NFL Week 12: Honor Society
Award season is fast approaching. Who's the favorite for each major award?
For the first time in a month and a half, every NFL team was on the schedule this week. The byes will return in the next two weeks, but at least we got to celebrate Thanksgiving weekend with the entire league in action.
I could recap some of the wilder endings we saw: two OT games, two last-second two-point conversions for the win, whatever the Falcons did against the Commanders. Instead, with all 32 teams playing, I’d like to take this opportunity to discuss the NFL player awards. With just over a month left in the season, who’s leading each race and how did their Week 12 performance help or hurt their case?
Two quick notes first. 1) I used The Athletic’s odds for each award as a reference and 2) I’m writing this before two teams have kicked off this week. Those two teams are the Steelers and Colts and are therefore irrelevant to any awards this season.
Now let’s begin.
MVP frontrunner: Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs didn’t get a superhuman effort from Patrick Mahomes this week, but they didn’t need one to beat the Rams. LA, which extended its losing streak to five games, gave third-stringer Bryce Perkins his first start at quarterback and was dealing with a slew of injuries, which almost included their coach:
Still, what does a non-superhuman performance look like from Mahomes? Let’s see: 27 of 42 for 320 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and four carries for 36 yards. Ho hum, just his sixth straight 300-yard passing game and the 38th of his career.
Overall, Kansas City’s offense wasn’t sharp — it went 1 of 6 in the red zone, including a pick from Mahomes that he’s still beating himself up about:
But again, the Chiefs did enough to win by double digits and improve their record to an AFC-best 9-2. And the biggest reason for their success is Mahomes, who remains the league leader in passing yards, touchdown passes, 20+ yard passes, and EPA, while also ranking in the top four in QBR and passer rating.
Other candidates: Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa
If Mahomes falters at any point in December — which would be uncharacteristic of him — then Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are waiting in the wings. Both played well again on Sunday and continue to impress in their breakout season.
Tagovailoa was out of the game by the end of the third quarter because the Dolphins were thumping the Texans. In less than three quarters, he threw for 299 yards and a touchdown. Currently, he sits at No. 1 in yards per pass, QBR, and passer rating.
Later that night, Hurts led the Eagles to their NFL-high 10th win of the season. He threw two touchdown passes, but his legs were what really did the damage against the Green Bay defense. Hurts rushed for a Justin Fields-esque 157 yards on 13 attempts, carrying (see what I did there?) the Eagles in a 40-33 victory over the Packers.
Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner: Justin Jefferson
On Thursday, Justin Jefferson ruined Thanksgiving night for Patriots fans across the country. Against the NFL’s most efficient passing defense, Jefferson hauled in nine catches for 139 yards and a touchdown, and helped set up the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. He also made a little history:
Jefferson leads all receivers with 439 yards after catch and 20+ yard receptions, and is No. 2 (by a single yard) in total receiving yards. Advanced stats don’t particularly like Minnesota’s offense, so the fact that he’s putting up those kinds of numbers, with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, is testament to Jefferson’s playmaking abilities.
Other candidates: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Two former teammates are right behind Jefferson in the OPOTY race. Tyreek Hill didn’t miss a beat going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa; he’s No. 1 in the NFL in receiving yards, and is tied with Jefferson for the most 20+ yards receptions. Hill is also tied atop the league in receiving first downs with Travis Kelce, who has taken over for Hill as Mahomes’ favorite target.
This week, Hill led the Dolphins with six catches for 85 yards and, like his quarterback, was taken out of the game by the time the fourth quarter came around. Kelce didn’t have a monster performance like last week, but he was on the end of Mahomes’ lone touchdown pass — and as per usual, Kelce fought for the extra yardage to make it into the end zone. That was Kelce’s NFL-high 12th TD catch of the season, which is a career best for the tight end … with six more games left to go.
Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner: Micah Parsons
The Cowboys, like mashed potatoes and green bean casserole, are a Thanksgiving staple, but they had yet to win a Turkey Day game with Mike McCarthy as head coach. That streak looked like it could extend another year when the Cowboys trailed the Giants at halftime. The Dallas offense was struggling, but the defense was doing its part. Luckily for the home team, the offense synched up in the second half and the Cowboys rallied for the win.
The defense was just as good, maybe even better, in the second half too. It turned the Giants over on downs twice and also sacked Daniel Jones two times, both of which were courtesy of Micah Parsons, who has 12 sacks on the season (and they always come in twos):
That’s just one off from his total last year, when he was named the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Parsons has been even more disruptive this season — he has three forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and a TD — and boasts the highest pass-rush win rate in the league. He is the engine of a defense that ranks first in sacks and QB pressures.
Other candidates: Nick Bosa, Matthew Judon
While Parsons has more sacks than Nick Bosa (12 vs. 11.5), the latter has been more consistent. Bosa has recorded at least one sack in each full game he has played in this year. The only time he didn’t get to the quarterback was when he left early against Carolina due to a groin injury. He missed the following game, but since his return, Bosa picked up right where he left off: terrorizing quarterbacks. On Sunday, he sacked Andy Dalton late in the fourth quarter to preserve the 49ers’ shutout win.
Matthew Judon is the NFL’s leader in sacks with 13, and if the Patriots have any shot of making the playoffs, it’ll be because their defense got them there. This week, they only managed to sack Kirk Cousins once (it wasn’t Judon), even though the Vikings surrendered seven sacks against the Cowboys less than a week prior. Still, Judon wasn’t a nonfactor; he registered two QB hits and was in on a few tackles against Dalvin Cook, who didn’t gain much yardage.
Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner: Kenneth Walker III
This spring, the Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker with the hopes that he’d be their next Marshawn Lynch. In the offseason, Walker underwent hernia surgery, which delayed his rookie debut. Though he was able to play in Week 2, Walker appeared to be on a pitch count in his first few games. In his fourth appearance, however, Walker earned 58 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and has only seen that number increase since.
That time, Walker rushed for a career-high 88 yards on eight carries and scored his first NFL touchdown. In the two weeks after that, he ran for even more yards, including his new career-best of 167 yards against the Chargers.
After his worst outing of the season against the Bucs (10 carries for 17 yards), Walker only managed 1.9 yards per carry against the Raiders this week. However, he scored two touchdowns — and channeled Beast Mode for one of them:
Walker is now tied for fourth in the NFL with nine touchdown runs, and has a lot fewer carries than everyone ahead of him on that list.
Other candidates: Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson
As rookies, a pair of college teammates are leading their respective NFL team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving first downs, all while dealing with less-than-ideal quarterback situations.
Chris Olave has been the most reliable target for Andy Dalton/Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill this season, and he’s arguably been the steadiest offensive rookie in the league. Even though the Saints were held out of the end zone on Sunday, Olave managed a team-high 62 yards on five catches — and maybe should have had more.
Garrett Wilson, somehow, has shined with Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White throwing him the ball. However, he hadn’t scored a touchdown since he had two against the Browns in Week 2 (let’s blame that on Zach Wilson, who has passed for only four TDs in 2022). That changed this week when the Jets benched Z. Wilson and put White in the starting lineup. G. Wilson found the end zone twice, while snagging a team-best five catches for 95 yards in the Jets’ win over the Bears. If White doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin, then Wilson could make a real run at OROTY honors.
Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner: Sauce Gardner
Like fellow top-10 pick Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner has been an instant star for the Jets. Unlike Wilson, however, Gardner plays on the side of the ball that hasn’t been described by their head coach, at one point, as dog poop.
Gardner’s play has been a big reason the New York defense is highly ranked. He leads the league in passes defended with 14, and has three TFLs and two INTs. Entering the week, he was PFF’s highest-graded cornerback, a ranking which may or may not stand after Sunday:
Either way, Gardner has allowed just one touchdown and when targeted, gives up a passer rating that makes the opposing quarterback look much worse than Zach Wilson.
Other candidates: Tariq Woolen, Aidan Hutchinson
While Gardner is more of a lockdown corner, Tariq Woolen is a ballhawk. The Seahawks’ fifth-round pick is second in the NFL with five interceptions and also has two fumble recoveries. He didn’t add any on Sunday, but maybe that’s because the Raiders made sure to line up Davante Adams on the other side of the field as Woolen.
Close behind Woolen, and tied with Gardner with two interceptions, is … uh, edge defender Aidan Hutchinson? OK! But yes, the No. 2 overall pick has come down with two picks this season. He also leads all rookies with 5.5 sacks on the year. The problem with Hutchinson is that he’s been inconsistent — three of those sacks came in Week 2 against Carson Wentz. And last week, Hutchinson was the NFC Defensive Player of the Week and then didn’t log a single stat in the box score against the Bills this week. The talent is there, though, if he can put it all together.
Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith
Geno Smith is one of the feel-good stories of the season. For the first time since 2014, the 32-year-old is a full-time starter in the NFL. He’s also putting up better numbers than he did with the Jets. Right now, Smith is first among starting quarterbacks in completion percentage (72.8), second in passer rating (107.9), fifth in QBR (64.2), and fifth in EPA (63.9).
Smith did not have his cleanest game this weekend in Vegas. He threw an interception in the first half that led to a Raiders touchdown and then fumbled during a promising drive in the second half, among other missed opportunities. Nevertheless, Smith put up his usual efficient numbers — 27 of 37 for 328 yards and two TDs, along with five rushes for 22 yards — and was hardly the main culprit behind Seattle’s OT loss (the defense had no answer for Josh Jacobs). Besides, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, and Smith can bounce back next week against the reeling Rams.
Other candidates: Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson
The Giants were one of the surprise successes during the first half of the season, and Saquon Barkley’s return to form was a huge part of that hot start. Through the first five weeks, he rushed for 533 yards on 5.5 y/c and had 18 catches for 143 yards. Since then, he has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, even with two 100+ yard games during that span (against the terrible rush defenses of the Jaguars and Texans). This week, the Cowboys mostly kept him in check: 11 carries for 39 yards and a touchdown, plus four catches for 13 yards. Whether the workload is catching up to Barkley or he’s not 100 percent, the Giants will need the more productive version of Barkley again to make it to the playoffs.
As far as I can tell, Brian Robinson isn’t eligible to win Comeback Player of the Year because, well, he’s a rookie who never played in the NFL until this year. So why is he listed with the third-best odds to take this award home? I don’t know! Maybe the AP will make an exception or he can be honored with an ESPY Comeback Award or something.
Regardless, I’m not going to turn down the chance to write about Robinson this week. Three months after being shot in the leg, Robinson put up the first 100-yard rushing game of his career. He totaled 18 carries for 105 yards and bowled over a defender for a receiving touchdown, earning the game ball in the process.
Most noteworthy of all, though, is this photo:
THAT’S THE BIGGEST HAT I HAVE EVER SEEN AND I’M BOTH CONFUSED AND I LOVE IT.
If Robinson truly can’t be named CPOTY, maybe he can win the Big Hat award that doesn’t exist but should.