Which rookie’s preseason hype train will chug into 2021?
And who’s will derail once the regular season starts?
The preseason is the low-calorie version of actual football. Elements of successful gameplans are stripped out as coaches pare down their playbooks to see which players can adhere to a basic version of their gridiron vision. Situations that would typically call for starters are replaced by the Great Value version thereof, creating an unfamiliar taste in the middle of a cherished recipe.
But sometimes these substitutions shine. A young quarterback can step into the role his franchise prays he can handle. A linebacker, finally healthy, finds the perfect combination of fit and skillset. A punter, uh, punts really well.
Today we’re looking at five new additions to the league, and whether their impressive debuts will find a way to last when the whole-hog version of football finally comes back to us September 9. These are five players who’ve stood out to us -- not necessarily the top rookies, but the most interesting contributors through three weeks of preseason matchups. And here’s whether or not they can keep that momentum rolling once they have to face first-teamers and playoff stakes.
Trevor Lawrence will be 2021’s top rookie quarterback
To hear analysts over the past four years tell it, Lawrence wasn’t born, he was created in the lab of some football-loving mad scientist. As the most polished (and hyped) quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, expectations for him are massive, even as he takes over one of the least successful franchises the NFL has.
Lawrence lived up to those sky-high hopes in his final preseason game Sunday. The former All-American roasted Dallas en route to 139 yards, two touchdowns, and a 154.5 passer rating.
It was a strong departure from his first two appearances, where the Saints and Browns sacked him three times in 36 dropbacks and held him to 5.8 yards per pass attempt. It took a couple weeks, but he finally looked like the kind of player who can lead Jacksonville for the next decade-plus.
Can he keep it up? Lawrence’s blast through the preseason learning curve wasn’t just a display of his raw talent, but a solid example of coach Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell can make his life easier. The rookie’s first two preseason performances saw him hammered by aggressive pass rushes with very few viable quick routes to target. The Dallas game stopped that trend by giving him tools to deal with pressure -- namely, keeping some of those long routes intact, but using the space created in the middle of the field to create easy gains.
This, along with an increased use of pre-snap motion to give Lawrence a better idea of what the Cowboys’ defense would throw at him, was a valuable counter-punch that ultimately re-opened the Jags’ playbook for the young quarterback to thrive.
Lawrence finally looked like himself in the exhibition finale. That’s great news for the Jaguars -- and a sign that maybe this coaching staff can fare better than the first eight months of the Urban Meyer era had previously suggested. — CD
Terrace Marshall Jr. is the best of the rookie WRs
The Panthers’ second-round pick didn’t just lead the team in receiving this preseason. He led all rookie wideouts with 181 receiving yards (No. 2 overall among NFL WRs) and 20.1 yards per catch (also No. 2 overall among NFL WRs). His lone touchdown came on a screen pass from starting quarterback Sam Darnold, with Marshall flashing his untackleability (if this isn’t a real word, it is now) as he weaved through Steelers defenders to find the end zone:
His three-game preseason performance earned him PFF’s top marks for this rookie receiving class, despite Marshall being the 10th WR off the board this April. While others drafted higher than him have stumbled for various reasons — Ja’Marr Chase with drops, DeVonta Smith and Rashod Batemen with injuries, Kadarius Toney with pretty much every type of setback you can think of — Marshall hasn’t shown any signs of struggling to make the transition to the NFL. He could end up being the most recent second-round “steal” at this position (Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown, etc).
Can he keep it up? Marshall was the Panthers’ leading receiver in the first two preseason games when DJ Moore didn’t play. Moore suited up against the Steelers, as did Robby Anderson, and as such, Marshall didn’t get as much action, though his line was still respectable (three catches for 43 yards and a touchdown). Once the regular season begins, Christian McCaffrey will also be thrown into the mix, which will take more touches away from Marshall.
Still, Marshall’s relationship with OC Joe Brady should help the rookie get chances to shine. When Brady was in charge of the WRs during LSU’s 2019 national championship run, Marshall accounted for 13 touchdowns, even while sharing the field with Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Marshall may not end up as the top rookie receiver this season (his quarterback will still be Darnold, after all), he can make his presence felt on the field each Sunday. — SH
Zach Wilson will be 2021’s top rookie quarterback
Wilson was the final first-round pick to sign a contract this summer and suffered through a brief lag when he made his first appearances at Jets’ training camp this summer. He blasted through the field rust, however, to look like the player who lit the FBS on fire at BYU last season. In two preseason games — head coach Robert Saleh had seen enough heading into last weekend’s 31-all tie against the Eagles — Wilson completed 15 of 20 passes for 191 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Just as importantly, Wilson showed off the strong-armed accuracy that defined his rise from a useful starter in Provo to one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Against the Packers, he made big throws from a clean pocket, but also under pressure, off his back foot, and on the run:
As a result, the Jets have something approaching hope for the 2021 season. Wilson was a revelation his final year in college, averaging 11 yards per pass and notching 33 touchdown passes to go along with three interceptions. Even 75 percent of those numbers would be a massive upgrade for his new team’s passing offense.
Can he keep it up? Wilson will have a better shot at success than Sam Darnold had in the terminal stages of his Jets career since New York has installed:
A head coach who isn’t a wide-eyed lunatic, and
A group of wideouts more lively than the hollowed-out mannequins who took the field to end 2020
Instead of slinging passes to Braxton Berrios, Breshad Perriman, and Jeff Smith, the team’s new franchise QB gets Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, rookie Elijah Moore, and hopefully-healthy seasons from Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder. There might not be a Pro Bowler in that bunch, but it’s still a massive upgrade.
The running game and tight ends group is ...less optimistic. His top tight end may still be Chris Herndon (though Tyler Kroft made a lasting impression this preseason). Rookie running back Michael Carter appears to have been a fourth-rounder for good reason, and the Lamical Perine/Ty Johnson platoon around him is underwhelming. Wilson is gonna have to throw the hell out of the ball many weeks to give New York a chance to win.
Concerns linger. Wilson has torn through NFL backups in the preseason, but struggled at times vs. the starters from the league’s 28th-ranked passing defense in practice.
The adjustment from the preseason to actual games will be a leap. Wilson’s made leaps before -- see pretty much all of 2020 -- and has the personnel to give him a better shot of success than Darnold had before him. It would help if Alijah Vera-Tucker, who the Jets selected with their other first round pick, can overcome a training camp injury and slot next to Mekhi Becton to keep the left side of his line airtight. Otherwise, 2021 may be a year where we see flashes of greatness from the BYU star, but also a long list of frustrating plays. — CD
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is on the Defensive Rookie of the Year track
The Buccaneers added to their already-impressive pass rush when they drafted Tryon-Shoyinka with the final pick of the first round this year. The Washington product sat out last season but has shown no rust as he’s gotten after the quarterback in each of the Bucs’ three preseason games. Although his first sack against the Bengals didn’t count due to the refs botching things with an incorrect unnecessary roughness call, the linebacker recorded an official sack in the final two matchups, including this strip sack over the weekend:
Even on a loaded defense, the Bucs believe Tryon-Shoyinka can make a huge impact during the regular season due to his speed, athleticism, the variety of moves in his arsenal, and his ability to get pressure on the quarterback.
Can he keep it up? It almost seems unfair that the defending Super Bowl champs were able to add a player of Tryon-Shoyinka’s caliber to their roster. He can, like Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tristan Wirfs last year, come in right away and make this team better.
But while teammates Shaq Barrett, Devin White, and Jason Pierre-Paul are racking up sacks, Tryon-Shoyinka won’t start for the Bucs. He’ll contribute mostly on passing downs and on special teams. However, Tryon-Shoyinka will still get opportunities to put the quarterback on the ground because he’s too good not to. It’s just that his stats likely won’t be as eye-catching as some other rookie defenders, such as DPOTY favorites Micah Parsons and Kwity Paye, will be. That’ll make it harder for Tryon-Shoyinka to take home hardware at the end of the season. Well, individual hardware, that is. The Lombardi Trophy is certainly an attainable goal in Tampa this season. — SH
Rhamondre Stevenson is the next Rex Burkhead
You know, I wrote that sentence and I’m not even sure whether it's a compliment or an insult. Burkhead, for his latent forgettability, was the perfect Bill Belichick running back. An undervalued piece who arrived on the roster for a minimal investment, did his job without complaint, and occasionally delivered an absolutely devastating fantasy performance with no promise or implication he’d do it again.
Stevenson, a 2021 fourth-round pick, had only 164 FBS carries after starting his college career as a junior college standout. His emergence this preseason was enough to help convince Belichick to trade away former Day 1 pick Sony Michel. The burly back had 193 rushing yards in his first two NFL exhibitions. This 91-yard jaunt against Washington is one of his four touchdowns in roughly six quarters of play.
Stevenson will inherit a share of the carries vacated by Michel and Burkhead this fall. At a listed 227 pounds (but likely much heavier), he’ll take over ol’ Rex’s goal line carries and give whichever questionable quarterback — Cam Newton or Mac Jones — a little extra support on the ground.
Can he keep it up? Stevenson is a prototypical Patriots back, which means he’ll be subjected to the prototypical Patriots platoon. He’s tucked snugly behind Damien Harris as the team’s lead back and should’ve-been Super Bowl 51 MVP James White on passing downs. He’ll also have to beat out JJ Taylor (179 preseason yards on 23 carries) for snaps any given week.
This means we’ll likely see Stevenson finish some weeks with four, five, or six touches before a random midseason explosion where he runs for 155 yards and catches two touchdown passes. Then he’ll only be five minutes early for a running backs meeting instead of 10 and wind up inactive the following week. -- CD