NFL picks for a rare Week 7

Some familiar rivals square off this week. So do several teams that play each other once in a blue moon.

Last week was a return to normalcy in the NFL. In what has been a fairly unpredictable season so far, only one upset occurred in Week 6. 

That either means this season is starting to settle in, or that we’ll get a bunch of upsets this weekend to make up for last week. 

I guess I believe the former, since I’m mostly sticking with the favorites in Week 7. But I’m wary that the latter will happen, especially because almost half of the 14 remaining games are matchups we don’t see very often and thus are a little tougher to gauge.

Let’s take a look at that slate below, along with my picks in bold and the odds from DraftKings:

Patriots “at” Jaguars (-6)

Lions at Vikings (-1.5)

Eagles at Giants (+3.5)

Bengals at Browns (+5.5)

Titans at Bills (-9.5)

Texans at Packers (-3)

Seahawks at Falcons (-3)

Dolphins at Colts (-3)

Panthers at Commanders (-8)

Raiders at Rams (-7)

Chiefs at 49ers (-1.5)

Jets at Steelers (+1.5)

Ravens at Buccaneers (+3.5)

Chargers at Cardinals (+2)

And as per usual, Christian weighs in on a potentially tricky week with his picks at FTW.

In rare form

All the matchups in this section have happened 17 times or fewer in NFL history.

Jaguars over Patriots 

The Jaguars lost to a rookie quarterback in London last Sunday and it could very well happen again; Drake Maye had a promising starting debut with the Patriots last week. New England doesn’t have the talent that Chicago does, though, so I’m predicting that Jacksonville will notch only its third win ever against the Pats. 

Packers over Texans 

The Packers have lost to the Texans only once, all the way back in 2008. Granted, it’s a small sample size because the teams have met just five times ever. This is one of the most evenly matched contests of the week and as such, one of the hardest decisions of the week. In the end, I’m defaulting to the home team. 

Commanders over Panthers

One of the NFL’s oldest franchises and one of its youngest have played more often than I would’ve guessed (17 times). The Commanders hold a slight 10-7 lead in the series, but as things stand right now, these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Even though both have a new coach and a young quarterback, only Washington is having success with that combination. 

Rams over Raiders

I would have thought two LA teams — one current, one former — would have faced off more than 15 times in their history, but nope. While neither is very good this season, I’ll give the edge to the one that will play host in LA. The Rams should be more rested — and could potentially have Cooper Kupp back — after a bye week. 

Ravens over Buccaneers 

I might be tempted to pick the Bucs, who haven’t beaten the Ravens in 22 years. But I’m not about to bet against the power of the Johnny tweet.  

Chargers over Cardinals

Both franchises have been around long enough that I was surprised to find out they’ve only gone head-to-head 15 times before. In their three most recent matchups, the Chargers won a close one, the Chargers won a blowout, and the Cardinals won a close one. None of those outcomes would surprise me this time either. I ultimately decided on the Chargers because they have the better defense.  

A trade bump?

The trade deadline is still more than two weeks away, but four deals already got done earlier this week. Will the new acquisitions help their team win this Sunday?

Lions over Vikings

Can the best defense in the NFL slow down the hottest offense? They didn’t last year, though the Vikings were starting Nick Mullens at quarterback then — and the Lions had a healthy Aidan Hutchinson. I don’t think re-acquiring Cam Akers will matter that much to Minnesota’s hopes of staying perfect this week. The Vikings are probably due for a loss.

Bills over Titans

The Bills have won four games despite not having a true WR1, at least until they traded for Amari Cooper. The Titans have won one game despite having DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley, the latter of whom has been displeased with his targets. This isn’t a slam-dunk for Buffalo, but it was one of the easiest games for me to pick this week. 

Falcons over Seahawks

After a strong start to the season, Seattle’s defense has taken a step back. Injuries have been partially to blame, and maybe new addition Roy Robertson-Harris can help stop the bleeding. It’s Falcons vs. Seahawks, which means surely things will get weird. I’m taking Atlanta to keep its winning streak going, though. 

Jets over Steelers

The Jets have been losing (bad vibes) but just traded for Davante Adams (good vibes). The Steelers have been winning (good vibes) but seem to be on the verge of replacing their effective QB with a possibly washed Russell Wilson (bad vibes). In a vibes-based tie, I have to side with the one feeling good right now. 

The “just flip a coin” picks 

A few new and old foes face off this weekend.

Eagles over Giants

The Eagles managed to hold off the Browns last week, but it was closer than it probably should have been and then their coach got into it with fans. The Giants, who couldn’t get out of their own way against the Bengals, should be getting Malik Nabers back this weekend. They’re also down their left tackle, and at least one pass rusher (if not more). I’m leaning toward the favorite here, but I don’t feel confident in either team.

Colts over Dolphins

Both teams have been dealing with QB injuries and lackluster defense. But at least Indy’s offense has been decent, unlike Miami’s. The Dolphins are coming off a bye, so they had a chance to regroup. Enough so to win on the road? I’m not sure.

Bengals over Browns

The main reason this is a coin-toss game is because Joe Burrow is 1-5 against the Browns in his career and has never won in Cleveland. Even so, Burrow has been very good this year. Deshaun Watson … has not. 

Chiefs over 49ers

Patrick Mahomes has never lost to the 49ers. Maybe that streak ends in San Francisco. After all, the Chiefs have lost more offensive weapons than the 49ers this season and Brock Purdy has been more productive than Mahomes as well. And yet, Kansas City keeps rolling anyway. It’s hard to pick against the defending champs.