeles has had some terrible running back luck. 2020 breakout rusher Cam Akers was lost for the season due to a torn Achilles at the start of training camp. Darrell Henderson, promoted to RB1 in Akers’ absence, is nursing a thumb injury and only has 177 regular season carries in his two years as a pro. Raymond Calais, a second-year pro who averaged nearly eight yards per carry at Louisiana, got a chance to step into a bigger role this August and promptly broke his foot in the preseason’s second week.
As a result, the Rams’ non-quarterbacks have averaged just 3.4 yards per carry while being buoyed by rookie seventh-rounder Jake Funk — a player who appeared in just 10 games his last three seasons at Maryland due to injury. Los Angeles traded away fourth- and sixth-round picks to free Sony Michel from the lower levels of New England’s depth chart, but Michel’s yards and attempts per game have decreased in each of the years after Bill Belichick made him a first round pick. With only 26 career catches, he adds little utility out of the backfield if he’s not running the ball.
Worry or nah? At least a little. The dropoff from an explosive runner like Akers to a platoon back in Henderson and a plodder like Michel — his 2.1 yards before contact were a full yard less than fellow Patriots Damien Harris last season, highlighting his indecision and lack of burst through blocking lanes — is significant. Sean McVay’s best Rams teams relied on Todd Gurley to add value as both a pass catcher from the backfield and as a potential home run threat on the ground. Akers could have provided 90 percent of that on the ground (but much less through the air). Henderson and Michel are incapable of approaching that level of efficiency.
But Matthew Stafford played 12 seasons with the Lions. He knows what it’s like to hand off to a perpetually cursed running back rotation. He had one 1,000-yard rusher in Detroit and that was late-stage Reggie Bush. His offenses ranked in the top 10 in rushing efficiency zero times and in the bottom 10 seven different years.
So if anyone’s gonna be able to throw through a weak RB stable, it’s Stafford. Let’s not sleep on Henderson/Michel, however. Henderson averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry and 2.0 yards after contact last fall. His broken tackle rate was better than Akers’. Michel had a career-best 5.7 yards per rush in 2020, albeit in only nine games. His 3.6 yards after contact would have been best in the league if he had enough carries to qualify and his 8.8 attempts per broken tackle would have ranked fifth — ahead of Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook. Neither guy adds much in the passing game, but hell; that’s what Tyler Higbee, the top value-added tight end in the league, is there for. — CD
Ja’Marr Chase is struggling to make the transition to the NFL
For much of the pre-draft process, the Bengals seemed like a lock to take offensive tackle Penei Sewell with the fifth overall pick. Then, one of Joe Burrow’s former teammates emerged as the favorite. It made sense, despite the Bengals’ ongoing problems along their offensive line. Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow were fire together at LSU; Chase led all of FBS with 1,780 receiving yards and 20 touchdown catches in LSU’s national championship season.
That … hasn’t been the case so far in Cincinnati. After sitting out last season, Chase’s transition to the NFL hasn’t been exactly smooth. The 21-year-old receiver dropped all three of his targets in the second preseason game, without Burrow:
And then he had a couple more drops in practice two days later, with Burrow. The Bengals said they’re not sweating Chase’s miscues, but if the rookie continues to drop the ball, figuratively and literally, the more Cincinnati will be second-guessed for passing on a highly regarded left tackle.
Worry or nah? Nah. Whether Chase is dealing with the usual rookie WR adjustment to the NFL, or he’s still shaking off the rust from missing the 2020 season, there’s no reason to sound the alarms yet. Once Chase gets more comfortable in the offense — which should happen the more he’s able to play with Burrow — then he’ll be making plays like this on the regular:
Besides, Chase is already showing signs of coming out of this slump. The Bengals might not be great this season, but they should have at least one of the most promising young receiving corps in the NFL. — SH
The Vikings can’t even sniff the end zone
In two preseason games, the Vikings have scored exactly one touchdown: Troy Dye’s 33-yard pick-six against the Colts. Their other points have all come on Greg Joseph kicks. So technically, the scoring breakdown is:
Greg Joseph, 10 points
Vikings defense, 6 points
Vikings offense, 0 points
Both backup quarterbacks, Jake Browning and Kellen Mond, were lousy in the first preseason game (it’s why Christian suggested last week that the Vikings should trade for Gardner Minshew). The next weekend, they were joined in their atrocious play by Kirk Cousins, who was under center for three drives and completed 5 of 7 passes for just 23 yards … and none of those completions went to a wide receiver. He did target Adam Thielen once, which led to the receiver leaving the game with an injury (had Thielen caught the pass, he likely would’ve been hurt much worse).
You might be tempted to chalk up Cousins’ checkdown approach to the absence of No. 1 receiver Justin Jefferson, a work-in-progress offensive line, and the preseason in general. The problem with that is that Cousins hasn’t been much better in practice. Since returning to the team from the Covid-19 list, Cousins hasn’t looked crisp. Another red flag is he doesn’t seem perturbed with how the offense performed against the Colts:
Based on that and his anti-vax stance, I’m beginning to think Cousins doesn’t live in the same reality as the rest of us.
Worry or nah? Worry somewhat. I’d be surprised if the Minnesota offense continued to play so poorly during the season, especially once Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and rookie tackle Christian Darrisaw are added to the mix. The Vikings were pretty successful in the red zone last season, after all.
But with a first-time offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak, Gary’s son), a quarterback whose play, past and present, isn’t very inspiring, and lingering vaccine hesitancy on the team (poor Mike Zimmer), it’s hard to trust them to turn things around in any dramatic sense. The good news, though, is that at least the defense is poised to turn to its dominating ways. — SH
The Cardinals offense can’t be this bad, right?
It’s a very small sample size through two exhibition games, but here are some preseason stats from Arizona’s starting skill players:
Kyler Murray: 1-4, 2 yards (eight rushing yards)
Chase Edmonds: four carries, 13 yards, one catch
James Conner: two carries, one yard, zero catches
A.J. Green: one target, zero catches
As a result, Air Raid scientist Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has scored only two touchdowns in August. The running game has been efficient, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The passing game has not; the Cardinals’ 5.4 yards per pass attempt would have ranked dead last in the NFL last season. The team’s most accomplished wideout so far has been 2021 second-round pick Rondale Moore, who has six catches on nine opportunities … but for only 38 yards (4.2 yards per target).
Cardinals football should be a lot of things this fall, but one descriptor that shouldn’t fit is “boring.” Yet the preseason returns have painted the picture of a vanilla offense that looks more suited for the 1980s Big Ten rather than the pass-heavy NFL of the last decade. Is this how the Kingsbury era ends; not with a bang but with entirely too many short crossing routes short of the sticks?
Worry or nah? Nah. Murray has thrown four passes this preseason. DeAndre Hopkins, the engine behind last year’s offense, hasn’t taken the field. Without many key position battles to worry about, the 1s have barely taken the field in Arizona.
Despite that, Kingsbury’s team has still generated six explosive plays of 20+ yards in those two games, making guys like Greg Dortch and Eno Benjamin look good in the process. The former Texas Tech head coach knows 2021 could be his last year in the NFL if he can’t lead the Cardinals to the postseason, but he’s not tipping his hand in games that don’t count. Instead, he’s trying to figure out who can fill out the depth chart behind Hopkins after 2020 saw players like Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, and KeeSean Johnson struggle to make a consistent impact.
Arizona still may not be good this fall — Kingsbury’s inability to make changes as the season goes on has led to some very disappointing finishes — but the offense should still provide plenty of highlight reel fodder and fantasy points. — CD
The Jets defense is falling apart
In four of the last five seasons, the Jets defense has ranked in the bottom third of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. But less than two weeks ago, linebacker C.J. Mosley advised everyone not to sleep on this year’s defense. "If people come with that same mentality, they're going to get their a— blown out," he said poetically.
His confidence was not without warrant, either. New head coach Robert Saleh is a defensive mastermind, while the unit welcomed some reinforcements this offseason, including Mosley (who opted out last year), prized free agent pass rusher Carl Lawson, and veteran defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins.
Soon after Mosley’s warning, Lawson was lost for the season with a torn Achilles, linebacker Jarrad Davis’ ankle injury will keep him sidelined for two months, and defensive end Vinny Curry will miss the season due to a recently diagnosed blood disorder. In between all of that, the starting defense gave up two touchdown drives to the Packers’ third-string offense in a preseason game, then let Jalen Hurts shine in a joint practice with the Eagles. Don’t tell Mosley I said this, but that sounds like the same old Jets to me.
Worry or nah?: Worry. I’m not ready to forecast total gloom and doom, because I think Saleh is smart (though, considering the 49ers’ defensive injuries last year too, he might be cursed). The Jets should also get talented young defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back soon following his foot injury.
But losing Lawson, who was the best player in training camp, for the year is brutal. Since the secondary is a weak spot — ESPN ranked their cornerbacks as the worst in the league — the Jets were counting on their defensive line to carry the load. Without Lawson to generate pressure, that’s a much tougher task. They could always trade for a pass rusher, but the Jets defense is not in good shape right before the season begins. — SH
Joe Burrow isn’t ready
If you’ve followed the Bengals through training camp (and it’s understandable if you haven’t), you may have noticed that it’s been an up and down month for quarterback Joe Burrow. Earlier this month, he was talking openly about his struggles, thought it sounded like more of a mental thing, as in getting over being rattled by pressure after tearing his ACL in late November last season.
Here’s what he said on August 10:
“It’s frustrating right now, more so just not feeling like myself. I know I’ve put the work in to make my knee feel good, make my body ready for the season. It’s just now trusting my abilities, trusting my work, trusting everything.”
This week, Burrow looked more like the prodigious rookie we saw prior to his knee injury last season. Even making the connection with the afore mentioned Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bengals are going to give Burrow some playing time in their final preseason game this weekend, a reversal of their earlier intention to keep him out of action. Why? To let him get a feel of game speed again, or something closer to it.
Worry or nah? It’s pretty rare that a player is hitting his ceiling the season after a major knee injury. Burrow hurt his knee late last season, so his offseason was focused on rehab rather than gearing up for his sophomore effort. He’s got a ton of receiving talent, so that should help. It’s more of a concern for his fantasy value this year than his overall career. One area that could be affected is his running ability. Last season he ran 37 times for 142 yards and three touchdowns; he’s unlikely to be as productive on the ground until he trusts his knee again. --RVB
Urban Meyer is losing his team
Okay, the actual headline wasn’t quite that strong. It was actually that Jaguars players “aren’t thrilled” with Meyer. It’s no secret the Jaguars look like, well, the Jaguars so far through the preseason. The offense is especially ugly, and losing rookie bell cow Travis Etienne in a meaningless exhibition game isn’t exactly lifting anyone’s spirits.
Outside of Jags Twitter, I’m not sure anyone really expected the Jaguars to be world beaters this year. Their benchmark is to at least beat the rudderless Texans this season. But I’d probably ease back on any HMS Bounty predictions.
Worry or not? No. Read that story with a critical eye and it immediately becomes clear that it’s really not much more than media gossip. First, the report comes from notorious crank Pete Prisco, a man who makes Mike Florio seem like The Dude. And here’s the crux of it.
“He brought a bunch of college-like things to the program which I don't necessarily agree with. I've heard some of the players aren't thrilled with them either."
Prisco not agreeing with the supposed “college-like” things tells you a lot. But what exactly are those frustrations? Allow Pete to elaborate:
"One of his assistants on the field during practice with a boom mic telling everybody to hydrate, hustle and get to the next series. Obviously, he's a work in progress. He's been a good football coach everywhere he's been. It's a lot different when you recruit guys to your school and you've got a bunch of players, the five stars, then it is when you're trying to build something."
We’ll see how things go when the Jaguars get into the season and L’s start to pile up, but for now, there is nothing to worry about here. --RVB