NFL picks for an unscripted Week 2

What do the screenwriters—I mean, what do the *players* have in store for us next?

During last year’s playoffs, a mostly-in-jest (I hope) conspiracy theory emerged that the NFL is scripted. It became such a joke that the league made an entire ad campaign around the premise. 

The NFL is not scripted, but it often feels like a story straight out of Hollywood. Take, for example, on Monday night when Aaron Rodgers trotted out on the field for the first time with the Jets, to much fanfare. Four snaps later, his season was over. Only the Jets, right?

But just when all hope seemed lost, superstar-in-the-making Garrett Wilson made a CGI-like catch for a touchdown. Soon after, undrafted rookie Xavier Gipson — one of the few roster bubble players that Hard Knocks followed this season — housed a punt for a walk-off touchdown.

I’m not sure if any of Week 2’s games can live up to the dramatics of Week 1, but I also know not to question the NFL’s ability to keep us on our toes. 

I wouldn’t consider any games this weekend to be “gimmes” — one of the closest, in my mind, was the Eagles over the Vikings on Thursday night. Even though Philly did win, it wasn’t what I (or anyone else) would call smooth sailing. 

The rest of the slate only features a couple of big favorites, per Draft Kings. The odds, as of Thursday night, are listed below, along with my picks in bold:

Raiders at Bills (-8.5)

Chiefs at Jaguars (+3.5)

Seahawks at Lions (-5)

Ravens at Bengals (-3.5)

Chargers at Titans (+3)

Bears at Buccaneers (-2.5)

Packers at Falcons (-1.5)

Colts at Texans (-1.5)

49ers at Rams (+7.5)

Giants at Cardinals (+4)

Jets at Cowboys (-9.5)

Commanders at Broncos (-3.5)

Dolphins at Patriots (+3)

Saints at Panthers (+3)

Browns at Steelers (+2.5)

Last week, my record was a Derek Carr-esque “so-so,” but I’m hoping to improve a little this week. Be sure to check out Christian’s picks because he’s much better at predicting what will happen. That won’t stop me from trying, though.

The teams that I think will shake off last week’s disappointing loss

Week 1 was not fun for several of last year’s playoff teams, but fortunately, the season doesn’t end after the first weekend — and Week 2 offers a great opportunity for them to bounce back.

Bills over Raiders

Poor Josh Allen was almost despondent after the Bills’ loss to the Jets on Monday night. While it’s true that his turnovers did allow the Jets to get back in the game, that’s hardly the only reason they lost. I expect both Allen and the Bills to rebound at home on Sunday. Allen has struggled before against New York’s defense, which is much more formidable than Vegas’ defense.

Chiefs over Jaguars

The Jaguars put up a fight when these two teams met in Kansas City during the Divisional Round of the playoffs, but the Chiefs were better and more experienced. The rematch will be in Jacksonville and KC could be without Travis Kelce, its leading receiver against the Jags in January, for the second week in a row. But Patrick Mahomes was hobbled then, and he’s healthy this time around. It’s not often he drops two games in a row, either. 

Bengals over Ravens

The last time these two rivals faced off was in the playoffs, when the Bengals turned a goal-line fumble into the go-ahead touchdown. The Ravens will be out for revenge for a game that was, as Kyle Hamilton put it in perfect Gen Z parlance, “low-key mid.” Yet the Bengals will be trying to get rid of the stink from their Week 1 loss to, as Ja’Marr Chase put it in perfect Ja’Marr Chase parlance, “some elves.” The weather will be better this week, the Ravens are already pretty banged up, and Joe Burrow got a haircut. I’m taking Cincinnati at home.

Giants over Cardinals

The Giants looked worse than I expected them to last week. The Cardinals looked better than I expected them to last week. Both lost, but only one felt like a fluky performance. The Cardinals, as I’ve said before, will still go hard and try to win even during a “tanking” season. The Giants will not stare down Dallas’ defense or play in a downpour each week. Luckily for them, you will find neither of those things in Arizona. Though I’ve had doubts all along that they can make it back to the playoffs this season, I do think the Giants can show resilience with a winning effort in Week 2.

Chargers over Titans

Last week, these two combined to lose by a total of three points. Both could’ve won, but only the Chargers looked like they had any real life even as they’re still getting accustomed to Kellen Moore’s offense. Granted, Ryan Tannehill won’t throw three interceptions every week to hamstring the Titans— if he did, he’d break George Blanda’s long-standing single-season interception record! — and the Chargers could be without Austin Ekeler. So, y’know, I don’t necessarily feel great about taking LA on the road here, but eh, [insert Joey Bosa shrug].

The teams that I think will get to 2-0

Last year, only six teams were 2-0 after the first two weeks of the season and all six eventually made the postseason. The Eagles are the first squad to get to 2-0 this year, but by the end of the weekend, they won’t be alone.

Lions over Seahawks

Neither side played much defense last year when these two combined for 1,075 yards and 93 points. The Seahawks won that round, but the Lions can avenge that loss with help from their not-terrible defense this year. Seattle’s defense, on the other hand, is off to an actually terrible start this year.

Buccaneers over Bears

The Bears depressed their fans — and themselves — with their dud of a season opener against the Packers. Maybe it’ll serve as a wakeup call for them to open up the playbook and take more chances. Considering how much they shot themselves in the foot last week, though, I’m worried that the offense won’t be able to get out of its own way against an experienced Bucs defense. 

Falcons over Packers

Last week, I was impressed with both of these teams’ defenses, which were able to capitalize off of the opposing offense’s mistakes to help secure a double-digit win. This week, both offenses could be asked to do more. I think Atlanta’s defense can make things tougher on Jordan Love than the Bears did, especially if Aaron Jones is out due to his hamstring injury. Meanwhile, I have hope — perhaps foolishly — that Arthur Smith will remember that Drake London exists.  

49ers over Rams

I’m never surprised by the Rams looking competent under Sean McVay, as they did last week. I am surprised whenever the Rams under McVay get a win against the 49ers, though. San Francisco has an eight-game regular season winning streak in this series, and oh yeah, is already in “mowing down every opponent” mode this year.

Cowboys over Jets

After watching how the Dallas defense harassed the Giants and their shaky offensive line all Sunday night, I would have picked the Cowboys over the Jets even if Aaron Rodgers hadn’t gotten injured. After all, my biggest concern about the Jets coming into the season was their offensive line. Zach Wilson might be more mobile than Rodgers, but he’s much less decisive. I’m afraid he’s going to find out the hard way what happens when he holds the ball too long against the Cowboys.

Commanders over Broncos

The Broncos have lost 15 straight to the Chiefs, and you know who was on the KC coaching staff for every one of those games? Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy! OK, OK, that probably won’t be much of a factor on Sunday. Honestly, I wouldn’t feel confident in this pick either way, but I settled on Washington and need to justify it. Here’s another (possible) reason: Chase Young could be back to face off against the frequently sacked Russell Wilson. 

Saints over Panthers

Derek Carr had a very Derek Carr debut for the Saints: He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t particularly good either. At least he showed early chemistry with Chris Olave, and New Orleans’ defense, as usual, was on point as it forced three turnovers and locked down the Titans on third down (2 of 12) and in the red zone (0 for 3). That’s probably not what Bryce Young wants to hear while he’s still getting acclimated to the NFL.

The “just flip a coin” picks

I could have tripled the size of this section, but I pared it down to only include the three matchups I deliberated about the most. 

Texans over Colts

Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud were both mostly fine, if noticeably rookies in their first ever start last week. Now the two are set for their first of what should be many showdowns in the AFC South. Houston’s defense did a decent job of keeping Lamar Jackson in check in Week 1, which doesn’t seem to bode well for the dual-threat Richardson. Of course, Trevor Lawrence didn’t exactly light it up against the Colts either, which might not bode well for the big-armed Stroud. I’m sticking with Stroud, though, in part because the game is at home and in part because his quote about being patient with the offense is something a lot of fans of a lot of teams (including his alma mater) need to hear.

Patriots over Dolphins

The Dolphins looked like the best team in the AFC last week, and Tua Tagovailoa is a perfect 4-0 against the Patriots in his career. Logically, I should go with the favorites here — I even initially typed “Dolphins over Patriots,” as if my subconscious is telling me I’d be a dummy to call for an upset. And maybe I am being dumb! But if it’s a close contest like Vegas predicts, I don’t think New England’s defense will fold like the Chargers’ did last week. And perhaps the Patriots’ late push against the Eagles (which came up short by a foot) is something the offense can build from in Week 2.

Steelers over Browns

The Steelers’ lackluster play was one of Week 1’s biggest disappointments. For the 36th consecutive game, their offense failed to reach 400 yards. There’s little reason to think that streak will end on Monday night, when they encounter a Browns defense that toyed with the Bengals. I’m sorry, though, I just can’t pick the Browns to win in Pittsburgh, where they’re favored for the first time in 34 years. Since 1999, Cleveland has ONE regular season win at Heinz Field/Acrisure Stadium. If the Browns leave Pittsburgh with a victory, maybe I’ll start believing the NFL really is scripted.