NFL picks for a contrasting Week 18
Some games matter quite a bit. Others, not so much.
The final week of the NFL regular season is always a dichotomy between teams that have very little to play for and ones that face high stakes. This year is no different.
As per usual, the most pivotal game of Week 18 earns the primetime slot. The Vikings and Lions will meet for the second time this season and the winner will secure the division title, No. 1 seed, first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The loser will get the “honor” of having the best record ever for a No. 5 seed.
Before that, the Ravens will have an easy path toward locking up the AFC North on Saturday. Then on Sunday, the Broncos will try to make it back to the postseason for the first time since the 2015 season, when they won the Super Bowl.
In between those are a bunch of games featuring teams that are resting their starters for the playoffs, and others that just want the season to end.
Here’s a look at all 16 matchups, along with my picks in bold and the odds from DraftKings.
Browns at Ravens (-20)
Bengals at Steelers (+2)
Saints at Buccaneers (-14)
Giants at Eagles (-3)
Bears at Packers (-10)
Bills at Patriots (+2.5)
Panthers at Falcons (-8)
Commanders at Cowboys (+6)
Texans at Titans (-1.5)
Jaguars at Colts (-5)
Chiefs at Broncos (-10.5)
Chargers at Raiders (+4.5)
Dolphins at Jets (+1)
Seahawks at Rams (+6.5)
49ers at Cardinals (-4)
Vikings at Lions (-2.5)
As I’m writing this, Christian’s picks aren’t up, but keep an eye on his byline — they might already be published by the time this newsletter hits your inbox.
Now, for the final time of the regular season, let’s preview this weekend’s games.
Week 18 picks
Ravens over Browns
In the 5-ish years that I’ve been making NFL picks, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a line this big. Then again, the Ravens will be playing for a division title, while the Browns will be starting their 40th quarterback in the last 25 years.
Bengals over Steelers
Unless the Browns pull off one of the biggest upsets in recent memory, the Steelers might not have much to play for, though they’ll certainly want to get off the schneid before the playoffs start. Meanwhile, the Bengals might not know their fate until Sunday. Pittsburgh won the first matchup between these two a month ago, but I’ve got to stick with the hot hand.
Buccaneers over Saints
The Bucs will take home their fourth straight NFC South with a win against a team they beat 51-27 earlier this season.
Eagles over Giants
The Eagles will be resting their starters, but I still trust their backups more than the Giants.
Packers over Bears
The Packers have only lost to good teams this year. The Bears are not that.
Bills over Patriots
This was a tougher decision than I thought, only because the Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed, so Josh Allen and the starters will only make a cameo, if that. The Patriots have looked pretty bad lately, though.
Falcons over Panthers
The Falcons need the Saints to do them a solid to even have a chance at the playoffs, and that likely isn’t happening. But they can help Michael Penix Jr. continue his impressive start and build on it for next season.
Commanders over Cowboys
The Commanders should have beaten the Cowboys earlier this year but lost due to special teams miscues. That probably won’t happen again.
Texans over Titans
I don’t know if the Texans’ starters will be playing, but they need to get some kind of momentum before the postseason begins — and get a little revenge over the Titans.
Colts over Jaguars
The Colts have alternated between wins and losses since Week 10, and considering they lost last week, I have to pick them to win this week. It’s science.
Broncos over Chiefs
So far, the only thing that has stopped the Broncos from ending their playoff drought is themselves. I’m optimistic they can get it done Sunday, particularly with Patrick Mahomes and Co. sitting this week out.
Chargers over Raiders
The Chargers have a shot at the No. 5 seed, depending on what happens Saturday between the Steelers and Bengals. Either way, you have to expect a Jim Harbaugh team to give a full effort.
Dolphins over Jets
Speaking of effort, the Jets looked like they quit last week, but if we’re being honest, they looked like that even earlier this year. Please, for Garrett Wilson’s sake, trade him this offseason.
Seahawks over Rams
If Ahkello Witherspoon hadn’t snagged an unbelievable interception, or if Riley Patterson hadn’t missed a last-second field goal, this game would’ve decided the NFC West. Instead, the Rams clinched the division and will be starting Jimmy Garoppolo and other backups this weekend.
Cardinals over 49ers
It’s possible Joshua Dobbs comes through in a revenge game, but I like the Cardinals to end their season on a good note.
Lions over Vikings
I’ve been riding with the Lions almost every week this season, while I’ve been convinced for a couple weeks now that the Vikings are due for a loss. Not going to change my approach now!