NFL picks for a clarifying Week 5

The only teams that will still be .500 after this week will be the ones on their bye.

Finally, I’m back on the winning side. After a terrible two-week stretch, my picks last week were pretty good again. If I were a football team, I’d be sitting at 2-2 on the season, just like about 40 percent of the league. 

Heading into Week 5, 13 teams were sporting a 2-2 record. That number has already decreased by one after the Falcons’ dramatic overtime victory against the Bucs on Thursday night moved Atlanta to 3-2. By the time the week is over, only two squads will remain at 2-2: the Chargers and Eagles, who are on a bye (as are the 1-3 Titans and 3-1 Lions). 

Before we try to determine who will join the Falcons at 3-2 and who will fall to 2-3, let’s first check out the rest of the Week 5 slate, including our first London game of the year. As per usual, my picks are in bold, followed by the odds from DraftKings as of Thursday night:

Jets “at” Vikings (-2.5)

Browns at Commanders (-3.5)

Ravens at Bengals (+2.5)

Bills at Texans (+1)

Panthers at Bears (-4)

Colts at Jaguars (-2.5)

Dolphins at Patriots (-1)

Cardinals at 49ers (-7.5)

Raiders at Broncos (-2.5)

Giants at Seahawks (-6.5)

Packers at Rams (+3)

Cowboys at Steelers (-2.5)

Saints at Chiefs (-5.5)

Be sure to peek at Christian’s picks at FTW, too. Hopefully, this week brings us a tad more clarity on where certain teams stand.

Breaking the tie

OK, now it’s time to look at several of the .500 teams and which ones will have a winning record after Sunday and which ones will have a losing record.

Vikings over Jets

Perhaps the game being in London will throw the Vikings’ defense off, or turn the Jets’ offense into one that is suddenly functional. But unless Davante Adams rejoins Aaron Rodgers, like, tomorrow, then I’m picking Sam Darnold to get a little payback on the franchise that drafted him.

Jaguars over Colts

The Jags are the lone winless team in the NFL and three of their losses were close. They’re due.

49ers over Cardinals

Weird things happen all the time in the NFC West, so I’m not going to write off the Cardinals, particularly when the 49ers’ injury issues don’t seem to be going away. But I gave Arizona the benefit of the doubt last week and really shouldn’t have. Fool me once, etc. etc.

Broncos over Raiders

I can’t say I expected the entire AFC West to be sitting at .500 or above after the first month of the season. That’ll change, barring a tie, after this game. Both teams are dealing with uninspiring play at quarterback, but only one — the Raiders — has its star receiver asking for a trade.

Packers over Rams

Matt LaFleur is 4-0 against Sean McVay and his team hasn’t been *as* ravaged by injuries. 

Steelers over Cowboys

The good news for the Cowboys is that, since they played last Thursday, they had a little extra time to heal up. The bad news is that almost everyone — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Brandin Cooks — is still injured. 

A loss would be concerning

If any of these favorites lost (which I don’t think they will), then it might be time to worry.

Commanders over Browns

I don’t know if the Commanders are as good as their 3-1 record or if the Browns are as bad as their 1-3 one. But I know it’s practically impossible to trust the Browns in any given week. Still, if the Commanders did lose, then it might be a sign that they’re not quite ready for primetime. 

Bears over Panthers

I’m not buying into Chicago’s offense just yet, and I don’t think a win over the Panthers would tell us much in that regard. A loss, however, would be a red flag. Luckily for the Bears, I’m predicting they’ll go above .500 again.

Seahawks over Giants

Seattle’s defense looked strong through the first three weeks, and then surrendered a perfect game to Jared Goff. I think the unit is pretty good overall, but if it gets shredded by Daniel Jones this week, I’m hitting the panic button. 

The “just flip a coin” picks

I’m on the fence about a handful of matchups this week — some of which involve the rest of the 2-2 teams that are in action.

Bengals over Ravens

The Ravens should be able to run on the Bengals, while the Bengals should be able to pass on the Ravens. In my mind, Baltimore is the better team but Cincinnati has done a good job in recent years of defending its home turf in this rivalry. In the end, my decision came down to one without any real logic: I just have a hard time picturing a “1-4” record next to the Bengals’ name. 

Bills over Texans

A big reason that the Bills fell to the Ravens last week is because they couldn’t stop Baltimore’s rushing attack. The Texans are still without Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Unless Stefon Diggs goes nuclear in his revenge game, I think Houston’s offense is a bit too one-dimensional right now.

Patriots over Dolphins

Both offenses are bad right now. New England’s defense, though, is better than Miami’s.

Chiefs over Saints

The Saints could easily be 4-0 right now, if not for two last-minute losses. I’m tempted to take them, especially with how out-of-sync the Chiefs have been on offense. But do I dare bet against Kansas City, which finds new ways to escape with a win each week? I want to, but nah, better not.