NFL picks for a meaningful AND meaningless Week 18

The postseason is on the line for about a third of the league. The rest of the teams don't have much to play for, though.

As usual, the final week of the regular season is a contrast between those with high stakes and those with practically none. This weekend, 11 teams will be vying for the five playoff spots that remain up for grabs. Four division titles are also on the line, as are all but four seeds. Only the 49ers (NFC No. 1), Ravens (AFC No. 1), Chiefs (AFC No. 3), and Browns (AFC No. 5) have their seed locked up, and as a result, will be resting their starters.

On the other end of the spectrum, a dozen teams have already been eliminated and don’t have much to play for except draft positioning. Some of them will also turn to backup quarterbacks this weekend. In fact, by the time Week 18 is over, the total number of quarterbacks to start a game this season should reach 66, tying last season’s NFL record.

Altogether, this week is one of the trickier ones to predict. Here’s my attempt to do just that, with my picks in bold, listed with the odds as of Thursday night:

Steelers at Ravens (+3)

Texans at Colts (+1.5)

Buccaneers at Panthers (+4.5)

Jaguars at Titans (+3.5)

Vikings at Lions (-3.5)

Falcons at Saints (-3)

Jets at Patriots (-2.5)

Browns at Bengals (-7)

Eagles at Giants (+5.5)

Cowboys at Commanders (+13)

Bears at Packers (-3)

Rams at 49ers (-4)

Chiefs at Chargers (-3.5)

Seahawks at Cardinals (+3)

Broncos at Raiders (-3)

Bills at Dolphins (+2.5)

Christian’s picks are also up at FTW, where he discusses the struggles of trying to figure out this week’s games. Let’s break them down and see if we can make any sense of them. 

Win-and-in scenarios

Eight teams have a simple path to the playoffs and/or a division title: win their final matchup of the regular season.

Texans over Colts

For the first time all season, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will be playing in a game that doesn’t start at 1 p.m. ET. Their Saturday night showdown with the Colts is their biggest yet: the winner goes to the playoffs. 

Back in September, Indy took the first matchup in Houston, but the Texans have improved dramatically since then. The timing of the kickoff shouldn’t bother Stroud, either. He only lost one primetime contest in college — to Georgia by the narrowest of margins — and he was still the best player on the field. While the Colts won’t be a pushover, especially at home, I have to believe DeMeco Ryans will have his team ready to go.

Buccaneers over Panthers

Just over a month ago, the Bucs only topped the Panthers by three points. Now, Baker Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury. He’ll also do everything in his power to 1) play and 2) beat his former team. Not just because he’s petty like that, but because Tampa needs to win to secure the NFC South title. 

Luckily for Mayfield and Co., the Panthers are probably mentally in Cancun already, judging by their lack of effort in a shutout loss to the Jags last week. 

Jaguars over Titans

Mike Vrabel is not a fan of the whole losing thing, so the Titans likely won’t just roll over for the Jaguars this Sunday. But Trevor Lawrence and maybe Christian Kirk could return for the Jags, who simply need to beat the Titans to win the AFC South — just as they did last year. Vrabel won’t like it, but I see a repeat of 2022. At least his season will be mercifully over (and perhaps his time in Tennessee as well).

Cowboys over Commanders

The Cowboys clinched a postseason berth three weeks ago, but the NFC East is still in their grasp. All they need to do is complete the season sweep over the Commanders. 

Even though the Cowboys’ road woes are well known by now, I don’t envision those issues rearing their ugly head in the DC area. The Commanders are on a league-worst seven-game losing streak and have rarely been competitive during that stretch. Dallas knows what’s at stake, too: the chance of playing host in the Wild Card Round, at the very least.

Packers over Bears

The Bears have lost nine straight in this rivalry and haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 2015. The Packers need to ensure both streaks stay alive to make the playoffs. 

Although the Bears don’t have a postseason berth on the line this week, the future of Justin Fields and the coaching staff could depend on how this game plays out. My gut instinct is that Chicago’s front office will keep Matt Eberflus but trade Fields. The defense has flourished since Eberflus took over — after the former DC resigned for reasons that remain mysterious — and while Fields has continued to progress each season, he hasn’t quite made the giant leap that would have made it an easy decision to stick with him. However, another loss to the Packers, which I’m forecasting, might make the decision to part with him just a little easier.

Bills over Dolphins

In my previous newsletter, I mentioned how I was starting to believe in a Hard Knocks curse when Bradley Chubb tore his ACL. Then, a day after a new episode dropped, Tyreek Hill’s house caught on fire (no one was injured, thankfully). 

The Bills smashed the Dolphins once this season and need to take them down once more to win the AFC East and slide into the playoffs. As the injuries and bad luck continue to pile up for Miami, I’m going with Buffalo to do just that, while the Dolphins settle for a wild card spot. Hopefully for their sake, the Hard Knocks curse will end once the finale airs on Tuesday.

Resting up before the playoffs

The four teams that have clinched their seed have already confirmed they’ll be giving their starters a break before the postseason begins.

Steelers over Ravens

With the No. 1 seed already in hand, the Ravens will rest a bunch of starters on Saturday, including MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson. The Steelers are sticking with Mason Rudolph, who has led them to two straight victories, despite Kenny Pickett being on the mend. 

Pittsburgh needs Rudolph to deliver one more win for its best chance at getting in the postseason — the Steelers also need a little help, with their least complicated path being a win plus a Jaguars or Bills loss. 

The Ravens already fell to the Steelers once this year, and under normal circumstances, I’d pick them to avenge that loss. However, Baltimore hasn’t won many games in the past few seasons when Jackson doesn’t suit up, so I’ll go with the Steelers to stay alive, for one more day. 

Bengals over Browns

I can’t say I was expecting a potential Jeff Driskel revenge game this year, but that’s what we’re getting in Cincinnati on Sunday. Driskel, a former Bengals backup, will be the fifth quarterback to start this season for the Browns, who are locked into the No. 5 seed and are giving Joe Flacco and other veterans the week off. 

Since drafting Joe Burrow, the Bengals have struggled against the Browns more than any other regular opponent. Burrow is 1-5 against Cleveland, and Cincinnati lost once more in that span: two years ago, when the Bengals rested their starters right before the playoffs. That worked out for them; the Bengals went all the way to the Super Bowl. I’m not ready to predict a similar fate for the Browns, but I will predict they lose this rather meaningless Battle for Ohio matchup. At least Cincy should get a rare W in this rivalry, even if it’s with Jake Browning instead of Burrow.

49ers over Rams

With their playoff spots secured, both teams will be going with backup QBs in Week 18. You’d think that would make this NFC West clash tougher to pick, but not for me. Two of my rules are 1) never bet on Sean McVay (a great coach, to be fair!) against the 49ers and 2) never bet on a team that’s starting Carson Wentz in the year 2024 (or 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 …). 

Sorry, Rams.

Chiefs over Chargers

Patrick Mahomes will get a break from watching his receivers drop passes. Well, kinda. This week, he’ll be watching them drop passes from his backup, Blaine Gabbert. The vet has attempted five passes with the Chiefs, two of which were interceptions. It’s especially difficult to trust Kansas City’s offense this week. 

Then again, it’s difficult to trust the Chargers in any week, let alone when they have an interim coaching staff and a backup QB of their own, Easton Stick, who has never won a start in his career. Gabbert has at least done that, even if it’s been five years and a couple of teams ago.

The “just flip a coin” picks

This section is a little longer than usual, but honestly, I could’ve included almost every single game on the Week 18 slate here.

Eagles over Giants

There is no reason this matchup should be classified as a coin-flip game, but that’s how much of a slump the Eagles are in right now. They’ve dropped four of their last five, with their only win in that time coming two weeks ago against the Giants. Even then, the Eagles had to hold on for dear life when the Giants staged a second-half comeback under Tyrod Taylor. 

NY should have beaten the Rams last week with a similar second-half rally, but the Giants kept shooting themselves in the foot. So did free-falling Philly in a loss to the Cardinals. Although the Eagles are the better team and should be able to notch a get-right win before the postseason, they’ve found so many ways to self-destruct lately that it’s not a given. 

Lions over Vikings

The Lions, still smarting over their controversial loss in Dallas, don’t have any plans to sit their starters on Sunday. However, they will almost assuredly be the No. 3 seed and don’t have much to play for, except pride … which Dan Campbell’s team certainly has in spades. 

The Vikings’ two main sources of motivation are their close loss to the Lions two weeks ago and that they have an outside shot at a playoff spot — Minnesota needs a win over Detroit, plus losses by the Packers, Seahawks, and Bucs or Saints. I don’t think they’ll sneak into the postseason, but the Vikings could give the Lions a test at home right before they host their first playoff game in 30 years.

Saints over Falcons

These two foes have similar records and are both erratic from week to week, so you never know what to expect from either. Since the Falcons won Round 1 of this rivalry earlier this season in Atlanta, I’ll go with the Saints at home in Round 2.

Patriots over Jets

Both of these teams are bad. The Jets have a slightly better record, and the Patriots have a slightly better DVOA ranking. But if this is the end of the Bill Belichick era in New England, a fitting curtain call for him would be beating the Jets for the 39th time as the Pats’ head coach— and 16th time in a row.

Seahawks over Cardinals

The Seahawks don’t control their own playoff destiny, but for the second straight year, they need to beat an NFC West rival in Week 18 and hope the Packers lose. That worked out for them last year, even though they needed overtime to top the Rams. 

If history is going to repeat itself, Seattle first has to do its part and get past Arizona. That’s easier said than done. Just ask the Eagles. But after their thrilling win in Philadelphia last week, the Cardinals traveled nearly 3K miles back home and could be due for a letdown. 

Raiders over Broncos

Jarrett Stidham is in a familiar place this week, both literally and situationally. Stidham returns to Las Vegas, where he started the final two games last season when the Raiders benched Derek Carr. This year, Stidham also got the nod for the final two weeks, this time for Denver, after the Broncos benched Russell Wilson.

Stidham played decently for the Raiders at the end of 2022, but he didn’t earn his first NFL win as a starter until last week against the Chargers. He knows the Vegas defense well from practice and will try to use that to his advantage. On the other hand, the Raiders players have made it clear that they want Antonio Pierce as their full-time coach, and the best way to make their case is to go out on a high note. That’s what ultimately pushed me toward the Raiders this weekend.