5 NFL teams that will get the biggest boost from their rookie class

First-year players will be major contributors for both contenders and not-contenders in 2023.

I have a confession to make: I’ve had a terrible case of writer’s block lately. Maybe that’s because, with training camp still weeks away, not much is happening in the NFL. Or maybe it’s this unrelenting heat that I’ve been dealing with, along with most of the rest of the country. But every time I sat down to write, nothing would come and I would soon find myself reading the Wikipedia synopsis for Party of Five, a show I have never watched.

So I asked myself what I would write about if this newsletter was about anything other than football. And it didn’t take me long to find a current source of inspiration: my favorite baseball team, the Cincinnati Reds. 

For most of my life, it has not been easy being a Reds fan, but in the last few weeks, they’ve been fun to watch in a way that feels both foreign and familiar (like, this is how the Reds should always play, even if they almost never did). They have more comeback wins than any other team in MLB, and each night, someone different plays the hero, whether it’s the veteran Joey Votto, the “captain of America’s team” Jonathan India, lights-out closer Alexis Díaz, or 21-year-old phenom Elly De La Cruz. 

De La Cruz has garnered the most attention since he was called up earlier this month, but the Reds’ rookie class as a whole has given them a shot in the arm. I’m not sure they can keep this up all season, particularly when most of their starting pitchers are either hurt or bad. I just know I’m going to enjoy the ride and feel optimistic about the future. For once!

That, in turn, got me thinking about which NFL teams could experience a similar boost from their rookies this season. Not necessarily who had the best draft class, but which group of rookies could make the most positive impact in 2023.

So I narrowed it down to five teams, each at a different stage, that should anticipate valuable contributions from several of their rookies this year.

The Super Bowl contender: Philadelphia Eagles

Key draftees: Jalen Carter (DT), Nolan Smith (Edge), Tyler Steen (OL), Sydney Brown (S)

It’s not often that the Super Bowl runners-up, just months after their championship game loss, get the chance to draft two first-rounders. However, the Eagles were one of the exceptions when they drafted Jalen Carter and his college teammate Nolan Smith at No. 30. Depending on which prospect rankings and mock drafts you read, Carter was the top overall player in the 2023 class according to some analysts, while Smith was a potential top-10 pick. 

The early returns for both have been positive, though most of the work they’ve put in has been without pads and in individual drills. Carter has a good shot at earning a starting job in Week 1 after Javon Hargrave left in free agency, but even if neither starts right away, they should be important depth pieces on a defense that likes to rotate heavily. 

Third-round picks Tyler Steen and Sydney Brown are in the same boat. Steen, who was a tackle in college, is expected to play guard and compete for the RG gig — the only spot up for grabs following Isaac Seumalo’s departure. Steen’s ability to play different positions could also come in handy if any other linemen miss time due to injury.

Brown will either enter into the rotation or take the starting slot once held by C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Judging by his efforts to this point, Brown possesses the work ethic to do the latter. If so, he would give the Eagles the ball-hawking presence they lost when Gardner-Johnson signed with Detroit. He led the NFL with six interceptions last year, the same number Brown had during his senior season at Illinois. 

The Eagles are in great shape regardless. They drafted players who can help get them back to the Super Bowl, but they also don’t need any of their rookies to be immediate stars, even if a couple of them likely will be. 

The playoff contender: Seattle Seahawks

Key draftees: Devon Witherspoon (CB), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), Derick Hall (Edge), Zach Charbonnet (RB)

The Seahawks, behind Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year season, were a surprise playoff team in 2022. Then, with the hopes of going even further in 2023, they went out and got better this offseason. 

Like the Eagles, the Seahawks went into the draft with two first-rounders and came away with two players who can contribute as rookies. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has earned raved reviews so far in Seattle, from the likes of Pete Carroll, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Geno Smith, despite JSN being eased into practices to avoid aggravating his hamstring. As long as he stays healthy, Smith-Njigba will be a big-play threat for Smith in the middle, with Lockett and Metcalf on the outside. 

One of JSN’s highlights came against fellow first-round pick Devon Witherspoon, though the cornerback was at a slight disadvantage: He was lined up in the slot and it was a no-pads practice. Still, Witherspoon played well there overall, and that versatility and ability to learn on the fly are why Carroll is so high on him.

Derick Hall was a second-round selection, but from the Seahawks’ point of view, he’s basically like their third first-rounder. Hall should help bolster the defense, which failed to consistently pressure quarterbacks last season — Seattle ranked No. 28 in the league in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. In his final two seasons at Auburn, Hall had a pressure rate at 13.6 percent.

Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round, one year after taking Kenneth Walker III in the same round. While Walker ended up leading all rookies with 1,050 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in 2022, Charbonnet is more of a complete back and will earn playing time early in his career, whether he starts or not. 

The playoff hopeful: Detroit Lions

Key draftees: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB), Jack Campbell (LB), Sam LaPorta (TE), Brian Branch (S)

Although the Lions’ early draft strategy was confusing, the results were not. In the first two rounds, they targeted players who can jump in immediately and maybe even push the Lions into the postseason. 

Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta are already showing promise on an offense that was one of the NFL’s best in 2022 (Detroit ranked No. 5 in offensive DVOA). Running back wasn’t really a need for the Lions, but when they drafted the shifty playmaker, they traded D’Andre Swift to the Eagles soon after. Gibbs is an intriguing weapon in Ben Johnson’s offense — at least one former Lion has made Deebo Samuel comparisons — and should be expected to get the ball often, as a runner and receiver. 

Tight end was a need for Detroit, and LaPorta could quickly become a favorite target of Jared Goff’s, especially while receiver Jameson Williams is serving his six-game suspension for gambling. Head coach Dan Campbell, a former tight end himself, is confident that LaPorta can handle the workload coming his way.

However, the defense is where the Lions needed the most reinforcements. Both Jack Campbell and Brian Branch were fringe first-round prospects, though only the former was taken on Day 1. Neither is guaranteed to be a Week 1 starter, but they’ll both be in the rotation. Jack Campbell has a couple of linebackers ahead of him to beat out as he adjusts to the game, while Branch joins a secondary that’s much more loaded than it was last season. Either way, both rookies should be in the rotation and, based on their college careers, will make their presence felt.

The rebuilding team ready to take the next step: Chicago Bears

Key draftees: Darnell Wright (OT), Gervon Dexter Sr. (DT), Tyrique Stevenson (CB),  Roschon Johnson (RB)

Justin Fields finally broke out about halfway through his second season, but he was basically a one-man wrecking crew, with little support from his offense. In 15 games, Fields was sacked an NFL-most 55 times behind a work-in-progress offensive line and threw for just 2,242 yards to the league’s worst-ranked receiving corps, all while he set multiple rushing records. 

The Bears did their quarterback a favor by drafting their first first-round offensive tackle in a decade. Darnell Wright, who allowed just one sack in his senior year at Tennessee, was practicing with the first team during OTAs and is expected to snag the starting right tackle job. Wright will also block, at times, for fellow rookie Roschon Johnson, who has received a lot of hype this offseason. 

Johnson is a tough runner who forces missed tackles like he’s the Braves mascot facing a bunch of Pee Wee football players. But he can also do everything else — block, catch, play special teams — which means that even if Chicago employs a running back committee approach, as anticipated, then Johnson will still get his share of snaps. 

So on offense, Fields won’t have to carry the entire load himself this upcoming season. But will the defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL in DVOA in 2022, do its part not to blow games? Wellllll, Chicago’s defense isn’t anywhere close to its vaunted 1985 version, but we should see some progress, particularly with its young and growing secondary. 

That includes Tyrique Stevenson, who has already turned heads in Chicago with his performance in OTAs. Go ahead and pencil in the second-round pick as the starting outside corner. Gervon Dexter Sr. should also have a role early, perhaps even as a starter, depending on how quickly he comes along. So far, he’s doing everything the coaches ask of him. The Bears could certainly use a beefy athletic interior defender like him to plug up holes on what was a ridiculously porous defense last year.

The defense probably won’t be good enough to get the Bears a playoff berth, but if the team improves like it should, then the postseason is a realistic goal in 2024.

The rebuilding team that could flash: Houston Texans

Key draftees: C.J. Stroud (QB), Will Anderson Jr. (Edge), Tank Dell (WR), Henry To'oTo'o (LB)

The Texans pressed the reset button on their rebuild when they hired first-time head coach (and former Texan) DeMeco Ryans and used the No. 2 pick in the draft to land their quarterback of the future. That future is now because, barring any unforeseen circumstances, C.J. Stroud will be under center when the Texans visit the Ravens on Sept. 10.  Even if he experiences a few bumps along the way (as most rookie quarterbacks do), Stroud has been exactly what Houston has needed as of now.

With Stroud (hopefully) as the foundational piece for the offense, No. 3 pick Will Anderson Jr. will (hopefully) fulfill the same part for the defense. Though he’s ever-so-slightly changing positions, the edge defender hasn’t missed a beat from his days of wrecking quarterbacks at Alabama.

Anderson’s college teammate, linebacker Henry To'oTo'o, has also impressed during OTAs, earning “sleeper” buzz in the process. The fifth-round pick has more competition at linebacker than Stroud and Anderson have at their respective positions, but To'oTo'o has the football smarts, and skills, to get more playing time as the season goes on. 

Tank Dell established a rapport with Stroud before the draft and that connection has continued during practice. Even though Dell can carve out a role in the thin receiving corps, he might make his biggest mark this year on special teams. Dell showed off great instincts as a return man in Houston (the college) and could win the same job in Houston (the NFL team). 

The playoffs are long shot for the Texans, but this season won’t be so much about 2023 for them anyway. Instead, it will be about laying the groundwork for the next few years.