The 12 NFL teams most, and least, likely to win their first Super Bowl this season
Did the Nuggets and Golden Knights start a sports-wide trend?
In the world of sports, June has been a month of firsts. Last week, the Denver Nuggets won their first NBA championship, while the Vegas Golden Knights took home their first Stanley Cup. Over the weekend, Wyndham Clark — a golfer, and not as you might assume by his name, an investment banking company — claimed his first major, at the US Open.
The NFL has not had any historic moments of its own because, as a reminder, it’s June. But what if the other pro leagues have started a trend that extended to the NFL once its season began? (I know that’s not how sports work, but just go with it.)
The Eagles were the last NFL team to win their first Super Bowl when they Philly Special-ed the Patriots five years ago. There are now 12 remaining franchises that have never hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, four of which have never even appeared in a Super Bowl.
A couple of those 12 have a decent chance of ending their championship drought this upcoming season. The rest? Probably not, either because of their perpetual bad luck or because they’re projected to lose a lot of games this year.
Still, I made sure to include all 12 in my rankings below of which teams are the most likely, and least likely, to take home their first Lombardi Trophy in the 2023 season.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Two years ago, the Bengals came up just short in the Super Bowl. Last year, they came up just short in returning to the Super Bowl. Although they lost a few vets during free agency, the main core that got them oh-so-close to their first championship is back in 2023, including Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Sam Hubbard, and Trey Hendrickson.
On top of that, the Bengals addressed their biggest holes in free agency and the draft. They brought in left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., a reliable (finally!) blindside protector for Burrow, and shored up the secondary with free agents Sidney Jones IV and Nick Scott, as well as picks DJ Turner II and safety Jordan Battle.
Cincinnati has already proven to be a thorn in the defending champs’ side and has all the pieces to win — plus, as Burrow noted, a greater sense of urgency to do just that.
2. Buffalo Bills
Over the past few years, the Bills have been a better regular season team than the Bengals, record-wise and DVOA-wise. However, it’s been a different story in the postseason, where Buffalo’s AFC title hopes have been dashed by Kansas City (twice) and Cincinnati (once).
The offense should still be one of the NFL’s best in 2023, particularly since Josh Allen’s elbow is expected to be healed by then. A healthy Von Miller and Tre’Davious White would also boost the highly rated defense as well.
The Bills have the kind of roster that can win it all, which is probably why they have the third-best Super Bowl odds (better than the Bengals). But I can’t rank them above Cincinnati, not with their recent playoff history and not with the strange vibes Buffalo has given off recently.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are younger and not as stacked as some of the other teams on this list, but they are the only ones with Doug Pederson, who has won a Super Bowl as a head coach. They are also in a pretty favorable position. Jacksonville has the inside track to win the AFC South for the second year in a row — the Colts and Texans are ushering in new eras with rookie quarterbacks and head coaches, while the Titans are in a liminal space of sorts between the past and future.
The Jags are already perhaps a year ahead of schedule after they got hot at just the right time last year to take the division crown and stage a furious comeback against the Chargers in the playoffs. If they — quarterback Trevor Lawrence most of all — can stay on that same upward trajectory, then this is an opponent no one should take lightly in the postseason. All they need to do is get into a groove, and then who knows how far they can go.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard to put too much faith in the Chargers when the last time we saw them, they were blowing a historic lead in the playoffs … which, to be honest, is very on brand for them. That said, they have one of the top roster cores in the NFL, headlined by 25-year-old quarterback Justin Herbert. With a new offensive coordinator and better and healthier weapons, Herbert could be on the verge of his best season yet.
Herbert has already shown he can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes. Though he has a 2-4 record against the Chiefs, Herbert boasts a 107.3 passer rating in those matchups and has thrown more touchdowns (15) against Kansas City than he has against any other opponent. Also, the Chargers’ four losses to the Chiefs have all come by just a single score. If they had beaten the Jags like they should have in January, then perhaps Herbert and Co. could’ve given the Chiefs a scare — or more — in the Divisional Round.
Alas, we’ll never know. But there’s always the new season. The Chargers can get right back to the postseason, and make some noise this time, if they can keep the injuries at bay and stop shooting themselves in the foot so much. Hey, there’s a first time for everything.
5. Cleveland Browns
From a talent standpoint, the Browns should be a contender. They have a formidable OL, one of the NFL’s best pass rushers (Myles Garrett), a solid No. 1 receiver and tight end (Amari Cooper, David Njoku), a perennial Pro Bowl running back (Nick Chubb), and a quarterback who has been one of the most dynamic players in the league (prior to Deshaun Watson’s sexual misconduct allegations anyway).
Cleveland’s biggest moves of the offseason were all geared toward making a run in 2023 — i.e., trading for a proven edge defender (Za’Darius Smith) and an unproven but promising young WR (Elijah Moore), as well as hiring Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. If everything goes right for the Browns, and more specifically if Watson can regain his form, then this could be the most successful season the franchise has had in decades.
But that would require, y’know, things going right for the Browns.
6. Detroit Lions
The Lions are in a similar boat than the Browns: a cursed franchise that, for once, enters the season filled with hope (what could go wrong?). But the Browns have the edge in talent and experience at the key positions, and haven’t been dealing with a mini-gambling scandal this offseason, which is why I ranked them a spot above.
Jared Goff has started in a Super Bowl, however, unlike every other quarterback on this list except Burrow. Goff is a competent, sometimes very good quarterback, who helped lead Detroit to a red-hot second half of last season — in the final nine games, Lions went 7-2 and Goff threw zero interceptions in that span.
Goff and the Lions can carry that momentum into 2023, when the NFC North will be wide open. Expectations are high, though, which never quite works out well for Detroit.
7. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings went 13-4 last season, albeit with a -3 point differential and as the No. 27-ranked team in total DVOA. A regression this year was practically inevitable, even before they were ousted in the first round of the playoffs and then started parting ways with a number of vets.
Right now, the Vikings lack an identity. Are they rebuilding or contending? Well, kinda both. This offseason, Minnesota bolstered the wide receiver position (rookie Jordan Addison joins Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson), upgraded at defensive coordinator position with the hiring of Brian Flores, downgraded at pass rusher (lost Smith and Danielle Hunter could be next), and took a risk by keeping Kirk Cousins. While GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s “competitive rebuild” worked to an extent last year, the results — and his plan — in year two could be different.
Then again, the Vikings surprised us last season. Even if they don’t win 13 games in 2023, which they likely won’t, they’re still capable of earning the division title again.
8. Tennessee Titans
Like the Vikings, the Titans are in the midst of an identity crisis but also play in a winnable division. Despite the earlier trade rumors, it looks like they’re sticking with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry to lead the way on offense.
In theory, there’s nothing wrong with that. Henry can still play at a high level, while Tannehill can still play at a decent level. However, both are getting up there in age, have dealt with a major injury within the past two years, and have been less productive as a result. The rest of the offense lacks depth, too, and the defense is fine, if low in star power — outside of Jeffery Simmons, anyway.
Speaking of Simmons, the defensive tackle has said the Titans are “building a winning culture,” which is a reflection of coach Mike Vrabel. The locker room has the right mindset, and has played spoiler before in the postseason. But without much playmaking ability, it’s tough to picture them hanging with the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills.
9. Atlanta Falcons
The good news for the Falcons: Someone has to win the NFC South, and they finished just one game back in the division last season. Now for the bad news: The Falcons haven’t won more than seven games in a season since 2017.
Atlanta has the foundation to break both those streaks, at least. The offense is brimming with young dynamic weapons at running back (Bijan Robinson), receiver (Drake London), and tight end (Kyle Pitts). The defense, which hasn’t been good since that 2017 season, brought in reinforcements this offseason, such as safety Jessie Bates III and defensive linemen David Onyemata and Calais Campbell.
Did they make enough improvements to compete for a division title? Yes. What about a Super Bowl? Uh, almost certainly not, especially when quarterback Desmond Ridder, in his first full season as the starter, is a big question mark.
10. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are, like the Falcons, an NFC South contender, kinda by default. The new staff, led by head coach Frank Reich, is loaded with experience — specifically, a combined 206 years’ worth of coaching and 75 years’ worth of playing in the NFL. They also added quite a few veterans in free agency, including running back Miles Sanders, receivers Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, tight end Hayden Hurst, and safety Vonn Bell.
That should balance out the greenness of their starting quarterback. First overall pick Bryce Young has already been named QB1 this summer, and he has the skills to help the Panthers get back atop the division for the first time since their Super Bowl runner-up year in 2015. Getting back to the Super Bowl is a much larger hurdle, however. In fact, no rookie quarterback has ever done it.
11. Houston Texans
Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, the Texans haven’t officially named sharpshooter C.J. Stroud as their starter, but it’s (unsurprisingly) trending that way. Although the No. 2 pick doesn’t have a clear-cut No. 1 receiver, or a particularly inspiring supporting cast, his sturdy offensive line should give both Stroud and his receiving corps room to develop chemistry.
First-time head coach DeMeco Ryans is inheriting a team that has won just 11 games total in the past three years — aka, as many as Houston won in the 2019 season alone, playoffs included. The projections for 2023 don’t look much different, either; the Texans have one of the lowest win totals (5.5) in the NFL.
With their manageable schedule, I think the Texans can beat those expectations, but their rebuild, which basically started over this offseason, will be longer than a one-year process. Unless Stroud plays every NFL game like he did against Georgia in the Peach Bowl, Houston’s Super Bowl dreams will have to wait.
12. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are doing the NFL’s version of tanking: the players and coaches will try to secure a victory every time they take the field, but the front office has turned its attention to the future.
It’s possible that, if Kyler Murray returns from his ACL earlier than expected and performs like his pre-2022 self, Arizona won’t be the worst team in the NFL this upcoming season. Even if that’s true, this is arguably the weakest roster in the entire league. The Cardinals are simply not built to win a Super Bowl this year — a fate they, and the other 11 teams above them, know all too well.