NFL picks for a deja vu Divisional Round
All of this seems familiar ...
In the first round of this year’s playoffs, there were three upsets, just like they were last year.
The four teams in this year’s AFC Divisional Round are the same four teams as last year, only the second time in NFL history that’s happened.
Three of the four games this weekend are rematches from earlier this season, just like (say it with me now), last year.
We are at least guaranteed of a slightly different Conference Championship Weekend, thanks to the Super Bowl runners-up curse striking the 49ers this season. But we could get three-fourths of last year’s teams in the next round — and not to ruin the surprise, but that’s exactly what I’m predicting.
My picks for the Divisional Round are in bold below, along with the odds from DraftKings:
Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)
Commanders at Lions (-8.5)
Rams at Eagles (-6)
Ravens at Bills (+1.5)
You can also check out Christian’s picks at FTW and find out where we agree and disagree.
Divisional Round picks
Chiefs over Texans
Last week, the Texans were trailing the Chargers 6-0 late in the first half when C.J. Stroud mishandled a snap deep in Houston territory on third down. He snatched the ball, scrambled toward the sideline, and looked destined to take a big hit and set the Texans up for a punt.
Instead, he found an open Xavier Hutchinson for a 34-yard gain. The drive stayed alive and the Texans soon took the lead and never looked back. At the time, I thought, “There’s the C.J. I know.” It was like he reverted to his old form, the quarterback who made plays happen through, seemingly, sheer will.
As much as I want them to keep the momentum going, however, the Texans have to face a well-rested Chiefs team looking to make history with a three-peat. A month ago, Houston kept it somewhat close in Kansas City for most of the afternoon but was just outmanned by a better opponent. I expect a similar result this time around; maybe the Chiefs will be a little rusty at first, but they should win and cover.
Lions over Commanders
The Commanders remind me a bit of last year’s Texans: “oh hey, what a great season you’ve had. Nice to see you get this far!”
And they can hang with good teams but probably aren’t ready to beat the top tier just yet.
Even so, the Commanders can pull the upset if they win the fourth-down battle again, like they did in Tampa a week ago. This time, they’ll be going up against another Coach Dan who hates punting and loves going for it on fourth down, so they can’t just win the fourth-down battle on offense. They’ll have to do it on defense too, which is a lot tricker — an unlikely — against the Lions’ bag-of-tricks offense.
Besides, I’ve been a believer in these Lions all year, and I’m not stopping now. Ask me again next week, though.
Rams over Eagles
Maybe I’m being too easily swayed by the wild card results, but I thought the Eagles had the least impressive win while the Rams had the most impressive win. Even though Philly beat the Packers by double digits, the effort, especially on offense, was rather lackluster. On the other hand, the Rams were a team on a mission against the Vikings.
It’s possible all the stress and emotions from the past two weeks of deadly wildfires and two road trips will catch up to the Rams. I’m not convinced at this point, though. If anything, I think they now have something bigger than themselves to play for: the entire LA community.
Then again, the Rams’ only loss with their starters in the past two months came against the Eagles in Week 12, when Saquon Barkley gutted the defense for 255 yards. I doubt LA will surrender TDs of 70 and 72 yards again to him, however. It’s not that I don’t think Barkley can, but I simply think Sean McVay is too good of a coach to let a one-man show bury his team again.
Ravens over Bills
Ughhhh, this is, hands down, the hardest game to pick of the entire season. There are so many good reasons to take either the Ravens or Bills, who have been playing their best football lately. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen both have an equally good case for MVP. And both teams and quarterbacks will get unfairly maligned if they fall short of the Super Bowl again.
The Ravens won easily when these two met in Baltimore earlier this season, but that was before the Bills had really found their groove. And this time, the game will be in Buffalo.
Of course, the Bills have lost in Buffalo in two consecutive divisional rounds, so perhaps that’s not as big of an edge as it should be, especially against an opponent that’s also used to playing in the cold.
I JUST DON’T KNOW. I’m going with the Ravens based mostly on instinct, and because, well Derrick Henry in December/January is even more of a beast than usual, and the combo of Jackson + Henry is better than Allen + any of his Bills teammates.
Am I confident? Absolutely not. But I’ll be eagerly watching to see who emerges victorious, while simultaneously dreading to find out which quarterback will be wearing a pained expression afterward.