NFL picks for a bittersweet Week 17

We'll be saying goodbye to 2023 with a heavy slate of NFL games.

One New Year’s Eve when I was a kid, I was listening to the radio as I was trying to fall asleep. The station started playing Boyz II Men’s “It's So Hard to Say Goodbye to Yesterday,” and I remember this bittersweet feeling washing over me (as I’m sure happens to most people when they hear that song). 

As an adult, that’s now how I usually feel about the end of one year and the beginning of a new one. The calendar turning to the next year can be filled with new possibilities, but it’s also a rude reminder of how quickly time goes by. 

Like how it’s already Week 17 in the NFL. How is the regular season almost over?!

It’s been a whirlwind of a season, too. By this weekend, we will have seen at least 61 different quarterbacks start a game, the third consecutive season that the number’s been in the 60s. 

Four of those QBs have been with the Browns, who made history on Thursday night when they officially earned a playoff berth with a win over the Jets. Just over a year ago, Joe Flacco was leading the Jets to a comeback over the Browns in Cleveland. On Thursday, Flacco had Cleveland Browns Stadium chanting his name. What a year.

Other teams can join the Browns and grab a postseason spot on New Year’s Eve. There’s a long list of clinching and elimination scenarios for the remaining 15 games. Here’s a look at the slate, with my picks in bold and the odds updated as of Friday morning:

Lions at Cowboys (-5.5)

49ers at Commanders (+12.5)

Cardinals at Eagles (-12)

Rams at Giants (+5.5)

Patriots at Bills (-13)

Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5)

Saints at Buccaneers (-2.5)

Panthers at Jaguars (-6)

Raiders at Colts (-3.5)

Falcons at Bears (-3)

Titans at Texans (-4)

Steelers at Seahawks (-3.5)

Bengals at Chiefs (-6.5)

Chargers at Broncos (-3.5)

Packers at Vikings (-1)

My track record over the past couple of weeks hasn’t been great, so be sure to glance at Christian’s Week 17 picks too. Now let’s preview the final games of the 2023 calendar year.

For auld lang syne 

A few coaches and players will be flooded with memories when they return to their one-time NFL home this weekend.

Cowboys over Lions

So far, no opponent has left Dallas with a win this season — it hasn’t happened since Week 1 of last season. Someone who has done a lot of winning in Texas is the coach of the NFC North-winning Lions. Dan Campbell grew up near Dallas, went to Texas A&M, and played a few years for the Cowboys in the aughts. 

But it’s hard to bet against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, especially when they rack up nearly 40 points per game at home. Detroit, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom third of the league in scoring defense. 

49ers over Commanders

When former Washington OC Kyle Shanahan returns to the DC area on Sunday, the Commanders will finally be starting Jacoby Brissett. The veteran QB was lights out in back-to-back weeks after Sam Howell was benched. Unfortunately for Brissett, he’ll be facing an angry 49ers team, which is licking its wounds from a loss to the Ravens. Ex-teammate Chase Young, who has helped the Niners bring more pressure and increase their sack total, will also be looking to make his mark on the game and take down Brissett.

San Francisco’s normally productive offense has struggled the most against physical, highly efficient defenses in the two North divisions. Washington’s defense, one of the worst in the NFL, is none of those things. 

Eagles over Cardinals

The Eagles might be miffed with the way Jonathan Gannon left Philadelphia, but judging by the defense’s regression this season, they miss what their one-time DC brought to the table. In the past month, the Eagles haven’t really looked like themselves on offense or defense, though they did get off the schneid last week with a win over the lowly Giants. 

The Cardinals have a worse record than the Giants, but if anyone knows how to slow down the Eagles, it’d be Gannon. Still, with Kyler Murray’s status up in the air, and the Eagles’ decided talent advantage, I think Gannon will be the one who doesn’t like the way he’s leaving Philly this time: with a loss. 

Ravens over Dolphins

Both the Ravens and Dolphins are fresh off signature victories and could secure their division with a win. Whereas Miami only just defeated an opponent with a winning record, Baltimore has been doing it all season and has straight-up dominated division leaders behind MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson.

This week, the man with the near-impossible task of figuring out how to slow down Jackson is Dolphins DC Vic Fangio. The longtime coach had a stint in the late-aughts with the Ravens, including during the first two years of John Harbaugh’s tenure. The last time Fangio faced the Ravens, he was the head coach of the Broncos and was cranky about he way the game ended. The circumstances are much different this time around, but the end result — a frustrated Fangio — should be the same.

Texans over Titans

It’ll be a homecoming of sorts in Houston this weekend for both teams. The Texans brought back veteran safety (and previously suspended) Kareem Jackson, who began his NFL career in Houston alongside DeMeco Ryans. Mike Vrabel, who began his NFL coaching career in Houston, has been back to NRG Stadium several times now with the Titans, but Sunday will mark DeAndre Hopkins’ return to his former stomping grounds. 

Most importantly, the Texans should have C.J. Stroud under center again this week in a critical matchup for their playoff hopes. They won’t be able to clinch anything, but they could be eliminated with a loss (depending on how a few other games shake out). Stroud simply needs to be as good or better than Case Keenum — who led the Texans to a win in Tennessee two weeks ago — to help Houston get the win. As long as he’s healthy, I feel good about his chances. 

Chiefs over Bengals

On Sunday, the Chiefs and Bengals will meet for the fifth time in the past three seasons, but neither team looks the same as it did during the previous four battles (which were all decided by three points). Kansas City has lost three of its last four in the month of December, and Patrick Mahomes seems to have little trust (understandably) in any of his receivers. He also probably misses his former left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who now plays for the Bengals. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been without Joe Burrow for the past six weeks and is clinging to its postseason dreams. 

One thing is unchanged, however: These teams still like to talk trash! Ja'Marr Chase called out KC’s secondary, but given that Chase might not even play, and Burrow definitely won’t, I’m going with the Chiefs.

Let’s start the new year right

It hasn’t been the smoothest of seasons for some teams, but they can punch their playoff ticket — or at least stay alive for a bid — with a win.

Rams over Giants

The Rams had one of the lowest win totals in the league before the season started: 6.5, same as the Bucs, Colts, Texans, and Commanders (every team but the latter has eight wins so far). But credit to Sean McVay, as well as a quietly excellent Matthew Stafford, for the Rams to be in position to potentially clinch a playoff spot. 

First, they need to beat the Giants, led once again by Tyrod Taylor. It’s been a disappointing season for the Giants, who are probably ready to put 2023 behind them, but they’ve been a tough out in recent weeks. They’ll make the Rams have to earn a win, which is what I think will happen. If the Rams do that, plus the Seahawks lose, then LA will be back in the postseason.

Bills over Patriots

In their first matchup of the season, the Patriots stunned the Bills with a last-minute game-winning touchdown. In the two months since, not much else has gone right for New England, though backup-turned-starter Bailey Zappe did just lead a late drive to deliver a Christmas Eve victory to the Patriots.

Buffalo had much more of a roller coaster season. The loss to the Patriots snowballed into a mini-slump that saw the Bills go 2-4, with their only wins coming over the Bucs and Jets in that stretch. Since then, however, they’ve reeled off three in a row and suddenly look like the team no one wants to play in the postseason. 

The Bills can procure a playoff spot with a win this weekend, plus a little help. They should at least get the W on Sunday, one last one against the Patriots before they (likely) move on from the Bill Belichick era.

Buccaneers over Saints

Somewhat unexpectedly, the Bucs can claim their third straight NFC South title if they beat the Saints for the second time this season. If Baker Mayfield can continue the tear he’s been on lately, that’s more likely than not. Mayfield, once thought to be a stopgap solution, has had a resurgent year and could be back in Tampa on a longer-term basis. 

The Saints have not had as much success with the more expensive Derek Carr, but there’s still time, albeit not much, for that to change. If it doesn’t, the Saints could be among the teams looking for a new head coach.

Jaguars over Panthers

A couple times in the past month, I’ve written something like, “well, Trevor Lawrence has an injury and isn’t supposed to play, so I’ll pick the Jaguars’ opponent.” And then Lawrence plays and the Jags still lose. At this point, I expect Lawrence to start unless I see it with my own eyes. 

Jacksonville is mired in a four-game skid but is still the favorite to end up as AFC South champs. In fact, the Jags can lock the division down this weekend with a win over the Panthers, along with losses by the Texans and Colts. The first part of that equation is more probable than the latter considering the depressing season Carolina has had.

On a positive note, Bryce Young has been playing well the past couple weeks and is coming off his best performance yet. A strong end to his rookie season could give the Panthers some hope going into the new year, whether they win or lose. But probably lose.

Colts over Raiders

The Colts will remain in the playoff hunt with a win, while the Raiders will as well — but only if the Chiefs lose. I’ll give the edge to Indy at home. Not only are the Colts the more balanced team per DVOA, but the Raiders have yet to beat an opponent when traveling east of the Mississippi River this season. 

Even though a loss would eliminate Vegas from playoff contention, there is a silver lining: The Raiders just might have their head coach for next season.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Don’t let Jaire Alexander anywhere near that coin, though!

Falcons over Bears

Neither of these teams can be trusted, and this feels like one of those picks that I’m destined to be wrong about no matter what. If I went with the Bears, the Falcons would win. I’m going with the Falcons, so the Bears probably will. Either way, Atlanta will have its eye on Justin Fields — on Sunday, of course, but also perhaps for next season.

Seahawks over Steelers

Both teams have had a recent four-game losing streak. Since then, the Seahawks have won two straight in dramatic fashion, while the Steelers needed Mason Rudolph to bail them out of their freefall. Because this contest is in Seattle, I’m taking the Seahawks, but I also know Mike Tomlin is one win away from another non-losing season. I wouldn’t count out Pittsburgh, now or next week. 

Broncos over Chargers

The Broncos benched Russell Wilson for performance-related reasons and not. As his time in Denver winds down, Jarrett Stidham takes over as the starter, just as he did a year ago for Derek Carr in Vegas. 

Stidham put up big-time numbers in his first start last season and could very well do the same this season because, well, he’ll be going against the Chargers’ defense. That said, the Chargers gave the Bills all they could handle last week, so I wouldn’t necessarily expect a repeat of Denver’s cakewalk win over LA a few weeks ago.

Packers over Vikings

The vibes are off for both of these NFC North foes (maybe that’s what happens when the Lions finally win the division?). The Packers will be without starting cornerback Jaire Alexander, who they suspended this week for his coin-flip related shenanigans that could have cost them a victory over the Panthers. The Vikings lost tight end T.J. Hockenson to an ACL/MCL tear and have also turned back to Jaren Hall, the second time in a few weeks that they’ve switched QBs due to turnover issues. 

Minnesota easily won Round 1 two months ago, with Kirk Cousins but without Justin Jefferson in the lineup — the opposite of the situation this Sunday. I’ll also pick the opposite result — a Green Bay win — in Round 2, but I don’t feel very confident about that.