1 major question for each new NFL head coach
1 major question for each new NFL head coach
The 2023 season will welcome five new coaches, each with a different item at the top of his agenda.
As of last week, the NFL’s head coaching carousel has come to a stop. Probably for good this offseason, but you never know. After all, Bruce Arians decided to retire last March, long after the other nine openings had been filled.
Only half as many head coaching jobs were available this year. Last year, I looked at the biggest question each hire was facing in his first season — it took two separate newsletters, because again, it was a busy coaching cycle.
I decided to revisit that same format this year, but with only five positions up for grabs, I was able to do it all in one newsletter. So let’s check out one challenge each new head coach will be facing in year one.
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon
Previous job: Eagles defensive coordinator
No. 1 question: Is he up for the task?
Jonathan Gannon, despite just turning 40, has more than 15 years of experience in the NFL. Two years ago, he earned his most prominent gig when Nick Sirianni brought him along to Philadelphia to be the new defensive coordinator.
In Gannon’s two seasons as the DC, the Eagles ranked in the top 10 in total defense. This past season, Gannon’s unit had a major turnaround in a couple areas, jumping from No. 25 to No. 6 in DVOA and from No. 31 in sacks (29) to No. 1 (with 70!).
As good as Philly’s defense was for most of the season, Gannon got pantsed in front of 113 million viewers in the second half of the Super Bowl when the Chiefs scored on all four of their possessions after halftime for the comeback win. Still, I’m not sure how fair it is to judge Gannon based solely on his defense being unable to stop a generational quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and his future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid.
The Cardinals weren’t turned off by the performance, hiring Gannon just days after the Super Bowl — and after Brian Flores said he turned them down for another interview. Did Flores really see the Minnesota DC job as his best opportunity for growth, or did he not want to inherit the mess that he’d have to deal with in Arizona?
Gannon will have his hands full in his first head coaching job. Quarterback Kyler Murray, who reportedly had issues with former coach Kliff Kingsbury, will be out for the start of the season while he recovers from a torn ACL. Veteran players like J.J. Watt and A.J. Green have retired, and Rodney Hudson could be next. No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins is on the trade block.
The Cardinals will probably not be very good in 2023 as the team undergoes roster turnover and ushers in a first-time head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and general manager. Our first Kendall Roy-esque glimpse of Gannon doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he’s up for the challenge:
Then again, Sirianni gave off a bad first impression in his Eagles introductory presser. And remember Dan Campbell’s kneecap-biting speech (as if you could forget)? Yeah, those hires have turned out just fine.
Maybe Gannon will be too. It just might take a while for us to know for sure as Arizona goes through its mini-rebuild.
Carolina Panthers: Frank Reich
Previous job: Colts head coach
No. 1 question: Can he bring stability to the QB position?
The circumstances surrounding Frank Reich’s hiring were a little unsavory, though none of that was Reich’s fault. Steve Wilks had an impressive stint as the interim head coach in Carolina but was passed over for the full-time job.
Since then, Wilks landed the defensive coordinator gig with the 49ers and Reich has assembled a fascinating staff:
Reich arguably didn’t get a fair shake in Indianapolis, where he was fired halfway through his fifth season with a 40-33-1 record. If there were any doubts that Reich had made the most of what he had, those were erased when the Colts proved to be a disaster in the mercifully short Jeff Saturday era.
The Colts’ biggest issue in Reich’s tenure was the helter-skelter nature of the quarterback position, which is a similar situation that Reich finds himself in with the Panthers. Indy made the playoffs twice in Reich’s time, both years when the Colts had the most consistency at QB (Andrew Luck’s final season, Philip Rivers’ final season). In those three other seasons, Reich had to cycle through struggling QBs like Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, and Sam Ehlinger.
That sounds a lot like the Panthers’ ineffective QB carousel of the past few years with Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield. While both the Panthers and Colts will be looking to overhaul the position this offseason, Indianapolis has the better draft spot (No. 4 vs. No. 9). It’s highly possible that if Carolina wants to draft a top-tier passer this season, it’ll have to trade up … or settle on a high-risk, high-reward prospect like Anthony Richardson.
Reich has had success with quarterbacks before — most notably in Philly in 2017, when he guided Wentz to an MVP-type season and then Nick Foles to a Super Bowl MVP. He’ll need to tap into that same power again if the Panthers, and Reich himself, are going to break out of their QB funk.
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton
Previous job: Saints head coach (and Fox studio analyst)
No. 1 question: Can he get Russell Wilson back on track?
One year ago, before Russell Wilson was traded to Denver, I asked if Nathaniel Hackett was the answer to the Broncos’ offensive woes. He was not.
Now the task falls to longtime coach Sean Payton, after a year away from the sideline, to patch up both the offense and Wilson. Payton was apparently not Denver’s first choice, but based on his history, he might be the man to do what first-time coaches Vance Joseph, Vic Fangio, and Hackett couldn’t do before him.
The Broncos haven’t ranked in the top 10 in any major offensive category — points, total yards, DVOA — since 2014, Peyton Manning’s final productive year in the NFL (they won the Super Bowl the next after in his last season). They’ve gone through 12 starting quarterbacks in that span as well. Wilson was supposed to be the one who broke the post-Manning curse. Instead, he trudged through his worst season yet the lowest completion percentage, TD total, adjusted yards/pass, passer rating, and QBR of his career, all while taking the most sacks in the NFL.
Denver finished as the lowest-scoring offense in the league, once again wasting the efforts of a strong defense.
Fortunately, Payton’s offenses are known for putting up points. Only once in his 15 seasons in New Orleans did the Saints not rank in the top 12 in scoring: 2021, his final season, when an injury to Jameis Winston forced them to turn to Trevor Siemian, Ian Book, and Taysom Hill as starters. New Orleans still finished 9-8.
It’s fair to wonder if Wilson can even return to his earlier MVP-like days, though he did flash a bit at the end of the season once Hackett was fired. I think Payton is clever enough as a playcaller to put Wilson in schemes that will maximize his potential, especially if he can revitalize the run game:
Wilson might not be the guy who throws for 4,200 yards and 40 touchdowns again, as he did in 2020. But that same year, Payton got 245.2 yards per game and 24 touchdowns (in 12 appearances) out of a washed up Drew Brees — both numbers better than what Wilson put up this season. For the sake of everyone in Denver — including the front office that gave up a combined three first-round picks for Wilson and Payton — maybe Payton can work his magic once again. At the very least, he should bring some much-needed discipline into the locker room.
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans
Previous job: 49ers defensive coordinator
No. 1 question: Can he fix the defense?
For the third coaching cycle in a row, the Texans are the only franchise in the NFL that hired a Black head coach (not counting the Bucs promoting Todd Bowles in late March when Arians stepped down). Presumably, Ryans will get longer than one year to prove himself because unlike David Culley and Lovie Smith before him, Ryans is not a stopgap solution. He is (hopefully) walking into a more functional building than his predecessors, one that no longer has Jack Easterby around to screw things up.
He is also a former Texans captain, which would’ve immediately made him a popular hire no matter what:
But Ryans has more than his history with Houston going for him. He has been a rising star in the coaching ranks the past few seasons after joining the San Francisco staff. In his two seasons as the DC, the 49ers ranked in the top 10 in points surrendered, total yards AND yards/play allowed, and DVOA. That’s the kind of aggressiveness the Texans could use after ranking near the bottom in all of those categories the last several years. In fact, last season Houston’s run defense — Ryans’ calling call — was the worst the NFL has seen since the 2008 Lions.
For most of the previous decade, including Ryans’ final season there in 2011, Houston’s defense was consistently one of the NFL’s best. Ryans has shown that he can coach up his guys and get them to play for each other. As one anonymous executive who praised the hire told The Athletic, “He is a leader, motivator and can maximize his players.”
Of course, that’s a little easier to do when your players are Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Even if the Texans have a few young defenders to build around — Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, Christian Harris — this will be a long-term project for Ryans, one that won’t be solved in just one offseason. Still, Houston’s defense will almost assuredly be better in 2023, and that should help whichever rookie quarterback the team drafts this April.
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen
Previous job: Eagles offensive coordinator
No. 1 question: Can he fix the offense?
Like their AFC South rivals in Houston, the Colts are coming off an offensively challenged season armed with a top-five draft pick and in dire need of a quarterback. Unlike the Texans, the Colts chose to hire a new head coach with a background in offense, and one who never played for the team … though he does kinda look like he could be Andrew Luck’s older brother:
Shane Steichen, at 37, is the youngest coach hired this offseason, but he has the type of experience the Colts are looking for: He’s worked with quarterbacks fresh out of college. Steichen was the offensive coordinator with the Chargers in 2020 during Justin Herbert’s Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign and then took the same job with the Eagles the next two seasons as Jalen Hurts developed into a bona fide star.
Whether they trade up to No. 1 or stay at No. 4, the Colts will draft a quarterback whom Steichen will be expected to help develop. Just as he did in LA and Philly, Steichen will also be expected to put his QB in position to succeed. Herbert and Hurts are two different types of quarterback, and Steichen built the schemes around them, not the other way around.
That’s the good news for Bryce Young/C.J. Stroud/whoever. The bad news is that, at least right now, the Colts are lacking a true No. 1 receiver in the vein of A.J. Brown and Keenan Allen, and a stout offensive line like the Eagles boasted. However, they do have running back Jonathan Taylor, and if he stays healthy, the ground game should be able to rebound under Steichen.
The Indianapolis offense ranked dead last in the NFL in DVOA this past season, and even with a rookie coach-quarterback duo, the unit should see some improvement in 2023 with Jeff Saturday back at ESPN where he belongs. That said, it might take some time for Steichen, his QB, and the rest of the offense to adjust to their new circumstances.
The hope is that the Colts made the right choice at head coach and will soon make the right choice at QB. And when I say “the Colts,” I mean this guy:
Godspeed, Indy.