NFL Week 14: Such a drama queen
This Sunday started off slowly, until a few crucial games came down to the wire.
Week 14 kicked off with a Thursday night contest that started as a yawnfest and ended as a one-score thriller. The Vikings built a big lead and then almost let it get away from them, while the Steelers’ fourth-quarter rally came up just short. It was a familiar type of ending for both; all but one of the Vikings’ matchups have been decided by eight points or fewer, and they are 5-7 in those one-possession games. The Steelers are 6-2-1 in the same conditions.
Sunday followed a similar script. The early window was filled with blowouts and bad football, until a couple of games with major playoff implications took a dramatic turn in the fourth quarter. The same pattern held in the afternoon slate, too.
Let’s take a look at this Sunday’s biggest drama queen teams, and how their record in one-score games have affected their chances of making it to the postseason.
The Browns hang on against the never-say-die Ravens
Two weeks ago, the 8-3 Ravens took over the No. 1 seed in the AFC after they fended off the Browns in a tight Sunday Night Football showdown. The Ravens had gotten to the top due in large part to their resilience. They had put together five fourth-quarter comebacks and were 2-1 in overtime games. At that point, that Week 1 overtime loss was the only time they had come up short in a one-score game. They had done all that despite having the worst injury luck in the NFL this season.
Then the Ravens’ luck, injury and otherwise, took a turn for the worse. Last week, they answered the Steelers’ go-ahead touchdown when Lamar Jackson found Sammy Watkins in the end zone with 12 seconds left. Rather than send the game to overtime with an extra point attempt, John Harbaugh decided to go for two after the team lost star cornerback Marlon Humphrey to an injury. The two-point was juuuuust out of Mark Andrews’ reach.
This week, the angry injury gods targeted Jackson, who left early in the second quarter with a sprained ankle. The Browns held a 24-6 halftime advantage, but the second-half Ravens showed up once more. Backup Tyler Huntley, who already has one game-winning drive to his name this season, got Baltimore to within two points with just over a minute left. The Ravens perfectly executed the onside kick attempt and, with the best kicker in NFL history, had an excellent chance to win if they could gain about 15-20 yards on their last drive.
It didn’t work out this time, however. Cleveland’s defense showed up big on two plays in particular: Jadeveon Clowney sacked Huntley for 10-yard loss on second down, and then on fourth-and-6, Denzel Ward made the game-clinching tackle:
It was a much-needed win for the Browns, who have not had as much success in late-game situations (they have zero fourth-quarter comeback wins this season). And while the Ravens are still in the driver’s seat in the AFC North, the 7-6 Browns and Bengals (and 6-6-1 Steelers) are waiting in the wings if the Ravens’ injuries are too much for even them to overcome.
Ravens
Overall record: 8-5
Record in one-score games: 6-3
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 76%
Browns
Overall record: 7-6
Record in one-score games: 4-4
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 39%
The Cowboys hold off a feisty Washington team in a feistier game
Entering Week 14, the Cowboys were just 2-3 in their last five games. One common thread in all three of those losses: Dallas kept starting off slow, letting its opponent jump out to an early, and as it turned out insurmountable, lead.
That was not the case in Washington on Sunday. Despite some bulletin board material courtesy of Mike McCarthy, Washington couldn’t do much of anything right in the first half. Even when the defense intercepted Dak Prescott, Taylor Heinicke gave it right back three plays later. Aaaaand then again on the next drive:
As such, the Cowboys took a 24-0 lead into halftime and appeared to have a pivotal NFC East clash sewn up. But this Washington team, then on a four-game winning streak, doesn’t give up so easily. WFT started chipping away at its deficit in the second half and kept fighting (sometimes literally!) even after it lost both Heinicke and No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin to injuries.
Late in the game, Prescott threw a pick-six and then the Cowboys went three-and out on consecutive drives. That left Washington down seven with a chance to tie it. But the Dallas defense stepped up again and forced a fumble against backup QB Kyle Allen, effectively sealing the win.
The Cowboys haven’t officially won the NFC East, but they have a three-game lead with four weeks remaining. The division is theirs. And they proved to themselves that the defense can save the day when Prescott and the offense aren’t at their best. However, Sunday could also serve as a bit of a wakeup call: Don’t get too comfortable with any lead.
Meanwhile, Washington is still hanging on to that final wild card spot in the NFC. Its remaining schedule — all against NFC East competition — is manageable, but this team won’t make it back to the playoffs if it continues to make as many mistakes as it did against the Cowboys. And if its most important playmakers keep getting injured.
Cowboys
Overall record: 9-4
Record in one-score games: 5-2
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: >99%
Washington
Overall record: 6-7
Record in one-score games: 5-3
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 28%
The Bills can’t complete their frantic comeback in OT against the Bucs
The Bills were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders this season, but they’ve mostly only looked the part against inferior opponents. Even though all seven of their wins have been by double digits, just one was against a team that currently has a record above .500: the Chiefs, which came back in Week 5 prior to KC’s hot streak.
Every other team with a pulse it’s faced, Buffalo has just folded up like a table that a Bills fan would jump on. The Bills have had chances to come back in all but one of their losses, and yet they can never get out of their own way. That almost changed in Tampa Bay on Sunday against the defending champs.
The Bucs shot out to a 24-3 lead at the half and looked like they were cruising to their 10th win of the season. Then the Bills remembered that they weren’t playing in cold, windy Buffalo this week, and the offense started getting into a rhythm. Josh Allen accounted for three touchdowns on three straight drives and nearly made it 4-for-4, but the Bills stalled out in the red zone with just under a minute remaining. So they settled for a field goal, which tied the game and sent it to overtime.
The Bills won the coin toss and could have rode that momentum to a win. Instead, they went three-and-out and then Tom Brady things happened.
The Bucs are still alive in the race for the No. 1 spot in the NFC. If they can secure that coveted seed, and the bye week and homefield advantage that come with it, they can thank their ability to come through in the clutch. The Bucs have a perfect 5-0 record in one-possession games, best in the NFL.
The Bills are the exact opposite of that. Their 0-5 record in one-possession games is the worst in the league. They still have a decent shot at making the playoffs, but their hope of taking home the AFC West crown is diminishing by the week. If they fail on both fronts, the Bills only have themselves, and their weakness in key situations, to blame.
Bucs
Overall record: 10-3
Record in one-score games: 5-0
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: >99%
Bills
Overall record: 7-6
Record in one-score games: 0-5
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 67%
The 49ers blew it and then beat the Bengals in OT
When the 49ers are in a groove, they’re one of the hardest teams to beat in the NFL. You could say the same thing about the Bengals. The problem is you never know which version of each team is going to show up.
For the first half, the sloppy version of the Bengals were on display. They made too many mistakes at inopportune times, and while the 49ers weren’t playing their sharpest football, they were playing good enough — especially the Jimmy Garoppolo-George Kittle connection — to go up 20-6 early in the second half.
Then the Cincinnati offense picked things up, and Joe Burrow’s own connection, with rookie Ja’Marr Chase, pulled the Bengals even with the Niners with over a minute remaining. Garoppolo continued his strong performance on the final possession of regulation, but Robbie Gould missed what would’ve been the game-winning field goal.
After the Bengals took the lead on a field goal in OT, the 49ers had one more chance to potentially win the game. Another impressive drive from Garoppolo/Kittle culminated in Brandon Aiyuk’s walkoff touchdown:
The 49ers needed that win, not just because they blew a double-digit lead, but also to keep themselves in the playoff picture. That could’ve been the kind of loss that can derail a season. Instead, the 49ers were able to get right back off the mat and fight their way to a crucial win that greatly improved their odds of returning to the postseason.
On the other hand, the Bengals’ playoff dreams took a serious hit. If they had pulled out the win, they would’ve found themselves atop the AFC North. But in the end, they suffered their fourth loss of the season by three points. Although the Bengals aren’t out of the divisional race by any means, if they don’t start playing more consistently immediately, then they will be soon.
49ers
Overall record: 7-6
Record in one-score games: 4-4
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 76%
Bengals
Overall record: 7-6
Record in one-score games: 2-4
Chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 29%
— SH
Christian’s Shit List
All the things I hated in Week 14
1. Urban Meyer. All of him
Meyer is allergic to accountability. He has taken every effort to blame the Jaguars’ 2-11 season on everyone but himself. Before Sunday it manifested in calling his assistants — guys *he* hired — losers. After getting shut out by the short-handed Titans, the culprit was … all of us who think he’s shit?
Meyer’s vendetta against James Robinson, a 2020 rookie sensation he promptly buried on the depth chart by drafting Travis Etienne in the first round back in April, continued unabated. After benching him last week, then telling the world he didn’t bench him but another coach did (despite his absolute control over the roster), Meyer lashed out at his entire tailback rotation by calling up exactly six handoffs in a game that was only 10-0 at halftime.
The Titans took note of this. Meyer’s quest to keep Robinson buried at 0.7 yards per carry in the world’s lamest “I told you so” left no threat of running gains. That meant Tennessee could flood the secondary with defensive backs … and it did, en route to four Trevor Lawrence interceptions. All four came with at least eight yards to go for a first down. Three of the four came when the Titans only rushed four men and dropped seven into coverage.
Meyer has gone beyond wins and losses and is now chipping away at the young foundation of the team he was supposed to build up. He’s proven he’s capable and willing to do more harm than good in order to fit whatever bizarre agenda he brought with him to the NFL. He is a viable successor to Tom Coughlin in all the worst ways. He is a perfect fit for the Jaguars, and that sucks for Jaguar fans.
2. Zac Taylor, who saw the 49ers’ deficient secondary and decided to establish the run instead
San Francisco’s secondary is so beat up it’s started the zombified remains of Josh Norman all season. A team with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd should have had its eyes set on a shootout. Instead, the Bengals called more run plays than passes over the first three quarters. It went roughly the way most people, but not head coach Zac Taylor, would have expected:
Cincinnati’s passing game was three times more effective than its run game, yet Taylor didn’t take the governor off his high impact quarterback until he trailed 20-6 in the fourth quarter. When the Bengals finally went pass-first, they scored both of their touchdowns and found points on three of their final four drives. That wasn’t enough to overcome that slow start, however; the 49ers still escaped with a 26-23 overtime win.
The Bengals spent three quarters ramming the ball into a brick wall and gained 2.6 yards per carry from their tailbacks before deciding, hey, maybe we’ll play to our strengths instead. That loss cost Cincy a chance to reclaim its spot atop the AFC North, leaving the division up for grabs en route to what feels destined to be a Wild Card Round loss for the winner.
3. The Raiders’ pregame confidence
Las Vegas debuted a play called Hubris! at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday. It unfolds in three acts:
I. Before the game
II. The first play of the game
III. Pain
The Raiders lost 48-9 in a game they trailed for 59:43, then got trolled with a preschool song. Just a flawless afternoon for Las Vegas. At least Hunter Renfrow was pretty good.
4. The Bears’ offensive line play
Chicago had so little confidence in rookie tackle Teven Jenkins that it was playing a soon-to-be 40-year-old Jason Peters over him. Peters is a shell of himself, but when he left Sunday night’s game in Green Bay in the first half due to injury, his absence was immediately felt:
Justin Fields’ solid outing crumbled around him as his protection did. While he often found a way to escape pressure, he wasn’t able to keep his early pace as a 24-14 lead devolved into a familiar 30-45 stomping. Jenkins would earn another holding penalty that left Chicago pinned deep in its own territory, leading to another futile drive. The Bears scored zero points between the end of halftime and the final two-minute warning, which coincidentally happened to be right around when Green Bay stopped caring and started looking forward to next week’s game against Baltimore. — CD
Week 14 results, in five words or fewer
Browns 24, Ravens 22
Titans 20, Jaguars 0
Chiefs 48, Raiders 9
Saints 30, Jets 9
Cowboys 27, Washington 20
Technically McCarthy was right
Falcons 29, Panthers 21
Seahawks 33, Texans 13
Broncos 38, Lions 10
Chargers 37, Giants 21
Complete game from the Chargers
49ers 26, Bengals 23 (OT)
Bucs 33, Bills 27 (OT)
Packers 45, Bears 30