NFL picks for a reality check Week 6

Who could be getting a wake-up call?

In my last newsletter, I was riding high from a bounce-back week. Then my picks turned out to be mediocre, at best. After Week 5 wrapped up, I realized I was following the same path as the 49ers this year: W, L, L, W, L. 

Considering the Niners started Week 6 off with a win in Seattle on Thursday night, I guess that means I’m on target for another bounce-back week. 

So if the pattern holds, my picks below — in bold, with the odds from DraftKings listed after — should be pretty accurate. It’s science!

Jaguars “at” Bears (-1.5)

Browns at Eagles (-9.5)

Commanders at Ravens (-7)

Texans at Patriots (+6.5)

Cardinals at Packers (-5.5)

Buccaneers at Saints (+3)

Colts at Titans (-3)

Steelers at Raiders (+3)

Chargers at Broncos (+3)

Lions at Cowboys (+3)

Falcons at Panthers (+6)

Bengals at Giants (+3.5)

Bills at Jets (+2.5)

But if you’re looking for a second opinion, Christian is coming off a better week than I am and his picks are over at FTW. 

QB changes

A few teams have made a switch at quarterback this week, either due to injury or subpar play.

Texans over Patriots

Houston’s offense has struggled a bit this season due to injuries, and Nico Collins going on IR is another big blow to the unit. The defense, on the other hand, has been one of the best in the NFL, especially at pressuring quarterbacks. A daunting task awaits Drake Maye in his first ever start. 

Buccaneers over Saints

Rookie quarterbacks don’t often win in their debut — Caleb Williams was the exception to the rule back in Week 1 — and Spencer Rattler will have to face a Bucs defense fresh off a long week while the Saints have a quick turnaround.

Steelers over Raiders

The Raiders have gone back to Aidan O'Connell, while the Steelers are still sticking with Justin Fields despite Russell Wilson fully participating in practice. Both teams also have WR drama, but George Pickens, unlike Davante Adams, will play on Sunday.

Post-bye bump

Four teams were on a bye last week, and I predict that three of them will prove they used the time off wisely. 

Eagles over Browns

I don’t know if the week off was what the Eagles needed to regroup. It’s not like they fixed a ton of their issues in the 7-8 months between the end of last season and the beginning of this one.  Luckily for them, their next opponent is more dysfunctional than they are. 

Chargers over Broncos

The Chargers have lost two in a row after starting the season 2-0. The Broncos have been the opposite: started 0-2 and have now reeled off three wins a row. Bad injury luck was the main reason for the Chargers’ mini-slide, and because they were able to heal up a bit during their bye week, I believe they can get back to winning again. 

Lions over Cowboys

I don’t think Dan Campbell spent the Lions’ entire bye week plotting his revenge against the Cowboys for last season’s ref debacle in Dallas. I think he’s spent most of 2024 doing just that. 

Reality bites

Some of this week’s largest spreads seem, well, fair. 

Ravens over Commanders

The Commanders have been the best surprise in the early part of the season, but they’re about to visit what is probably a top-three team in the NFL. The Ravens can give the Commanders a rude awakening. 

Falcons over Panthers

Whatever small boost the Panthers got from switching to Andy Dalton is long gone. Carolina wasn’t expected to be good this season. That remains the case and will be again Sunday against a Falcons team that has found a rhythm with Kirk Cousins. 

Bengals over Giants

The Bengals keep losing agonizingly close contests that could have gone their way if they had just committed one fewer mistake. The Giants can sorta relate, though they have one more win than the Bengals — and aren’t as good, which I believe they’ll find out this week. 

Packers over Cardinals

The Cardinals came back and shocked the 49ers last week. While that could be a turning point for them, most likely they’ll be wildly inconsistent all season — and as such, are probably due for a letdown. 

The “just flip a coin” picks

And some of this week’s smallest spreads seem, well, fair.

Jaguars over Bears

All the Bears’ wins have come over teams that currently have one win; in that sense, they should beat the Jaguars. But the game is in London, the Jags’ home away from home, so I’m calling for the slight upset. 

Colts over Titans

With Anthony Richardson and Will Levis both coming off injuries, I don’t know who is starting at QB for either team. I also don’t know that it matters terribly much!

Jets over Bills

Oftentimes when a team fires a head coach, it turns around and wins its next game. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Jets in general, but I think the players had enough respect for Robert Saleh that they’ll give an all-out effort in his honor.