Please, stop and reflect for a moment today
And also to read about what's next for the Saints as well as the four teams still playing.
You come here for the quality football content (and we thank you that!). We want to provide a nice break from the usual drek that fills most inboxes these days. But don’t be lulled into the false notion that sports is purely an escape from the nastier parts of reality that we have to confront. Sarah, Christian, and myself have on the NFL beat for a long time, and over the last four years or so it’s never been more clear that sports and what’s happening in the world outside it cannot be separated.
Today is a day for reflection. A day to look back on [gestures wildly] all this that we’ve been through, and to think about the work in front of us. The world isn’t going to magically become a friendly, more accepting place overnight, and it sure as hell isn’t going to happen if we choose to zone out on sports for huge chunks of the week and do nothing to help create the kind of reality we want to have.
The truth is that we probably shouldn’t have had an NFL season this year, or any sports. 400,000 people are dead. And in a few days this virus, and the carelessness, selfishness, and political gamesmanship that facilitated its spread, will have killed more Americans than the machine guns and bombs of World War II. We’ve lost mothers, fathers, children, and people we would have been watching games with. They’re gone. It’s hard to stop and think about that for even a moment, because every time I do, I can’t help but cry a little bit. It didn’t have to be this way.
It sounds naive, but there’s a lot we can do as individuals to inject at least a tiny ray of light into the world. You can march, vote, get involved in local politics, volunteer at the public school (whether your kid goes there or not), check in on your neighbors, or even use sports as a bridge to reach out to someone who’s struggling and needs someone to lift them up… you’ll be surprised how even small gestures make a difference in someone else’s life as well as your own.
If we just zone out on the conference championships or spring training or whatever thing we want to use as a distraction, we risk cutting ourselves off from a world that needs us all to be present right now. Make an effort to see the humanity in the players on the field and the other people watching them play. Today’s a good day, but if we want more good days, we’re going to have to put in the work. But if you do that, you’ll find sports (and so many other things) to be a far more enjoyable experience. —RVB
What comes next for the Saints?
Drew Brees’ career ended not with the supernova implosion of a dying star, but with the soft fizzle of a spilled Big Gulp. The future Hall of Famer leaned into the memes about his arm strength by not only throwing a laundry list of short passes, but doing so poorly enough to record a passer rating so low he would have been better off chucking each attempt into the turf in front of him.
That withering performance came on the heels of a Sunday Jay Glazer report that this Divisional Round game would be Brees’ last in the Superdome. Though he failed to find the ending he wanted (and possibly deserved), the 42-year-old leaves behind a stunning legacy in New Orleans: one Super Bowl title, nine winning seasons, nine postseason victories, and more than 500 total touchdown passes in white and gold.
Brees hasn’t made any official announcement about his career, and it’s notable he’s under contract for the upcoming season. Still, one quick look into the franchise’s future brings up a painful truth.
The Saints are better off if Brees retires
That’s a weird sentence to write, but it’s true. I am in no way, shape, or form a Taysom Hill believer, but New Orleans’ overall performance didn’t drop off in a major way with the gadget play QB as starter. Brees went 9-3 behind center in 2020; Hill was 3-1. Brees’ 16-game touchdown:interception ratio, including rushing TDs, was 35:8. Hill’s was 32:8. The Saints averaged 363 yards of offense and 1.25 turnovers per game in Hill’s starts and 381 and 1 per week under Brees.
Would you trust Hill to lead a comeback in a playoff game? Hell no! Would you trust the 2021 version of Brees, only with another year of aging sapping his arm strength? Absolutely not.
Neither is a great situation, but Brees’ retirement would wipe $36 million from the league’s worst salary cap situation. New Orleans sits at an estimated $99.8 million over next year’s projected spending limit. Just releasing him would leave at least $11m (if designated a post-June 1 cut) and up to $22m in dead money on the team’s books. Major decisions loom for players like Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, Malcom Brown, and maybe even building blocks like Ryan Ramczyk and Marshon Lattimore. New Orleans would much rather suffer a slight downgrade at QB and save a boatload of vital cash than keep him for another low-impact year and potentially part with the players who could carry them to post-Brees prosperity.
New Orleans, of course, wouldn’t have to just depend on Hill. The Saints could follow their 2019 and 2020 examples and add a buy-low veteran late in the offseason like they did with Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston. They could re-sign Winston, who launched a trick-play 56-yard touchdown pass in that playoff loss but otherwise threw just 11 passes in the regular season. This spring should see several useful veterans available at a discount rate, including another former NFC South star in Cam Newton.
Newton’s an interesting case, as throwing him into the lineup would avoid the kind of gameplan whiplash the transition from a 42-year-old Brees to the stronger-armed, more mobile Hill caused in the course of the season. Newton would get the chance to prove he can still pass the ball effectively while throwing darts to Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Alvin Kamara rather than Bill Belichick’s immaculate failure pile of wideouts. Feels like a win/win!
Ok, so Hill + notable inexpensive veteran signing at quarterback, then what?
There will be no splashy free agent signings in New Orleans, thanks to its prime location in cap hell. This also means several 2020 players headed to the open market are unlikely to have their egress impeded. That’s not entirely surprising for players like Jared Cook and Sheldon Rankins, who were solid contributors to the cause but who look like their best days may be behind them (this is especially sad for Rankins, a versatile pass rushing defensive tackle who has yet to return to his 2018 form following a torn Achilles). It’s a much bigger blow to see PFWA All-Pro Trey Hendrickson leave.
Hendrickson provided a team-high 13.5 sacks and 25 quarterback hits on a bargain salary of less than $800k. He’d be excellent insurance to keep up the team’s pass rushing threat as Cameron Jordan eases into the latter stages of his career, but the Saints can’t afford to keep him around. They also can’t afford to find an inside linebacker replacement for Alex Anzalone, who was repeatedly targeted and torched by the Buccaneers in that Divisional Round loss, or to keep four-year starter at safety Marcus Williams.
This all means a top three defense is due for a drop off, even before cuts and trades slice through the players currently under contract for 2021. The only major weapon general manager Mickey Loomis has against this attrition is his upcoming draft picks.
That’s … not great! New Orleans won’t make its first selection until the 28th pick, and while there are plenty of plug and play starters who may be available at that point, the lack of a centralized combine — the NFL announced that prospects would be limited to pro days, virtual interviews, and limited medical screenings rather than the typical event in Indianapolis — will make that difficult.
No marquee pick and reduced scouting opportunities means the Saints would benefit from a shotgun approach when it comes to adding young talent. The good news is two third-round compensatory picks should be coming their way thanks to the Panthers’ signing Teddy Bridgewater away last spring and the Falcons poaching executive Terry Fontenot. The bad news is, barring another unexpected comp pick, they aren’t scheduled to make any selections after Round 4. Loomis can add to that haul *and* reduce his salary cap footprint with a few savvy trades.
Who fits that bill? Kwon Alexander is an expensive luxury, and his entire $13m salary for 2021 can be moved without leaving a cent on the team’s cap sheet as dead money. His departure would leave a hole at inside linebacker, but that’s a position of need across the league that could bring a better return than the fifth-rounder the Saints gave up, along with Kiko Alonso, to bring him to New Orleans in 2020. Janoris Jenkins has been an abov- average corner the past two years and could be worth a Day 3 pick.
Giving up on Pro Bowlers Ramcyzk or Lattimore would be an extremely tough pill to swallow. Moving either — which again, not recommended but this is an emergency — would bring significant draft returns. You could also theoretically move on from Michael Thomas in a post-June 1 trade, but that would also be head scratching given he’s coming off his worst season, and arguably his worst game, as a pro, is set for multiple offseason surgeries, and his market value has never been lower.
Finding a trade partner may be difficult since some clubs will be patient enough to wait out whatever painful releases New Orleans must undertake this offseason and swoop in with free agent contracts instead. However, others may opt for the security of a done deal or the upgrade of getting a player who otherwise wouldn’t be available.
Either way, there aren’t a lot of great trade candidates available for a team desperately in need of clearing ballast from a foundering ship.
Let’s talk draft targets then
Sure. The 28th pick is going to be a tough spot to target the franchise quarterback New Orleans needs most (unless they think Hill is that guy, which they shouldn’t). The Saints could package picks to move up in the draft, but we already covered why that’s a bad idea. Fortunately, a deep draft should provide opportunities to fill some gaps with players who can work their way into the starting lineup in 2021.
Todd McShay’s first mock draft has Sean Payton adding Missouri linebacker Nick Bolton to the mix to shore up the interior position and provide a likely upgrade from Anzalone. CBS’s Ryan Wilson has them taking Tulsa’s Zaven Collins, who would provide a little extra versatility and pass rushing to the position. LSU’s Jabril Cox and Duke star Chris Rumph would also make sense with the 28th pick … or could be tempting to sit back and wait on a day later.
Loomis may also be tempted to beef up his pass rush with a pass-rushing 4-3 defensive end. Former first-round pick Marcus Davenport should get the chance to work his way back into the starting lineup with Hendrickson’s departure, but the club will also be balancing his play with finding Jordan’s successor at the other end position. If someone like Michigan end (and Rhode Island high school football legend) Kwity Paye or Wake Forest’s Tarell Basham slide to the back end of the first round, the value there may be too much for the team to pass up.
The good news is there are several players who fit the Saints’ needs who currently grade out as Day 2 picks, per ESPN’s early prospect rankings. This could create a perfect opportunity for Loomis to Belichick himself — ship away a late first-rounder in exchange for multiple second- and third-round picks. There’s a universe where New Orleans turns No. 28 into a pair of starting linebackers and a high-upside young wideout who can all contribute for the next four years. The trick is finding those guys and waiting out a team desperate to work its way back into the first night of the draft.
That’s a big challenge, but everything about this Saints’ offseason is. New Orleans has a ready-made playoff roster and tons of talented players under contract, but the cost of bringing those guys together has the team nearly $100 million over next year’s projected salary cap. The Saints are a luxury cruise ship taking on water. Now management has to decide what valuable pieces can be tossed overboard and what stays in order to limp into port for repairs before next season. And it won’t just be dinner plates going over the rails — it’ll be vital pieces of equipment that could be the difference between sinking and staying afloat. — CD
One question for the four remaining playoff teams
By Sunday night, we’ll know which two teams will be headed to Super Bowl 55. Less importantly, we’ll know the answers to the questions I have for each team playing in this weekend’s conference championships.
Chiefs: Will Patrick Mahomes be healthy?
First, Mahomes has to clear concussion protocol. As of Tuesday, that hadn’t happened (even if I expect it will before Sunday). But that’s not the only potential issue ailing the reigning Super Bowl MVP; he also tweaked his ankle earlier in the game against the Browns and didn’t look entirely comfortable moving around after that.
The Bills have the firepower to match the Chiefs, especially if Mahomes’ mobility is in any way limited The Buffalo defense sold out to try to stop him when these teams met in Week 6. He threw for just 225 yards, though the Chiefs took advantage of open running lanes with a season-high 245 rushing yards. If he’s hampered at all, then the Bills won’t have to throw the kitchen sink at him to slow him down. If he’s not, then, well, he’ll be Patrick Mahomes.
Bills: Are they ready for the big stage?
The Bills have passed both of their first two postseason tests. They won their first playoff game in 25 years when they held off the Colts and then advanced to their first conference championship in 27 years when they took care of the Ravens.
The Colts and Ravens are very good teams; the Chiefs are on a whole other tier. But where do the Bills belong?
The Bills have proven themselves over and over this season, but one of their three losses this season came at home against the Chiefs. Getting payback for that earlier loss, on the defending champs’ own turf, would put them in the Super Bowl and bring them one step closer to their first ever title — if the Bills are ready for such a leap.
Bucs: Can they slow down the Packers’ red-hot offense (again)?
The Packers’ worst game of the season was a 38-10 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 6. Like, it was so bad that at one point, both teams put in their backup quarterbacks.
As we know, Green Bay bounced back, particularly on offense. It boasts the No. 1 offense, per DVOA and weighted DVOA (the latter of which emphasizes recent performances), and Aaron Rodgers is on the precipice of his third MVP award. As Davante Adams said, no team has been able to rein them in recently:
In the Divisional Round, Rodgers — who had a stinker of an outing in Tampa (0 TDs, 2 picks, a 35.4 passer rating) — guided the Packers to a 484-yard day. That was the most yards the Rams’ top-ranked defense gave up all season. The Bucs are no slouches on defense either, coming in at No. 5 in DVOA. But while they might have stopped them once already this season, this Packers offense has reached a new level in the three months since. The Bucs will need playmakers like Devin White to shine again.
Packers: Can the defense keep Tom Brady in check?
The Green Bay defense is pretty average in terms of efficiency (No. 17 in DVOA), but it has been getting the job done. In their last six games, the Packers have given up more than 18 points just once (a 31-24 win over the Lions). Granted, the only objectively good quarterback they faced in those other five games was Ryan Tannehill.
Last week, Jared Goff and his broken thumb managed a 105.9 passer rating against the Packers, though they sacked him four times. Tom Brady presents a much different challenge this week in his 14th conference championship game.
During their six-game winning streak, the Bucs have been jelling offensively and Brady’s been at his best all year. He has a 117.2 passer rating in that span and has thrown just one interception. His offensive line has kept him fairly clean, surrendering nine sacks (and just one last week against the Saints).
The Packers have defenders who can disrupt Brady and potentially cause him to make a mistake, even if they couldn’t do either in Week 6. Cornerback Jaire Alexander should be getting more attention for his quietly excellent season, Za'Darius Smith put together another double-digit sack season, and second-year edge rusher Rashan Gary is starting to come along. This is the Packers’ chance for a do-over, both for that earlier loss in Tampa and for last year’s 37-20 loss to the 49ers in the NFC title game. — SH