An offense-only 2024 NFL mock draft
What if every team *had* to use its first pick on an offensive player?
In my last newsletter, I singled out one offensive position each team should target in the upcoming draft. If you read the intro rather than just skimmed it — I’m not judging! — you might recall that I promised to follow up soon with the defensive version of that same idea.
That will have to wait until later this week, though. First, I wanted to stay in offense mode and create a mock draft that completely excluded defensive players. That’s right: an offense-only mock draft.
There are two reasons I decided to put this together. We could see a record number of offensive players drafted in the first round this year, and I think it’s fun to do one non-traditional mock draft each April.
Before we get started, I’ll go over a few other details:
I did not project any trades, even though we should expect them early and often in the real draft.
I based some of my decisions off of position rankings from nine different outlets, including Christian at FTW, Nate Tice at Yahoo, Dane Brugler at The Athletic, Danny Kelly at the Ringer, Daniel Jeremiah at NFL Network, Mel Kiper at ESPN, and the staffs at PFF, Bleacher Report, and CBS Sports.
For the teams that don’t have a first-round pick, I used this free mock draft simulator I found to figure out which offensive prospects might still be available when those teams are first set to pick.
And please remember, I’m not making predictions here. In reality, there will be defensive players drafted in the first round!
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams is the near-consensus QB1 of this draft class, and the Bears learned from past mistakes and will give him a strong supporting cast from the get-go.
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
I honestly have no idea which way the Commanders are leaning with this pick. Not everyone is on board the Maye Train, but enough analysts really like him that I’ll slot him to Washington.
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I don’t know what the Patriots will do with the No. 3 pick. I know they need a quarterback, and Daniels can succeed in the right system. New England shouldn’t start him yet, though, without major upgrades to the rest of the offense.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Currently, the Cardinals’ top receivers on the roster are Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, both of whom I like well enough … but they are not No. 1 receivers. MHJ is that and more — he can be the Cardinals’ new Larry Fitzgerald.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Like the Cardinals, the Chargers’ WR depth chart at the moment is in rough shape. Nabers and his big-play ability can change that in a hurry.
6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
I wouldn’t completely rule out the Giants taking a QB, but I think they’ll give Daniel Jones another season to prove that he can stay healthy and replicate his first year under Brian Daboll. The best way to help Jones is to give him an explosive WR1 like Odunze.
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans are in luck: They’re in position to land the top-rated tackle in this class, thus filling their biggest need in the draft.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
In real life, I believe the Falcons will select a defensive player in the first round, but if they were forced to take an offensive prospect, they could go a few different ways with this pick (QB, OL, WR). While Thomas Jr. could be drafted anywhere from the top 10 to late in the first round, he has the potential, especially with an experienced QB like Kirk Cousins, to develop into a major weapon.
9. Chicago Bears: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
I think the Bears might have their eye on a WR if the top four prospects weren’t already off the board. Since they are, I’m projecting a reunion between Williams and Fashanu, who were high school teammates.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
It’s risky to draft a tight end this high, but Bowers could quickly become Aaron Rodgers’ second-favorite target after Garrett Wilson.
11. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I’ve seen several evaluators compare McCarthy to Cousins, so it’d be somewhat appropriate if he ended up as Cousins’ successor. There are legitimate concerns about McCarthy’s game, but he’d at least be set up nicely in Minnesota.
12. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
I think this is too high for Nix, but I also don’t think the Broncos can afford to wait for a quarterback with only Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci on the roster. Plus, Nix with Sean Payton could be a good match.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
I’m not dismissing the possibility of the Raiders taking a chance on Michael Penix Jr. here, though I’m leaning toward them waiting until later to nab a quarterback. In that case, they need to upgrade their OL, and Fuaga is capable of playing both right tackle (where there’s an opening) and guard.
14. New Orleans Saints: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
With Ryan Ramczyk’s NFL future in the air, the Saints need to start planning for life without their All-Pro right tackle. Here comes Latham, who earned first-team All-SEC honors at RT last season and did not miss a game in his Alabama career.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
I don’t envision the Colts actually drafting a wide receiver in the first round, but it’s not out of the question either because they need to surround Anthony Richardson with more weapons. Mitchell would immediately be the most athletic receiver on the team.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
The Seahawks can get much-need OL depth from an in-state product. While Fautanu played all last season at LT for the nation’s top-ranked offensive line, Brugler said that the versatile lineman “offers legitimate five-position potential” in the NFL.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Thomas Jr. has been frequently mocked to the Jaguars. Since he’s off the table, as are any defensive prospects, I think Jacksonville would turn to plan B at receiver, which could be any number of guys. Based on the position rankings that I’ve tracked, McConkey averages out to the sixth-best receiver in this class — and he already has a connection to a couple of Jags.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Although the Bengals would be the sixth team taking an offensive lineman at this point, they’d still end up with the high-upside Mims. The 340-pounder doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he doesn’t need to start right away and can be a future fixture at either right or left tackle.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
My first curveball! The Rams wouldn’t draft Penix in the first round in the real world, yet I’ve seen one recent mock draft project him to LA in the second round. It makes sense: Matthew Stafford is 36 and sometimes injured, and his backup is 32-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo who is often injured. Penix comes with his own injury risks, but in this scenario, the Rams — who don’t have major holes to fill on offense — decide not to wait around on a QB who likely wouldn’t fall to them on Day 2.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Despite lining up at left tackle for the last three seasons, Barton is expected to play center in the NFL. That’s the biggest weakness on the Steelers’ OL right now, and even if they like their in-house options, Barton’s ability to play multiple positions along the line gives him the edge over more experienced centers in this draft.
21. Miami Dolphins: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Dolphins don’t have an immediate need at tackle, with LT Terron Armstead and RT Austin Jackson both returning. But Armstead is almost 33 and has missed 11 games in the last two seasons. Guyton, who is talented but a bit raw, could be a good bet for the future, whether he takes over for Armstead or Jackson moves over and Guyton mans the right side.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
Like the Dolphins, the Eagles don’t necessarily need a day one starter along their OL. But they could use versatility, which Morgan brings to the table. He played tackle throughout college, meaning he could be tabbed to be Lane Johnson’s eventual replacement. However, his best position in the NFL could be inside, and Philly does have a question mark at right guard.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
The Vikings still have center Garrett Bradbury under contract, but his starting job isn’t guaranteed after underwhelming play. Powers-Johnson could come in and start right away at center, and he also has the tools to move to guard.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Thanks in part to the flexibility of current left guard Tyler Smith, the Cowboys have the luxury of taking the best offensive lineman available, regardless of position. Based on various rankings, that would be the athletic-but-raw Suamataia, who is probably a Day 2 pick in real life.
25. Green Bay Packers: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
The Packers could either select an offensive lineman before even the guys with Round 2 grades are gone, or they could switch gears and grab a guy who would fit their offense. I have them doing the latter with Coleman, who is in that big-bodied receiver mold that Green Bay usually likes.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
In this mock, the Bucs probably can’t wait until the second round to snag Frazier like in the real draft. Regardless, he can slide into the starting center spot immediately following Ryan Jensen’s retirement.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
While I don’t actually believe the Cardinals will double up on receivers in the first round, it makes sense to surround Kyler Murray with more talent. Worthy is much smaller and less polished than MHJ, but he’s incredibly fast and electric with the ball in his hands.
28. Buffalo Bills: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Most mock drafts project that the Bills will target a receiver in the first round after they traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans. If they decided to hold off until Day 2, then they could come away with Franklin. In this mock, of course, they’d have to act more quickly in order to land the speedy deep threat.
29. Detroit Lions: Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
The way this draft is unfolding, the Lions should also try to snap up a receiver instead of waiting. Similar to the Bills, I have them ending up with a receiver who could be there for them on Day 2 of the actual draft. Wilson has steady hands and wouldn’t require much time to develop a rapport with Jared Goff.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Cooper Beebe, OL, Kansas State
The Ravens need OL reinforcements and are running out of realistic options for this high in the draft. Luckily for them, Beebe isn’t just the top-rated lineman remaining. He’s also a near-ideal match for Baltimore’s scheme.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Christian Haynes, OL, UConn
The 49ers find themselves in the same situation as the Ravens: drafting a much-needed offensive lineman a day earlier than he’s expected to be taken. And like the Ravens, the Niners should still be happy with this pick. Haynes, who played 51 games at right guard in college, would be an upgrade over 32-year-old vet Jon Feliciano.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
Draftniks are split on whether the Chiefs will go with an offensive lineman or receiver in the first round. Personally, I think they should go with the former. At this point in my mock, though, there are more higher-quality WRs than OL who are still up for grabs. Legette is a work in progress, but he’s strong and, perhaps most importantly for Patrick Mahomes, rarely drops the ball. He can also help out in the return game from the jump.
Teams without a first-round pick
33. Carolina Panthers: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
Bryce Young doesn’t just need better receivers. He needs receivers he can trust. Pearsall might not be a WR1, but he has requisite skills to become Young’s Mr. Reliable.
42. Houston Texans: Dominick Puni, OL, Kansas
The Texans took care of most of their biggest offensive needs in free agency. However, they could still stand to add more depth along their OL. Even if he’s not a starter as a rookie, Puni could develop into one — and, as a bonus, he can line up at guard, center, or tackle.
54. Cleveland Browns: Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
As I wrote in my previous newsletter, the Browns’ offensive priority in this draft should be about adding depth, regardless of position. After a ton of offensive linemen and receivers have been snatched up, I have them instead going with a running back, a position that has hardly heard its name called yet (Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks have already been drafted in my simulation). Corum, a workhorse who has a penchant for finding the end zone, would provide insurance as Nick Chubb tries to bounce back from his major knee injury.