What if the NFL had its own in-season tournament?
Here's what it could look like, if the NFL chose to follow the NBA's lead.
Recently, the NBA announced its first ever in-season tournament, set to tip off in less than four months. If you’re a soccer fan, you’re familiar with this concept. If not, then you might want to check out what the NBA’s version entails.
I doubt the NFL will ever go down this path because of the logistics and the threat that it could dilute the importance of the Super Bowl. (Then again, the NFL has never turned down an opportunity to make money.)
While I don’t think the NFL will ever create its own in-season tournament, I can’t help but picture it. So, inspired by the NBA, I laid out what the format could look like and who, had it been in place last season, might have been crowned early-season champions.
The teams
The NBA opted to keep the same number of teams in each tournament group as it has in each division: five teams per division, three divisions per conference.
The NFL would likely follow that same blueprint: four teams per division, four divisions per conference. The question is how it would sort those teams. It could randomize them, choose to arrange them based on their records from the season prior, or adopt the NBA’s method of doing both.
Let’s say that, once again, the NFL takes the NBA’s lead. In this case, the four best teams from one conference — as decided by the previous year’s final regular season standings — would each be separated into four groups. Then, the next four best teams would be randomly selected into those groups, then the next four, then the final four.
One issue with this approach is that a certain group could wind up with three (or even four) franchises from the same regular division. If the NFL wanted to avoid this outcome, it could create a rule that requires a redraw if more than two teams from the same division find themselves in the same group.
I decided to go that route, and these are the eight groups — four in the AFC, four in the NFC — that I ended up with for a hypothetical 2023 in-season tournament:
AFC
Group A
1. Chiefs
2. Ravens
3. Browns
4. Broncos
Group B
1. Jaguars
2. Dolphins
3. Patriots
4. Colts
Group C
1. Bengals
2. Chargers
3. Titans
4. Texans
Group D
1. Bills
2. Steelers
3. Jets
4. Raiders
NFC
Group E
1. Vikings
2. Cowboys
3. Panthers
4. Bears
Group F
1. Eagles
2. Seahawks
3. Packers
4. Rams
Group G
1. Bucs
2. Lions
3. Saints
4. Cardinals
Group H
1. 49ers
2. Giants
3. Commanders
4. Falcons
The schedule
The NBA’s tournament will begin a couple weeks into the new season, and group play is spread throughout the month of November. Teams will play the four opponents in their group on “tournament nights,” until the knockout rounds, which take place in early December.
The NFL would have one major snag with a similar system: bye weeks. The only times all 32 teams play this season are Weeks 1-4, Week 8, Week 12 (Thanksgiving week), and Weeks 15-18. In theory, the first portion could be scheduled during the first month of the season, followed by the semifinals in Week 8, and the championship in Week 12. But I think the league would prefer for Thanksgiving — the NFL’s holiday — to remain sacred. And the final month of the season should be reserved for playoff pushes.
So I propose a slight tweak to the NFL’s schedule. Instead of bye weeks starting in Week 5, I’d move them to Week 7 and later. Then, the first six weeks of the season would be entirely devoted to this tournament.
Group play
Week 1: 1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 4 in each group
Week 2: 1 vs. 3, 2 vs. 4 in each group
Week 3: 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3 in each group
Knockout rounds
Week 4: Group A vs. Group B; Group C vs. Group D; Group E vs. Group F; Group G vs. Group H (first-place teams play each other, as do the second-, third-, and fourth-place teams)
Week 5: Group A-B winner vs. Group C-D winner; Group E-F winner vs. Group G-H (other teams within those groups face off according to records)
Championship
Week 6: Winner of AFC vs. Winner of NFC (everyone else plays their correspondingly ranked team in the other conference, so No. 2 in the AFC vs. No. 2 in the NFC, etc)
The tiebreakers
The NBA’s tiebreaker procedure in group play starts with the obvious (head-to-head results) and then moves down to point differential, total points scored, regular season record from the year before, and a random drawing.
The NFL’s tiebreaker in this tournament would likely look similar to its normal process, just without the ones that wouldn’t apply here, like conference record, strength of schedule, and strength of victory.
But what if three teams in the same group went 2-1, while the fourth went 0-3? Which of the three would advance?
Here’s how I picture the tiebreakers working in group play:
1. Head-to-head results
2. Best point differential
3. Most points scored
4. Most touchdowns scored
5. Coin toss
OK, so how might the tournament actually play out?
Without the ability to see into the future, I can only guess who will look like the best teams in the NFL during the first six weeks of the 2023 regular season.
Instead, I’m going to look backward and try to assess how an in-season tournament could have played out last year. First, I needed to randomize the teams according to the final standings of the 2021 regular season. Then, based on records and power rankings through Week 6 of the 2022 season, I picked who emerged as the winner from each group.
Let’s start with the AFC.
2022 AFC Group Play
Group A
1. Chiefs
2. Raiders
3. Dolphins
4. Texans
Winner: Chiefs. The Dolphins may have given them a run for their money, depending on if Tua Tagovailoa was injured in this timeline. But when in doubt, go with Patrick Mahomes.
Group B
1. Titans
2. Patriots
3. Browns
4. Broncos
Winner: Titans? Eh, it’d either be the Titans or Patriots, and neither is an inspiring choice. New England beat Tennessee in the 2021 season, but Derrick Henry was injured and didn’t play. However, he was healthy (and productive) at the beginning of the 2022 season, so I’ll give Henry and the Titans the nod.
Group C
1. Bengals
2. Steelers
3. Chargers
4. Jaguars
Winner: Bengals. Though the Bengals stumbled early last year (all in close losses), they seemed to suffer from bad luck more than anything. And even if the Chargers, at least, proved to be stiff competition — remember, the Jags didn’t start jelling until late in the season — if it comes down to who has the worst luck, then the Chargers win that contest every time. And, thus, lose in group play.
Group D
1. Bills
2. Colts
3. Ravens
4. Jets
Winner: Bills. They looked like the team to beat in the AFC through the first six weeks of the season, but then the injuries, such as Josh Allen’s elbow strain, started to mount.
2022 AFC Knockout Rounds
Week 4
Chiefs vs. Titans: In the real 2022 season, the Chiefs needed OT to beat the Ryan Tannehill-less Titans in Week 9, so I don’t think it’s safe to assume KC would skate to the next round. But I’ll repeat what I wrote a few paragraphs above: when in doubt, go with Patrick Mahomes.
Winner: Chiefs
Bengals vs. Bills: This one is tricky! The Bengals topped the Bills in the playoffs, and looked like the stronger team when they briefly met late in the season, before Damar Hamlin’s terrifying injury. But in the first month of last season, the Bills were playing better football than the Bengals.
Winner: Bills
Week 5
Chiefs vs. Bills: Hey, we saw this exact matchup in Week 6 last year. Maybe, when the stakes are slightly higher, the Chiefs would’ve stepped up and found a way to win. I’m sticking with what the actual result was, though.
Winner: Bills, who advance to the championship round
Now it’s the NFC’s turn.
2022 NFC Group Play
Group E
1. Bucs
2. Eagles
3. Commanders
4. Panthers
Winner: Eagles, who didn’t lose until Week 10 last year.
Group F
1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Seahawks
4. Giants
Winner: Cowboys? I don’t feel super confident in this group, consisting of teams that all ended up in the playoffs. All four were a bit helter-skelter at the start of the 2022 season. The Giants had the best record of this group through Week 6, but their one loss came to the Cowboys, who only seem to melt down against the Niners in the actual playoffs.
Group G
1. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. Vikings
4. Bears
Winner: Vikings. Though even in this timeline, the Vikings are fated to be a paper tiger.
Group H
1. Packers
2. Saints
3. Falcons
4. Lions
Winner: Packers? Oh gosh, all of these teams were not impressive at the start of last season, and only the Lions could be considered “not bad” at the end of the season. At this point, however, Detroit hadn’t even sniffed its potential, so I can’t pick the Lions in this scenario, even if they did go 2-0 against the Packers in 2022 (both matchups came in the second half).
2022 NFC Knockout Rounds
Week 4
Eagles vs. Cowboys: Unfortunately, we never got to watch Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott last year because Prescott was injured the first time around and Hurts was, uh, hurt the second time around. Regardless, both Cowboys-Eagles games were battles in 2022, with Philly coming out on top in their Week 6 contest. I can’t say whether Prescott would have played or not in this alternate universe, but either way, I’m taking the Eagles in this imagined Week 4 contest.
Winner: Eagles
Vikings vs. Packers: Another rivalry game — and we saw what happened when they met in Week 1 in 2022.
Winner: Vikings
Week 5
Eagles vs. Vikings: The Vikings’ good fortune runs out against Philadelphia, just as it has every time they’ve gone head-to-head in the postseason.
Winner: Eagles
Championship Round
Eagles vs. Bills: As great as the Bills were in the first half of last season, the Eagles were the most consistent team throughout the regular season. They came up just short in the Super Bowl, but I think they would’ve claimed this in-season tournament title. And Buffalo would, once again, finish as the runner-up in a championship game.
Winner: Eagles
The NFL would’ve salivated over this one — and the TV ratings it’d produce. Alas, it’s all hypothetical. Luckily, we will get to watch the Eagles and Bills square off for real in Week 12 of this season.