NFL picks for Week 14's divisional rivalries
Revenge, and perhaps a couple playoff bids, are on the menu this Sunday.
The action on the field this weekend has a lot to live up to, based on our first glimpse of Week 14. Just days after Tom Brady led two touchdown drives in three minutes for a 17-16 win, Baker Mayfield did the same with the Rams, except in even more improbable fashion since, y’know, he had been with LA for about 48 hours.
It was a mighty impressive, feel-good performance from Mayfield, and the latest gutting loss for the Raiders:
It also likely killed any hope that the Raiders, who were on the verge of a four-game winning streak, would make the postseason. Their playoff chances dropped from 16 percent to just 5 percent, per FiveThirtyEight, after that disastrous final drive.
Three other teams can punch their postseason ticket this Sunday: the Chiefs, Eagles, and Vikings. If Vegas is correct, then the first two will do just that. Here’s a look at the latest odds as of Friday afternoon, via DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Eagles at Giants (+7.5)
Jets at Bills (-10)
Browns at Bengals (-5.5)
Vikings at Lions (-2)
Texans at Cowboys (-17)
Ravens at Steelers (-2)
Jaguars at Titans (-3.5)
Chiefs at Broncos (+9)
Panthers at Seahawks (-3.5)
Buccaneers at 49ers (-3.5)
Dolphins at Chargers (+3.5)
Patriots at Cardinals (+2)
Six teams are off this week, the final time we’ll have any byes until the first round of the playoffs. That created a weird mix of random matchups (Patriots-Cardinals) and divisional rivalries to fill out the Week 14 slate. Below, I’m going to only focus on the latter, but as always, you can head over to FTW to see Christian’s picks for every game.
The rematches
Three of this week’s divisional games have already been played once this season. Who can even up the season series, and who will come out 2-0 (or 0-2)?
Never doubt them in revenge games: Bills over Jets
It’s been just over a month since the Jets upset the Bills with a three-point win. In that time, both Buffalo’s defense and New York’s offense have undergone some changes.
Von Miller is now out for the season with an ACL tear, but the Bills have welcomed Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano back from injury. The Jets benched an ineffective Zach Wilson for Mike White and have since enjoyed their two most productive offensive games, in terms of total yardage, all season. Unfortunately for them, they only went 1-1 in that span, thanks to an awful 1-of-6 performance in the red zone last week against the Vikings.
The Bills know firsthand that the Jets can’t be taken lightly, which is why they won’t overlook their AFC East foes this week. In the past two seasons, whenever the Bills have a chance to pay back a team that had beaten them in their previous matchup, they’ve gotten their revenge — usually without showing any mercy:
Week 16 (2021): 33-21 win vs. Patriots (lost 14-10 in Week 13)
Week 2 (2022): 41-7 win vs. Titans (lost 34-31 in Week 6 of 2021)
Week 5 (2022): 38-3 win vs. Steelers (lost 23-16 in Week 1 of 2021)
Week 6 (2022): 24-20 win vs. Chiefs (lost 42-36 in Divisional Round)
I’m not sure I expect a cover, since the Jets have done a better job than any other defense of slowing down the Buffalo offense. But I still expect the Bills to be out for, and receive, retribution.
Wait, who’s favored now: Vikings over Lions
I was all ready to pick the red-hot Lions, whose only loss in the past five weeks came against the current No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Bills (they won on a last-minute field goal). Detroit is also fresh off a 40-14 rout over Jacksonville, the Lions’ biggest margin of victory in four years.
Meanwhile, the Vikings keep coming out on top in close matchups, including their 28-24 win against the Lions in Week 3, when Detroit allowed two late touchdowns to give the game away. This pattern — nine of Minnesota’s 10 wins have been decided by one score — doesn’t feel particularly sustainable.
AND one of the Vikings players guaranteed a win in Detroit on Sunday? OK, this has upset written all over it—wait a minute. The Lions are favored?
Yeah, this can’t end well.
This is overdue: Bengals over Browns
Joe Burrow has been to the Super Bowl, is playing like an MVP candidate, and as of last week, is the only quarterback to be 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes. But you know what he hasn’t done in his NFL career? Beaten the Browns.
I’m not exactly sure how, but I suppose this is as good of a reason as any:
Here’s another factor: Burrow has only had his favorite receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, for one of those matchups (Week 9 of 2021). Chase was out with a hamstring injury in the in-state rivals’ first meeting this season, a 32-13 butt-kicking on Halloween night. That also happens to be the last time the Bengals have lost a game.
Chase is back and wasn’t even a little bit rusty in his return last week against the Chiefs. The same can’t be said for Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was still serving his suspension when these two teams last played. I don’t think Watson, after not appearing in a regular season game in 700 days, will suddenly regain his old form so quickly:
The Browns were able to topple the Texans last week because their defense and special teams combined to score three touchdowns. They need more help from their offense this week against a real opponent — but I don’t think Watson is ready yet. Burrow, however, will be ready to end this winless streak against Cleveland.
The first of two matchups
The teams below will all face their divisional rival twice over the final five weeks of the season. Game No. 1 is up this week.
We just fired someone: Titans over Jaguars
In some cases, when a team fires a prominent figure during the season, it earns a win the next time it takes the field (see: the Colts beating the Raiders right after Frank Reich was ousted). The Titans didn’t dump their coach — in fact, Mike Vrabel seems to have won a power struggle — but they did part ways with general manager Jon Robinson.
Whether a “firing the GM” bump exists, the Titans should rebound from their two-game losing streak in Tennessee on Sunday. They’ve beaten the Jaguars five times in a row in and eight times in a row at home. Plus, Trevor Lawrence is banged up and the Jags are coming off their most lopsided loss of the season.
Expect Tennessee to continue its dominance over Jacksonville and inch another step closer to the AFC South title we all know the Titans are going to eventually win.
History is repeating itself: Steelers over Ravens
Last year, the Ravens were sitting atop the AFC North at 8-3, then lost their last six games to miss the playoffs. Not only did they fall to the Steelers twice, but they were without Lamar Jackson for most of that stretch. The Bengals ended up taking the division, while the Steelers sneaked into the postseason.
Well, the Ravens once again find themselves atop the AFC North, this time at 8-4. And Jackson is injured, the Bengals are breathing down their necks, and they have to face off against the Steelers twice in the last month of the season.
I don’t view this year as an exact replica of last year, though. I don’t think Jackson will miss as much time, and Baltimore is still a good bet to make the playoffs. But the similarities are eerie enough that I could see Pittsburgh, after three wins in its last four games, continuing to stay hot with another victory over the Ravens.
Besides, the Steelers are 5-7 right now; they need a few more wins to get to .500 on the season, and I know better than to doubt Mike Tomlin can do just that.
Playoff spot incoming (for one of them): Eagles over Giants
I might be tempted to take the Giants, who are nearing desperation mode with only one win in their last five contests. Giants coach Brian Daboll has experience working with both Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. The Eagles are due for, probably, two more losses his year.
Based on what we saw against the Commanders, the way to beat the Eagles is to hope they keep shooting themselves in the foot — and have a little luck on your side. The Giants can’t count on either factor, particularly with Saquon Barkley now dealing with a neck injury, so I’m picking the Eagles to both win and clinch a playoff bid.
But maybe the Giants can return the favor in Week 18, when the Eagles will likely be resting most of their starters to prepare for the postseason.
The streak continues: Chiefs over Broncos
Losing a three-point game to the Bengals, for the third time in the past 12 months, must’ve been a bitter pill to swallow for the Chiefs. Luckily for them, the best way to get past the stinging taste of defeat is to square off against the Broncos. Kansas City is riding a 13-game winning streak against Denver; Patrick Mahomes’ record against the Broncos is 9-0.
Denver’s defense can at least make things a bit difficult for Mahomes, but to keep pace with the Chiefs, the Broncos have to be able to score. Considering their track record this year — they didn’t put up more than 16 points in eight of their nine losses — and the rookie receivers that’ll be in the lineup, that seems nearly impossible.