Which rebuilding NFL team can break through this season?
It (probably) won't be the Jets.
Hello again, friends. It’s been a minute since our last newsletter, and I’d like to apologize for that. I’ve been tied up the last few weeks with a little construction work at home. Well, it was supposed to be a little construction work, but it turned into a much bigger situation. I know some of you — pretty much anyone who has ever owned a house — can relate.
But it’s not just homeowners who understand that pain. In any given year, several NFL teams are in a rebuilding phase. This season, the Seahawks and Falcons have entered the fray after trading their longtime quarterback, joining the likes of the Texans and Bears, both of whom have a new head coach and major holes on the roster. All of these squads are near the bottom of the league in win total projections.
It hasn’t been that long since any of those four teams made the playoffs. The Seahawks were in the field during the 2020 season, while the Texans and Bears were there the year before that. The Falcons have had a longer absence — their most recent postseason appearance came in the 2017 season — but they hadn’t fully embraced a remodel until they parted ways with Matt Ryan. Similarly, the Broncos have one of the longest active playoff droughts in the NFL (not since their Super Bowl 50 title), but in that span, they haven’t been bad enough to tear it all down. With Russell Wilson in the fold now, they may have avoided that fate altogether.
I’d like to focus on the teams in between — the ones that haven’t sniffed the postseason in years and are still in the process of rebuilding. They’ve been through new coaches, new quarterbacks, and a lot of losing. Can any of them break through in 2022, like the Bengals did a year ago?
Let’s start with the owners of the longest active playoff drought and go from there.
New York Jets
2021 record: 4-13
Last playoff appearance: 2010 season
Chances of a breakthrough in 2022 (scale 1-10): 2
The Jets’ rebuild has gone through a couple different permutations since the notorious-but-hilarious Butt Fumble. Draft picks like Sam Darnold and Geno Smith weren’t the answer at quarterback; neither were journeymen like Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick (though the latter came the closest of anyone).
Zach Wilson is the franchise’s latest bet at the position, and after a rocky rookie season, his second year in the league is off to a bit of an ominous start. Wilson recently underwent successful knee surgery, and while he avoided a season-ending injury, he might not be ready in time for Week 1.
Even before that, his play during training camp was characteristically inconsistent. In fact, veteran Joe Flacco, who is filling in for Wilson as the starter right now, is getting better reviews from the supporting cast. Here’s Garrett Wilson, the Jets’ first-round WR, talking about how Flacco delivers a more “receiver-friendly” ball:
Worse news for whoever happens to be playing under center: Offensive tackle Mekhi Becton is out for the season with a fractured kneecap.
All of that sounds like the same old Jets, and I can’t say I’m optimistic that they’ll take a huge leap in a division with three potential playoff contenders. But there is some room for hope. Zach Wilson shouldn’t miss much time, and he’s still capable of making big plays. The Jets brought in some reinforcements this offseason, including Garrett Wilson, tight end C.J. Uzomah, guard Laken Tomlinson, and basically a brand-new secondary. I also think Robert Saleh, entering his second year with the Jets, is a smart coach, both analytically and emotionally.
The postseason is a long shot, but there should at least be signs of progress in New York this season.
Miami Dolphins
2021 record: 9-8
Last playoff appearance: 2016 season
Chances of a breakthrough in 2022 (scale 1-10): 7
Miami’s planned tank job in 2019 was foiled by then-coach Brian Flores, who decided he wanted to win games (and eventually paid the price for that). While the Dolphins are coming off back-to-back winning seasons, they couldn’t turn those records into an actual postseason bid. First-year head coach Mike McDaniel, a lifelong football nerd, is tasked with changing that — first and foremost by unlocking “all that greatness” in Tua Tagovailoa.
McDaniel’s pregnant pause here, when asked about Tua’s accuracy, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence:
But McDaniel is a creative offensive mind, and credit the organization with providing Tagovailoa with the right weapons in a make-or-break year. The Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill, giving Tua a speedy 1-2 punch at receiver with Jaylen Waddle. He has a legitimate left tackle: Terron Armstead, Miami’s biggest free agent signing. And the running back room is deep and versatile.
Even if the defense falls off a bit from last season, it should still be pretty good. Of all the teams on this list, the Dolphins are the one most set up for success, especially after being on the cusp of postseason contention for two straight years.
That said, the concerns surrounding Tua (and his injury history), plus one of the toughest schedules in the league, doesn’t guarantee that Miami can break its playoff-less streak in 2022.
New York Giants
2021 record: 4-13
Last playoff appearance: 2016 season
Chances of a breakthrough in 2022 (scale 1-10): 5
The Giants are in a similar situation to the team that also calls MetLife Stadium home. Like the Jets, the Giants have averaged 4.4 wins per season since 2017. Like the Jets, the Giants have cycled through a few head coaches and starting quarterbacks in that time. Like the Jets, the Giants enjoyed rare praise for their draft haul this spring.
However, the Giants have more established talent on offense, like running back Saquon Barkley and receivers Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard. They just haven’t been able to put it all together, due to bad injury luck, worse coaching, a shaky OL, and an up-and-down quarterback. The first two issues have been addressed: This offseason, the Giants mercifully dumped Joe Judge and hired former Bills OC Brian Daboll as their new head coach. They also revamped the offensive line with veterans Jon Feliciano and Mark Glowinski and first-round rookie Evan Neal.
Daniel Jones is still the quarterback, is coming off neck surgery, and has one final chance to prove himself to the Giants, this time with a competent coach. It’s more likely than not that they’ll decide to move on from Jones after this season, but we should expect to see improvement from the offense and, on the other side of the ball, the pass rush.
It might not be enough for the Giants to make a playoff push, though keep in mind that they play in the NFC East — which hasn’t had a repeat champion in 17 years — and will face one of the more manageable slates in the league.
Detroit Lions
2021 record: 3-13-1
Last playoff appearance: 2016 season
Chances of a breakthrough in 2022 (scale 1-10): 3
For anyone who watches Hard Knocks, it’s easy to buy into Dan Campbell’s passion and root for the Lions to take a big step forward.
It’s not impossible, even with the youngest roster in the NFL. Campbell has established a very specific culture in Detroit — one devoid of turds — and his players seem to have responded to his no-jerks philosophy. And several of those young bucks have the skills to help turn this team around: TE T.J. Hockenson, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and RB D'Andre Swift have already flashed. No. 2 pick Aidan Hutchinson will immediately improve the pass rush; Jeff Okudah has the potential to be a lockdown corner if he can just stay healthy.
Jared Goff is not the long-term answer at quarterback, and while he’s limited, he can also be serviceable, particularly with a strong offensive line and targets like Jameson Williams and DJ Chark now at his disposal.
With only the Packers looking like an actual threat in the NFC North, the Lions could try to #vibes their way to a wild card berth. Realistically, though, they are probably at least another year away from moving out of the bottom tier of the NFL power rankings.
Carolina Panthers
2021 record: 5-12
Last playoff appearance: 2016 season
Chances of a breakthrough in 2022 (scale 1-10): 4
The Panthers have struggled the last few years with injuries and mediocre-to-lousy quarterbacking. I’m not sure if Baker Mayfield — now the favorite to start Week 1 — is the answer to the latter, but I at least think he’s capable of being better than anything the Panthers have had under center since the last good year of Cam Newton’s career.
Last year, Carolina’s defense made strides and this year, it’s the offense’s turn to do the same. Not that the unit really has anywhere to go but up, finishing 2021 with the No. 31-ranked offense in DVOA. If Mayfield can return to his solid 2020 form, and Christian McCaffrey can actually stay healthy, then maybe the offense can make advancements and Matt Rhule *won’t* lose his job.
There are several question marks about the rest of the NFC South, which could be either positive or negative for the Panthers. Tom Brady’s mysterious absence, plus the injuries along the offensive line, could spell trouble for the defending division champs. Or Brady returns in time for Week 1 and continues to be Tom Brady, even at age 45. The Saints are riding with Jameis Winston, new coach Dennis Allen, and several new faces on defense — but will also welcome back Michael Thomas and pair him with first-rounder Chris Olave. The Falcons will probably stink, so that’s enough about them.
If everything breaks right for the Panthers, there’s room for them to compete. It’s just a little difficult to imagine them being that lucky.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 record: 3-14
Last playoff appearance: 2017 season
Chances of a breakthrough in 2022 (scale 1-10): 3
The Jaguars’ rebuild is off schedule by a year, thanks to the inadvisable, doomed-from-the-start Urban Meyer era. Most notably, the dysfunction of the coaching staff stymied Trevor Lawrence’s development. Now, Lawrence has a legitimate NFL head coach, Doug Pederson, who brings his QB expertise, and much-needed stability, to Duval.
Lawrence has a little more help this season on the field too, such as wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, who have been drawing rave reviews during training camp. Running back Travis Etienne, who missed his rookie year with a foot injury, is healthy again and ready to contribute as a rusher and pass catcher.
The defense has several new promising, if unproven, players. If No. 1 pick Travon Walker can shine in the regular season like he has this preseason, the Jags’ D will be in good shape:
Overall, however, this roster still has a ways to go. Like Detroit, Jacksonville doesn’t *need* to win a ton of games. It just needs to show it’s making progress and is on the right track. Then again, the Jaguars do reside in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions. Perhaps Pederson can get the Jags’ rebuild back on its original schedule, even if that doesn’t involve a spot in the playoffs quite yet.