NFL picks for a naughty-and-nice Week 16

There are a few highly anticipated Christmas week matchups ... and others that you should feel free to skip.

I have a confession to make: I’ve had a tough time getting into the holiday spirit this year. That’s usually not the case. I love Christmastime! But due to various life stressors, I haven’t been in a very festive mood. 

While I would normally go all-out with Christmas references in this edition of the newsletter, I’m going a bit lighter on them this time, though there are still a few scattered throughout. That said, I’m optimistic that in the next few days, I’ll be much jollier, so maybe my next newsletter — which will be sent out on Tuesday rather than Monday (Christmas Day) — will embrace the holiday theme a little more. 

To be honest, I’m also kinda bummed that for the second year in a row, the NFL has monopolized Christmas Eve. And we’ll have Christmas Day games for the fourth straight year!

I hope you’re able to watch as little or as much football as you wish this weekend, but for those of you who need to be a little choosier about which games to pay attention to, I’m here to help out with my own version of the naughty and nice lists.

But first, take a look my picks for Week 16, listed below in bold along with the odds as of Thursday night:

Bengals at Steelers (+3)

Bills at Chargers (+12.5)

Lions at Vikings (+3)

Packers at Panthers (+5)

Browns at Texans (+3)

Colts at Falcons (-2.5)

Seahawks at Titans (+3.5)

Commanders at Jets (-3)

Jaguars at Buccaneers (-3)

Cowboys at Dolphins (-1)

Cardinals at Bears (-4)

Patriots at Broncos (-7)

Raiders at Chiefs (-10)

Giants at Eagles (-13.5)

Ravens at 49ers (-5.5)

Christian is already 1-0 this week after the nice (re: watchable) Rams beat the naughty (re: unwatchable) Saints. Now let’s check out the rest of the Christmas week slate.

Visions of sugar plums

If you can carve out time to sit down and watch football, these are the games and storylines I believe are worth following the most this weekend.

Lions over Vikings

Last weekend, the Lions were able to break out of their malaise and put together a complete effort in their rout over the Broncos. Jared Goff was on fire, with five touchdown passes and zero turnovers. 

The Vikings, who are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Bengals in overtime, should be a tougher test and need a win to help their playoff chances. But the Lions will be getting a boost with the return of C.J Gardner-Johnson — who has his dogs to thank for keeping him sane during his recovery process — and something monumental to play for: their first division title in 30 years. With the win that I’m predicting will happen, Detroit will be in the postseason. 

Browns over Texans

Joe Flacco and Case Keenum, both in their mid-to-late 30s, are in the veteran journeyman portion of their careers. Neither was expected to start at any point this season — Flacco wasn’t even signed until November — and here they are going head-to-head for the fifth time (the first since 2018). And it could actually be a decent game!

Flacco is 2-1 as the Browns’ starter and just led them to a comeback win over the Bears. Keenum is 1-0 filling in for C.J. Stroud, who remains in concussion protocol, and rallied the Texans to an overtime win in Tennessee. Both teams have a knack for winning close contests; Cleveland is 6-2 in one-score games, and Houston is 6-3.

Yet look at the opponents the Texans struggled with most this year: the Ravens and Jets, who have the No. 2 and No. 3 defense, respectively, per DVOA. The Browns? Well, they’re ranked first in that category. Even with their road woes this season, I think they win this pivotal wild card matchup. 

Dolphins over Cowboys

At the moment, the Dolphins don’t have any wins against opponents with a record over .500. The Cowboys only have two: against the Eagles and Rams, the latter of which improved to 8-7 on Thursday night. 

If this game were in Dallas, I’d take the Cowboys and not think twice about it. But they haven’t been as dominant on the road as they are at AT&T Stadium. And after seeing James Cook run all over the Dallas D last week, I’m concerned that the Cowboys won’t be able to stop Miami’s dynamic ground attack, particularly with the big man in the middle, Johnathan Hankins, out for probably two more weeks.

One player who should be back in the lineup is Tyreek Hill. Factor all that in — plus Tua Tagovailoa’s love of Christmas — and I’m envisioning this is the week the Dolphins get the monkey off their back and beat a team with a winning record. Either way, it should be worth keeping your eye on this matchup.

Bears over Cardinals

I’m not saying this will be a good game, considering both teams are in line for top-five picks. But I do think the playmaking ability of Justin Fields and Kyler Murray could make this an exciting battle. So could the bigger narrative surrounding both QBs: what’s their future with their current franchise?

The Cardinals seem more committed to Murray than the Bears to Fields, but Murray acknowledged that he still needs to prove himself every time he takes the field this season. Fields also has to show out in the final weeks, whether that’s to solidify his future with the Bears or his trade potential to another team. 

I’m taking a chance by siding with the Bears this week — I don’t think they’ve won this year the rare time(s) I’ve dared to pick them — but mostly because I hope Fields’ teammates try to make up for last week’s loss.

Eagles over Giants

Here’s another matchup that doesn’t look great on paper and might not be all that competitive, if the odds are correct. The reason to pay attention to this NFC East showdown isn’t necessarily about the final score, however.

Choose your favorite storyline: Will the Eagles get out of their rut and stop being so predictable on offense? Will Matt Patricia call better plays on third-and-long? Will Tommy DeVito play well enough to get a serious look as the Giants’ starter next year, or will DeVito fever die down like it did with Josh Dobbs? What will DeVito’s agent be wearing? Will Eagles fans throw snowballs at Santa?

The Eagles need a get-right game in the worst of ways. I don’t know if that’s what this will be, but at the very least, it should be a win.

49ers over Ravens

I will not use this space to fire off another rant about Brock Purdy being the MVP frontrunner, but I will link to this article about how Purdy’s stats are more of a reflection of the entire 49ers’ passing offense than of the QB himself. 

In any event, we will not be able to avoid the MVP conversation on Christmas night, with Purdy and the NFC’s top team facing off against Lamar Jackson and the AFC’s top team. I will say that the last time the Niners played an opponent with a defense in the same vicinity as the Ravens’ was two months ago in Cleveland, a game which the Browns won. I will also note that the most hyped 49ers matchups of the season — against the Cowboys and Eagles in particular — ended up being cakewalks for San Francisco.

I think the Ravens can be more of a threat, especially when you remember Jackson’s ridiculous record against NFC teams. However, I don’t know that they have the playmakers, outside of Jackson of course, to keep up with the Niners’ offensive machine.

A lump of coal

If you’re strapped for time, my advice would be to only check the box scores of the games below, unless something wild happens. 

Bills over Chargers

If this game had taken place a month or two earlier, then it might have been interesting. Alas, the Bills have rediscovered their juggernaut mode, while the Chargers are coming off a two-week stretch that saw them 1) lose Justin Herbert for the season, 2) get humiliated in primetime by the Raiders, and 3) fire their coach and GM. 

At least the Chargers still have the No. 1 social media team in the NFL!

Packers over Panthers

Just when we thought Jordan Love and the Packers had figured things out, they dropped back-to-back games to the Giants and Bucs. Meanwhile, the Panthers won for only the second time when they hit a game-winning field goal against the Falcons in front of dozens of fans in Carolina.

Despite the rare win, the Panthers have been completely unwatchable all year, and the Pack have had a couple stretches — including the one they’re in now — where they’re similarly not much fun. I think Green Bay will win because it’s the better team, but I wouldn’t spend much effort on Christmas Eve keeping up with this one.

Buccaneers over Jaguars

The only reason I’m including Bucs-Jags in this section is because Trevor Lawrence, like the rest of the AFC South starting QBs, likely won’t play this weekend. I don’t know about you, but I have little interest in watching Jacksonville’s offense, which can’t stop getting out of its own way, without Lawrence. Even though his turnover rate is up this season, I don’t put most of the blame on Lawrence for that. 

If Lawrence were cleared, I’d probably pick the Jaguars to end their three-game. Instead, I’m going with the Bucs to continue their winning streak behind Baker Mayfield, who has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception in the past three weeks.

Broncos over Patriots

I’d suggest you spend your Christmas Eve night doing whatever you normally do: playing board games with friends and family, watching your favorite holiday movie with a tasty beverage, wrapping all the presents you bought at the last minute. But if you really want to tune in to a 19-13 slopfest between the Broncos and Patriots on Sunday Night Football, well, that’s your prerogative. It’s still football, despite what New England’s offense might lead you to believe. 

Chiefs over Raiders

No offense to Patrick Mahomes, who continues to sling it like only he can. But his “supporting” cast has been brutal lately, and it’s turned the affable Mahomes into someone who is visibly frustrated each week. 

As for the Raiders, their only win in recent weeks came in a blowout over the D.O.A. Chargers. One of their losses in that span was to Chiefs, in a game that I don’t really remember even though it happened less than a month ago. I don’t expect the rematch to look much different, both in terms of the result and its memorability.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Like the last section, I don’t know how watchable any of these games will be. But they might be close, so that’s something!

Bengals over Steelers

I won’t completely count out a team starting an unheralded quarterback with the last name of “Rudolph,” this weekend of all weekends. But when that quarterback is Mason Rudolph, I’m less inclined to back them. That’s especially true when the Steelers have been so messy on the field and in the locker room. 

The Bengals are expected to be without Ja’Marr Chase, and though they prevailed last week after he went down, it took incredible catches from Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to make it happen — and might not be so easily replicable. 

The Steelers came out on top the last time these two AFC North foes met a month ago, in Jake Browning’s first ever start and when Kenny Pickett was still in the lineup for Pittsburgh. The Bengals have been better since then and the Steelers worse, which is why I went with Cincinnati. But as always in this rivalry, who knows what you’re going to get.

Colts over Falcons

Neither one of these teams is exuding good vibes right now, though both remain alive in the playoff race. The Colts have been winning — four of their last five, in fact — but their main issue is in the locker room, where two players have been suspended for the rest of the season for … reasons, I guess. 

The Falcons, after blowing two games in a row, have once again switched from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke. His vibes, unlike his team’s, are excellent. But Heinicke didn’t jump-start the offense the last time Atlanta inserted him into the lineup, so I have my doubts that he’ll be the answer this time either.

Seahawks over Titans

Geno Smith vs. Ryan Tannehill? Drew Lock vs. Will Levis? Smith vs. Levis? Lock vs. Tannehill?

I don’t know who will be starting for either team, or even what to anticipate from them in any given week. The Titans can go from a historic comeback against the then-No. 1 seed Dolphins to an OT loss to the Case Keenum-led Texans. The Seahawks can go from a four-game losing streak to a swaggy Drew Lock-led rally over the then-No. 2 seed Eagles. Seattle is fighting for a playoff berth, though, so I’ll give the edge to Pete Carroll’s crew.

Commanders over Jets

Ah yes, the battle we’ve all been waiting for: the NFL’s worst defense against the NFL’s worst offense. And the Jets’ offense will probably be worse than usual since Zach Wilson remains in concussion protocol. That should put Trevor Siemian in the starting lineup. For reference, Wilson has a league-low 30.1 QBR among qualified quarterbacks. Siemian’s QBR in limited action is 5.4.

Sam Howell will probably get sacked a bunch, but perhaps getting benched last week for Jacoby Brissett will light a fire under the young quarterback. If not, the Commanders could always bench Howell again and let Brissett and Terry McLaurin tear it up together. While that’s a tall task for anyone against NY’s defense, I suppose I’m expecting Aaron Rodgers’ bad karma coming around to hurt the Jets again.