NFL picks for a chalky Week 2

Upsets are coming eventually, just probably not this weekend.

I thought Week 1 would be somewhat unpredictable, but it ended up mostly being the same old story. The Bengals got off to another slow start to a season. The Steelers’ offense wasn’t pretty and they still won. The Jets’ offense wasn’t pretty and they lost. The Panthers, now on their, like, 67th coach of the last few years, looked as sorry as ever. 

Week 2 has been a similar story so far, albeit in a much more somber way. On Thursday night, Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion, the third official one of his NFL career. It was another scary moment — made more so because the tackler was Damar Hamlin — and the good news is Tua didn’t have to go to the hospital after he left the game. But I don’t know what the future holds for him. For now, I’ll leave the speculation to others. 

I’m not going to try to awkwardly transition from that serious topic to my completely trivial Week 2 picks. Instead, I’ll just present them in bold below, along with the odds from DraftKings as of Thursday night:

Raiders at Ravens (-8)

49ers at Vikings (+5)

Saints at Cowboys (-6)

Chargers at Panthers (+4.5)

Colts at Packers (+3)

Jets at Titans (+4)

Buccaneers at Lions (-7.5)

Seahawks at Patriots (+3.5)

Giants at Commanders (-2)

Browns at Jaguars (-3)

Rams at Cardinals (-1)

Bengals at Chiefs (-6) 

Steelers at Broncos (+2.5)

Bears at Texans (-6.5)

Falcons at Eagles (-6.5)

The Dolphins were favored over the Bills, but I probably would have sided with Buffalo based on Josh Allen’s history against Miami. I don’t envision many other upsets this week, and neither does Christian based on his picks. 

However, we’re due for a weird week at some point, whether it’s now or later.

The spread is big, even if shouldn’t be 

I don’t gamble, but I was a little taken aback by a couple of these lines. 

Ravens over Raiders

The Raiders have been pretty bad recently in early kickoff games (as a non-morning person, I can relate!) and gave up 176 rushing yards to the Chargers last week. On Sunday, they’re playing in Baltimore against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. You do the math. 

49ers over Vikings

The Vikings looked better than I thought they would in Week 1, but the 49ers looked like they hadn’t skipped a beat — even without their best playmaker, Christian McCaffrey. 

Cowboys over Saints

To my surprise, the Saints’ new offense seemed legit in the season opener. But Dallas’ defense is a whole other beast compared to Carolina’s. 

Lions over Buccaneers

I’m not a betting expert, and yet I still kind of did a double-take at this line. I think the Lions will win, just by a closer margin than Vegas does. 

Chiefs over Bengals

I know why the Chiefs are touchdown favorites; Patrick Mahomes is 11-2 in the first two weeks of a season, while Joe Burrow is 1-8. It also doesn’t help the Bengals’ case when their players keep giving KC bulletin board material. That said, I expect another close game — all of the previous Mahomes vs. Burrow matchups were decided by 3 points — but not an upset.

Texans over Bears

Both of these teams toughed out season-opening wins and should bring an all-out effort to their showdown. But I’m taking the home team: Houston hasn’t hosted a Sunday night game in five years and will be ready. 

Eagles over Falcons

Kirk Cousins looked tentative in his first game back from his Achilles injury, AND he now has to play in Philadelphia on a Monday night? Yikes. I remember what happened the last time he met the Eagles on MNF.

The spread is medium-sized, which is fair

I’ll be honest: most of these matchups will probably be snoozers. 

Chargers over Panthers

I think the Panthers will win games — plural — this year, but I won’t consider picking them again until I see any kind of improvement. Jim Harbaugh might choose to run the ball 50 times on Sunday, and it’ll work. 

Colts over Packers

I’m assuming, though it hasn’t been confirmed, that Jordan Love won’t play. In that case, the Colts should be able to get their first win of the season — and first in almost a year with a healthy Anthony Richardson. 

Jets over Titans

The Jets didn’t inspire a ton of confidence last week, but then again, neither did Will Levis. Except if your name is Will Levis. 

Seahawks over Patriots

I know it’s a small sample size, but the Seahawks enter Week 2 with the No. 1 ranked defense, per DVOA. That seems like bad news for a Patriots offense that isn’t exactly explosive.

Jaguars over Browns

I’m not picking against the Browns because Deshaun Watson faces yet another sexual assault lawsuit. I’m picking against the Browns because Watson is a terrible quarterback now. 

The “just flip a coin” picks

I usually hesitate each week with all the contests that have a point spread under 3 points. Not this week!

Commanders over Giants

Both of these NFC East rivals lost by double digits in Week 1. Only one of the quarterbacks, however, was booed by his own fanbase. 

Rams over Cardinals

I know the Rams are already dealing with an ungodly number of injuries, and I know Aaron Donald is now retired. Still, I’m a bit surprised that Arizona is favored when Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals in his career. 

Steelers over Broncos

Justin Fields is expected to be in the lineup again for the Steelers, and when he faced the Broncos last year, he threw for a career-high 335 yards. Yes, Fields is on a different team, and yes, Denver’s defense has improved greatly since the first month of the 2023 season. Rookie QB Bo Nix has never gone up against T.J. Watt, though.