NFL picks for an indecisive Week 3
After an upset-filled week, it's hard to predict what the NFL has in store for us next.
I wasn’t right about much last week, except for one thing: I knew the NFL would deliver a slate full of upsets soon. I just thought it might come in Week 3 or 4, not Week 2.
Instead, underdogs prevailed in more than half of last week’s matchups. As a result, we have quite a few surprising 2-0 and 0-2 teams heading into Week 3.
It’s an early pivotal week for those winless squads. Since 1990, only 11.5 percent of teams that started 0-2 went on to make the playoffs. In recent years, that number is even smaller. Since 2021, only 9.5 percent of them have gone on to the postseason — as in, just the 2022 Bengals and 2023 Texans.
Of the nine 0-2 teams this year, four are favored in Week 3. I’m predicting three of them will win … but that would leave us with six 0-3 clubs, and that seems a little too high. Oh no, now I’m second-guessing myself! I blame all the unexpected results from Week 2.
OK, I’m sticking with my original picks, and I will probably regret it. Here’s a look at the schedule, with my winners in bold and the odds listed after (as of Thursday night, from DraftKings):
Broncos at Buccaneers (-6.5)
Giants at Browns (-6.5)
Eagles at Saints (-2.5)
Chargers at Steelers (-1.5)
Texans at Vikings (+2)
Packers at Titans (-2.5)
Bears at Colts (-1.5)
Panthers at Raiders (-5)
Dolphins at Seahawks (-4.5)
49ers at Rams (+6.5)
Lions at Cardinals (+3)
Ravens at Cowboys (+1)
Chiefs at Falcons (+3)
Jaguars at Bills (-5)
Commanders at Bengals (-7)
I’m still feeling indecisive, so be sure to check out Christian’s picks over at FTW too.
Staying winless
Last year, four teams fell to 0-3 after Week 3. The year before, it was only one (Josh McDaniels’ Raiders). But six squads have started 0-3 in the same season recently, back in 2020. Might we get a repeat?
Buccaneers over Broncos: While Tampa’s defense has been banged up a bit, Baker Mayfield has been killing it so far this season. Bo Nix? Not so much. The Broncos have kept it close in both losses, though, so maybe they’ll cover.
Browns over Giants: I don’t have a ton of confidence in either team, but I trust Cleveland’s defense more than Daniel Jones.
Packers over Titans: I’d be a little surprised if Jordan Love played, but if he does, that would certainly make this an easier game to pick. One stat was ultimately the deciding factor: Green Bay’s defense has forced the most turnovers (6) in the NFL, while Tennessee has the second-most giveaways (5). Will Levis is responsible for all five, as you might have guessed if you saw his coach on the sideline last week.
Bears over Colts: I think the Colts are better than they played last week in a pitiful showing against the Packers, but I also know Chicago’s defense can make it a long day for Indy. Caleb Williams should be able to heed C.J. Stroud’s advice about taking fewer hits: the Colts only have four sacks this season, and DeForest Buckner, who has 1.5 of them, is now on IR.
Raiders over Panthers: I feel bad for Bryce Young, but I’d feel worse for him if he was the one out there getting hit by Maxx Crosby (sorry, Andy Dalton).
49ers over Rams: Both NFC West rivals are dealing with way too many injuries, but only one has practically the entire starting OL on IR. And the other has Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
Time for that first win
At least a few of the 0-2 teams should earn their first victory of the year, though it’s no guarantee since none of them play each other.
Ravens over Cowboys: I have faith that Baltimore’s season won’t be defined by blown games and that Dallas will get its defense fixed. Considering the Ravens could easily be 2-0 right now, I figure they’re a little closer to getting back on track.
Jaguars over Bills: I have to call for at least one real upset. The Bills losing on Monday night would not be unusual, and one of the non-Houston AFC South teams is due for a win.
Bengals over Commanders: The Bengals probably should have beaten the Chiefs last week, but despite the heartbreak, they might have found their rhythm again. The Commanders will likely be a work in progress all season.
Staying perfect
Barring a tie, at least two teams should improve to 3-0 since they face another undefeated opponent this week.
Saints over Eagles: So far in this young season, these two teams have done the opposite of what I’ve predicted each week. I keep doubting the Saints, who have looked like the best team in the NFL in the first two weeks, so I guess I will pick them — and probably be wrong.
Steelers over Chargers: Both teams are 2-0 thanks to a strong defense and an offense that simply wants to grind it out. As much as I believe in a healthy J.K. Dobbins, I’ve got to side with Justin Fields against Jim Harbaugh.
Texans over Vikings: The Vikings have impressed me, and Brian Flores’ defense can give Houston’s offense some fits like the Bears did last week. But I have a feeling Stefon Diggs will be ready to show out against his old team.
The “just flip a coin” picks
Some of the other games I’ve already discussed are more of a coin toss than the ones below. I just think they’ll be decided by a closer margin than Vegas does.
Seahawks over Dolphins: The Seahawks have edged past bad teams to get to 2-0, while the Dolphins are 1-1 and just lost their starting quarterback for at least four weeks. I’m optimistic that Skylar Thompson has improved since he was thrust into duty as a rookie, but I also think Seattle’s defense is a pretty tough test in his first start in almost two years.
Lions over Cardinals: I don’t put much stock in the transitive property in football, but if it did accurately predict games, then the Cardinals — who crushed the Rams, rather than merely held them off in overtime — would easily beat the Lions. I think Detroit will rebound, though, in what could be a pretty fun contest.
Chiefs over Falcons: I admit, I’m tempted to take the Falcons here. The Chiefs are a little lucky to be 2-0 and the Falcons are a chaos agent. But KC will probably win at the last second for the third week in a row.