NFL picks for a highly anticipated Conference Championship Weekend
And the two teams playing in Super Bowl LVII will be ...
For 28 NFL teams, the offseason has already begun. You already knew that, but in case you had forgotten, this week’s headlines around the league were a dead giveaway.
We’ve had exhausting quarterback discourse. We’ve had uninspiring coordinator hires, are bracing for a ludicrous head coaching hire, and are still seeing qualified Black coaches being passed over for jobs. We’ve had the absolutely stupidest story about Damar Hamlin, peddled by absolutely stupid grifters and believed by the absolutely stupidest people alive.
So forgive me if I’m not ready to turn my attention to the offseason just yet. Instead, I’d like to focus on the four remaining teams on their quest to Super Bowl LVII.
I have my own preference for which matchup I’d like to see in two weeks, though I don’t think any of the four possibilities are a bad choice. Here’s how I would rank the four potential Super Bowl clashes:
1. Bengals vs. 49ers: The Bengals have never won a Super Bowl, while the 49ers haven’t done so in 28 years. And like Top Gun: Maverick, this will also be a long-awaited follow up to a smash from the ‘80s; the Bengals and 49ers battled in two close Super Bowls twice that decade, with San Francisco coming out on top both times.
2. Bengals vs. Eagles: Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts would meet as starters for the first time since LSU blew out OU in the College Football Playoff. That renewed QB rivalry would be on everyone’s minds, including the many TikTokers who have the hots for Burrow and Hurts.
3. Chiefs vs. Eagles: The Andy Reid Bowl!
4. Chiefs vs. 49ers: These two already played once this year (a Chiefs blowout win) and just faced off in the Super Bowl three years ago (a comeback Chiefs win).
To be honest, I think those are all almost equally likely to happen! Both games on tap for Conference Championship Weekend are essentially coin flips in my mind and per Vegas as well. Christian has his picks up at FTW, and after debating myself all week long, I’ve made my picks below.
NFC Championship: 49ers at Eagles
The two most balanced teams in the NFC will square off in Philadelphia on Sunday for what will be a strength-on-strength showdown:
It should also look quite different from their last matchup, which came in Week 2 of the 2021 season. That was only Nick Sirianni’s second game as a head coach and Jalen Hurts’ sixth ever start. The Eagles didn’t have A.J. Brown or C.J. Gardner-Johnson then, while this was before Christian McCaffrey’s and Brock Purdy’s time with the Niners. Something that didn’t change much, however, is the Eagles’ starting OL. Most of the same faces are there, and they’ll have to face Nick Bosa, who had two sacks last time, once again.
Key concern for the Eagles: How their run defense holds up
If the Eagles have a weakness, it’s their rush defense, which ranks just 21st in DVOA. In last week’s rout over the Giants, Philly grabbed a 14-0 lead early on and then a 28-0 lead at halftime. As a result, Saquon Barkley only carried the ball six times after NY’s first drive of the game.
The 49ers will not abandon the run, not with weapons like McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and Kyle Juszczyk. The Cowboys, who had a much better run defense than the Eagles this season, didn’t make it easy on San Francisco's running game, but the RBs still came through when needed. On the Niners’ go-ahead touchdown drive in the second half, McCaffrey, Mitchell, and Juszczyk combined for seven carries, 38 rushing yards, and converted four first downs (including the TD).
In all three of the Eagles’ losses this year, their opponent outrushed them and won the time-of-possession battle. Jalen Hurts only played in one of those losses, in Week 10 against the Commanders, and the 49ers should follow their blueprint: chew up the clock to keep the ball out of Hurts’ hands, and create turnovers (which SF’s defense does at a high rate). The Niners have also proven, time and again during their 12-game winning streak, that they can wear opponents down and take over in the second half.
But all hope is not lost for Philadelphia’s run defense. McCaffrey and Mitchell have been on the injury report this week. Even though both will almost assuredly play, what if they’re not as effective due to their injuries? Maybe then the Eagles can finally be the defense that makes Purdy — in the toughest environment he’ll have ever played in — try to beat them. The Cowboys came relatively close to doing so last week, but too many mistakes, particularly on offense, doomed them. The Eagles are better and don’t make many mistakes. Besides, history is not in Purdy’s favor:
Key concern for the 49ers: How well their defense contains Jalen Hurts
After missing two games due to a shoulder injury, Hurts returned to the lineup in the final week of the regular season. He was a little rusty against the Giants, though the Eagles weren’t trying to show all their cards then. Two weeks of rest later, Hurts faced the Giants once again and looked more like his MVP finalist self. In the first quarter, he went 7 of 7 for 89 yards, two touchdowns, and completed his longest pass of the night, this 40-yard bomb to DeVonta Smith:
The Eagles had the game wrapped up early, and Hurts wasn’t asked to do much after that. He finished with an efficient, but not eye-popping, stat line: 16 of 24 for 154 yards, and two touchdowns with nine carries for 34 yards and another score.
The 49ers are not the Giants. San Francisco’s defense is the best in the league and Hurts’ shoulder probably isn’t 100 percent. Yet, the 49ers haven’t faced a truly mobile quarterback since before their win streak started — and they lost, in back-to-back weeks, to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and Marcus Mariota and the Falcons.
Those two quarterbacks were able to buy time with their legs and take advantage of the Niners’ struggles with deep passes. Hurts can do the same, especially with the No. 1 OL in the league protecting him and giving Smith and A.J. Brown a chance to get open downfield.
If Hurts’ shoulder hampers him, either as a passer or as a rusher, then it might not matter that SF’s secondary is vulnerable to explosive plays. The Eagles need Hurts to be in top form, or else those potential big gains won’t come often against this otherwise stingy defense.
My pick: 49ers. I have changed my mind so often about this matchup that I’ve lost track on which team was my original pick. Right now, I’m settling on the Niners for two reasons: 1) I’m still worried about Hurts’ shoulder and 2) Kyle Shanahan’s experience in these championship games. I think he can scheme up ways to continue to not put Purdy in tough situations, while DC DeMeco Ryans can adjust as needed to keep Hurts from getting too comfortable.
But I’ll probably change my pick, at least in my head, about 50 more times before kickoff.
AFC Championship: Bengals at Chiefs
Despite these two teams playing for the fourth time in just over a year, the anticipation is high for this rematch of last year’s AFC title game. The trash talk between both teams (and politicians) has been ramping up heading into Sunday in what is expected to be, based on the back-and-forth nature of the line, another thriller.
Key concern for the Chiefs: How Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury affects him
Patrick Mahomes wasn’t quite himself last week when he returned in the second half after getting injured. His taped-up right ankle hindered his ability to move outside the pocket as usual; Mahomes scrambled just once in the second half, for a 4-yard gain.
He was still able to buy time occasionally, though, like on a crucial touchdown drive in the fourth quarter:
While his numbers after sustaining the high ankle sprain were fine (10 of 15 for 111 yards), he didn’t quite have the touch on his deeper passes (he completed just two 16+ yard throws).
Mahomes has looked OK moving around this week, but practice is much different from game action — particularly against a defense that has managed to rein him in before. In Kansas City’s three previous matchups against Cincinnati, Mahomes has put up decent but not otherworldly numbers: 67.3 completion percentage, 757 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 101 passer rating.
But where DC Lou Anarumo’s unit really shined, and where it has most of this season, is making those second-half adjustments. So far in the playoffs, the Bengals have allowed just 10 points in the second half and zero in the fourth quarter. The Bills had the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL this regular season (after the Chiefs) and were held to three points in the second half last week in part due to Anarumo finding a variety of ways to attack Josh Allen.
Anarumo deployed different looks at Mahomes last postseason, then switched it up when the two teams met this past December. If his defense can continue to confuse a limited Mahomes — who may also be struggling to plant his foot on his bum ankle — then the Bengals could be making a second straight trip to the Super Bowl.
Key concern for the Bengals: How the OL protects Burrow
A shaky offensive line has been a common theme in Joe Burrow’s career so far. This year, though, injuries are to blame. Last week, the Bengals were without Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams, in addition to the already-out La’el Collins, and will be without them again this week.
The reshuffled OL protected Burrow well against the Bills and paved the way for Cincy’s 172-yard rushing day. The results — one sack surrendered, one rushing TD, 150+ yards on the ground — were similar to the Bengals’ numbers against the Chiefs in Week 13. But the Chiefs have a much higher adjusted sack rate than the Bills: third in the league, behind the Eagles and Cowboys. And it’s highly unlikely Kansas City will use the same game plan against Burrow as it did last month, especially considering Burrow has often made the defense pay when it’s chosen to blitz.
Defensive Player of the Year finalist Chris Jones and the rest of the DL has the talent advantage over a banged-up Cincinnati OL, though, and KC’s secondary has been playing better lately. If the defense throws some disguised coverage at Burrow and disrupts him, then maybe it can prevent him from getting into a rhythm and, perhaps more importantly, force him to make mistakes.
Burrow has been nearly flawless against the Chiefs:
And yet, each game was decided by just three points. It would only take one blunder, or a little extra effort from the Kansas City defense, to change the Chiefs’ fortune against the Bengals.
My pick: Bengals. I think it’s really hard for the same opponent, even one as good as the Bengals, to beat a team as good as the Chiefs four times in 13 months. If I felt more certain about Mahomes’ health, then I’d probably take Kansas City. But with Mahomes’ mobility a question mark, and Travis Kelce now added to the injury report, I’m putting my faith in Burrow.