NFL picks for a stuffed Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving, the most NFL of holidays.

What is, arguably, the most on-brand NFL week of the season is here: 32 teams, 16 games, four days of football, all while we gorge on food and spend too much money on holiday shopping. U-S-A, baby!

Although that might sound like I’m being a little sardonic, I don’t mean it that way. Yes, this time of year can be stressful, overwhelming, and cynically commercialized, but I honestly love it despite how jam-packed our schedules become.

On that note, I’m sending out this newsletter early this week to beat the holiday rush (and because we have three matchups on Thursday and one on Black Friday). My picks for all 16 contests in Week 12 are in bold, along with the odds as of Wednesday afternoon:

Packers at Lions (-7.5)

Commanders at Cowboys (-12.5)

49ers at Seahawks (+7.5)

Dolphins at Jets (+10)

Patriots at Giants (+3.5)

Steelers at Bengals (+1)

Jaguars at Texans (+1.5)

Buccaneers at Colts (-2.5)

Panthers at Titans (-3.5)

Saints at Falcons (-1)

Browns at Broncos (-1.5)

Rams at Cardinals (-1)

Bills at Eagles (-3.5)

Chiefs at Raiders (+8.5)

Ravens at Chargers (+3.5)

Bears at Vikings (-3.5)

Since we all have places to go and people to see, I wanted to keep my picks writeup on the shorter side. As such, I issued myself a challenge: each game preview could only be two sentences long. I had to fight my instincts at times, but I did it!

The Thanksgiving turkey

On paper, the Thursday/Friday lineup this week lacks excitement (sorta like the turkey most of us will be eating all weekend). They’re all rivalry games, but none of them are projected to be very close. 

Lions over Packers

Just days ago, the Lions were almost upset by the Bears — and probably should have been, if Matt Eberflus had played to win rather than not lose. I don’t think they’ll take the Packers, who are also coming off a win, lightly, especially when it’s been seven years since the Lions last won on Thanksgiving Day. 

Cowboys over Commanders 

I will probably be eating Thanksgiving dinner during part of this game, so I might miss a different meal: the Cowboys feasting on Sam Howell. The young Commanders QB leads the NFL in interceptions and sacks taken, two areas where the Dallas defense excels.

49ers over Seahawks

The Seahawks need to bring their A game with the way the 49ers are playing. Geno Smith is dealing with an injury, though, which makes that endeavor all the more unlikely. 

Dolphins over Jets

I think the Jets can slow down the Dolphins’ high-flying offense a little, but I have zero faith in backup-turned-starter Tim Boyle, who has a career 3:9 INT:TD ratio and 50.9 passer rating, to bring much of a spark to the Jets’ offense. The only part of this matchup I’m uncertain about is whether Jalen Ramsey will get a pick-six or just a regular interception.

The Thanksgiving dessert

These are the games that I’m most looking forward to over the weekend, just like how pie is the real highlight of the Thanksgiving meal.

Jaguars over Texans

First place in the AFC South is on the line when these two foes meet for the second time this season. The Texans, winners of three straight, took Round 1, but I think the Jaguars’ experience (and perfect road record) gives them the edge in the rematch.

Browns over Broncos

I never expected to be anticipating this (probably low-scoring) matchup, but 1) I’m always up for watching the Browns’ defense do their thing and 2) the Broncos are tied for the longest winning streak in the NFL! While Denver could win once again by forcing turnovers and doing just enough on offense, I’m going with Cleveland to pull the small upset.

Eagles over Bills

The Bills’ win last week didn’t completely save their season, but it did prove that the old Bills were still in there and capable of beating anyone. That includes the Eagles, though after they rallied to take down the Chiefs on Monday, I’m not inclined to pick against them anytime soon. 

Ravens over Chargers 

The Ravens have brain-farted away all three of their losses this season. The Chargers brain-fart every time they take the field and will figure out a way to do the same on Sunday when they lose by, I’m guessing, three points.

The Thanksgiving nap

All that tryptophan will have you nodding off on the couch. If not, these matchups just might.

Patriots over Giants 

The Giants are fresh off a double-digit win, while the Patriots have the worst record in the AFC and a big question mark at quarterback. Still, I’m not about to trust Tommy DeVito — even if he did make history last week — against a Bill Belichick defense.

Steelers over Bengals 

The Steelers are primed to get the post-firing bump after mercifully parting ways with OC Matt Canada. Not just because they’re free from Canada, but also because the Bengals are now forced to start Jake Browning, the latest faceless Cincy backup in a long line of them (Jeff Driskel, Ryan Finley, Brandon Allen, etc.).

Titans over Panthers

I guess Bryce Young vs. Will Levis is a little interesting, especially because they never got the chance to face off in college despite both playing in the SEC. Otherwise, there is nothing I can pretend is compelling about this matchup.

Chiefs over Raiders 

It feels wrong to put the Chiefs in the same category as Panthers/Titans, but that’s how agonizing it is to see Patrick Mahomes’ receivers repeatedly drop his on-the-money passes. And while the Raiders have at least been competitive post-Josh McDaniels, I would hardly describe them as watchable … unless it’s to count how many times Maxx Crosby touches the opposing quarterback.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Perhaps, to complete the Thanksgiving theme, I should have labeled this part “breaking the wishbone,” but this is the one section I’ve kept the same every week this season, so I decided to keep the regular title.

Colts over Buccaneers

I could have sworn these two teams have already played this year and that the Colts won, but I guess it was simply a false memory. Or maybe I just glimpsed into the future.

Falcons over Saints

As I said two weeks ago, I will stubbornly continue to pick the Falcons until they finally win again. They keep proving me wrong, which has given me a small taste of the constant pain it must feel being a Falcons fan.

Rams over Cardinals

I like the vibes the Cardinals are giving off since Kyler Murray’s return, but he is only 1-6 against the Rams in his career. No matter who wins, I doubt it’ll be as one-sided as their first meeting in LA, which the Rams won 26-9 in Week 6.

Vikings over Bears

The Bears have a better primetime record this season than the Vikings (2-1 vs. 1-2), and their losing NFC North streak, now at 12 games, has to end eventually. Maybe it’ll happen this week after they came so close in Detroit, but I’m not quite ready to predict it.