NFL picks for a decisive Week 13

A lot of winning and losing streaks are on the line this weekend.

Welcome to December, the “put up or shut up” month on the NFL calendar. This week, we have our first playoff clinching AND eliminating scenarios: the Eagles can punch their postseason ticket, while the Patriots, Panthers, and Cardinals can all officially be knocked out of contention. 

The Week 13 schedule is a little lighter than usual because six teams are on their bye, but each game matters in its own way. Like on Thursday night, when the Cowboys came back to beat the Seahawks. Not only did Dallas stretch its home winning streak to 14 games, but the victory also kept the Cowboys on the heels of the Eagles in the NFC East race. 

As it so happens, there’s a lengthy winning or losing streak on the line in every single matchup this weekend. Before we get into the details, though, let’s take a look my picks for this weekend, listed in bold along with the odds as of Friday morning: 

Dolphins at Commanders (+9.5)

Lions at Saints (+4)

Chargers at Patriots (+5.5)

Cardinals at Steelers (-5.5)

Panthers at Buccaneers (-5)

Falcons at Jets (+2)

Colts at Titans (+1)

Broncos at Texans (-3)

49ers at Eagles (+3)

Browns at Rams (-3.5)

Chiefs at Packers (+6)

Bengals at Jaguars (-8.5)

The Eagles-49ers clash is the obvious headliner (and the one I waffled on the most). If you’d like a second opinion about that one, or any of the others, Christian’s Week 13 picks are live at FTW. 

Now it’s time to go — I mean, talk about — streaking.

A losing battle

Six teams came into Week 13 with losing streaks that were at least three games long: the Jets, Patriots, Bengals, Chargers, Commanders, and Panthers. Most of them will not break that slide.

Dolphins over Commanders

This game could be better than it appears on paper, and not just because it will surely provide us with more must-watch Mike McDaniel segments on Hard Knocks. The Dolphins haven’t been as explosive on offense lately, which could give the Commanders’ defense a chance to ride the post-Jack Del Rio wave. 

On the other hand, they don’t have anyone in the secondary who can keep up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Plus, Miami’s defense has been steadily improving and will look to add to its sack total (38, third-highest in the NFL) against the often-sacked Sam Howell. In the end, I believe Washington, losers of three in a row, will extend its slump.

Chargers over Patriots

Barring a tie, one of these teams will put a stop to their current losing skid (three games for LA, four for NE). Even on his worst day, Justin Herbert is twice the quarterback that Bailey Zappe/Mac Jones will ever be. The Patriots are terrible, and their own players know it. But if the Chargers happen to Chargers it up in New England on Sunday, then I think Brandon Staley would be gone come Monday morning.

Buccaneers over Panthers

The Raiders, the only other team so far to can their head coach during the season, got the post-firing bump with two straight wins following Josh McDaniels’ ouster. The Panthers can follow suit after letting go of Frank Reich, with winnable games against NFC South opponents on the horizon. 

The problem with that, besides the Panthers being the lowliest team in the NFL this season, is that they are winless on the road and have been outscored by a double-digit average in those contests. To be honest, that’s not all that different from their home losses either. Carolina is simply bad this year, while the Bucs are just mediocre.

Falcons over Jets

Aaron Rodgers’ return to practice briefly took the spotlight away from how inept the Jets have looked during their four-game losing streak. Whether Rodgers actually plays again this season will be determined by two factors: how his recovery progresses and how the Jets perform the next few weeks. 

Can they piece together any wins to stay alive in the playoff race, starting this week? I mean, maybe. It’s not like the Falcons are ever that trustworthy, and NY’s defense can still make life tough for the opposing quarterback. But when your own QB is Tim Boyle and your offense has averaged 157 total yards in the past two games, it’s hard to be optimistic that the losing will cease. 

Jaguars over Bengals

Jake Browning, in his first ever start, looked better than I thought he would last week against the Steelers. Still, he wasn’t able to lead the Bengals to a win. Instead, they came up short for the third week in a row. Next up for Browning is a QB duel with the red-hot Trevor Lawrence and a head-to-head battle with Jags edge rusher Josh Allen, who already has a career-high 12 sacks on the season. So most likely, Cincy will come up short once again.

Winning time

Here, I focused on teams that have a different kind of winning streak: one over a certain opponent or division, at a familiar stadium, or in a specific time slot. 

Steelers over Cardinals

The Steelers have never dropped a home game to the Arizona Cardinals. You’d have to go back to 1969 — the same date that Monty Python’s Flying Circus premiered, in fact — to witness a Cardinals NFL team (then residing in St. Louis) earning a victory in Pittsburgh. The Steelers also have a four-game winning streak, dating back to Super Bowl 43, against Arizona. 

While James Conner will be hungry in his return to Pittsburgh and Kyler Murray could burn the defense for a couple big plays, the Cardinals don’t have the talent or experience to extinguish the Steelers’ dominance in this series.

Lions over Saints

On Sunday, the Lions can improve their record to 4-0 this season against the NFC South (and will also have a chance to do the same against the AFC West in a few weeks, which would be slightly more impressive).

The Lions and Saints are both looking to bounce back from their deflating Week 12 loss to a hated foe. This matchup will likely be decided in the red zone, where both Detroit’s defense and New Orleans’ offense have struggled. And Derek Carr’s testy non-answer about the Saints’ stalled drives gives me no faith that they’ll get their problems sorted out this week (or anytime soon). 

Titans over Colts

The Colts are currently hanging on to one of the wild card spots in the AFC, and they would stay that way with a series sweep over the Titans. Earlier this season in Indianapolis, the Colts held off the Titans, their first win in the rivalry in three years. 

Both teams will look a little different but not dramatically so. Gardner Minshew, who came on in relief of an injured Anthony Richardson in the second half, will get the start for Indy in the rematch. Jonathan Taylor will also be out, but Zack Moss ran for a career-high 165 yards last time.

Meanwhile, Tennessee has since turned to rookie quarterback Will Levis. Even if Levis has been more of a game manager since his four-touchdown debut, he is at least not turning the ball over as much as Ryan Tannehill did. Mostly, though, I’m picking the Titans because of their perfect 4-0 record this year in Nashville. This team seems to feed off the energy from its fans, enough so to keep that record intact and end the Colts’ three-game winning streak at the same time. 

Chiefs over Packers

Technically, the Chiefs have lost a Sunday Night Football matchup this season: Their Week 1 defeat to the Lions was a SNF production, though it took place on a Thursday night. 

But it’s been more than two years since KC has lost an outing that actually occurred on a Sunday night. That streak includes six games in the regular season and four in the playoffs. The Packers, who are on a winning run for the first time this season, finally have some momentum … which will probably shrivel up when “Mr. Sunday Night” (not his nickname) Patrick Mahomes steps on Lambeau Field in primetime.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Two of the teams in this section have the longest current winning streaks in the NFL: the Broncos and Eagles, at five games apiece. You’d think that would make them slam-dunk choices this week, but they weren’t. 

Texans over Broncos

The surprising Broncos and Texans are 6-5 and just outside the playoff picture. Whoever wins on Sunday will at least hold an all-important tiebreaker and could also jump up into one of those wild card spots. 

It’s highly likely this battle will come down to the final minutes: Both teams have shown a knack for playing in, and winning, close contests. C.J. Stroud, who leads the NFL with 296.9 passing yards per game, already has two game-winning drives in his rookie season — and almost had a third last week. In that same category, though, Russell Wilson has an NFL-high four.

Despite the tear the Broncos have been on, I’m leaning with Houston at home. Stroud will have to take care of the football, which he did last week against the Jags, because Denver’s defense has thrived off of turnovers in recent weeks. However, I am concerned about the health of his supporting cast. If Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell are all out, I’d be inclined to change my pick before kickoff.

Rams over Browns

The Browns’ injury report is a mile long, but I have no idea who will or won’t suit up on Sunday. If Myles Garrett is out, then this is an easier decision to make. 

Joe Flacco potentially starting a game in 2023 would, theoretically, make that decision that much easier. Then again, he might throw the best ball of anyone else wearing a Browns uniform this season. The Rams are starting to get into a rhythm, though, so I’ll stick with them. Yet nothing about this year’s Browns teams would surprise me.

Eagles over 49ers

The 49ers are favored on the road in their much-anticipated NFC Championship rematch with the Eagles. Though it’s difficult to bet against the Niners with the way they’ve played since their bye, it’s even harder to bet against the Eagles, who keep finding ways to win each week. 

Both sides have plenty of motivation. The 49ers want to prove that they were the better team last postseason and only lost because of their bad QB injury luck. The Eagles want to shut them up for all the excuses they’ve made. I think they’ll be ready — and so will Philly fans.