NFL Divisional Round: Deja vu
This weekend had a distinct Groundhog Day vibe to it.
I used to watch TV reruns all the time. Sometimes I would rewatch favorite episodes, both as a source of comfort and also because I used to get a little obsessive with certain shows in the way that teenage girls get SUPER into something and then feel a bit embarrassed about it years later. Plus, in the pre-streaming days, it was the only way to catch up with a series that you missed the first time around.
I almost never rewatch TV shows anymore. There are simply too many viewing options now, and I hardly ever make a dent in my never-ending list of shows/movies to get to one day.
Well, I got sucked into watching reruns this weekend, in a sense: all four Divisional Round games felt overly familiar, and they gave us three of the same four teams that advanced to last year’s Conference Championship Round.
The good news is that next weekend’s round should be more spirited than this past week. The Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, and 49ers were arguably the four best teams all season, and I have high hopes they can produce quality content next Sunday.
Until then, let’s look back at the storylines we had already seen play out before and look ahead at what’s next for the losers as they head into the offseason.
Patrick Mahomes gets hurt, but the Chiefs survive (again)
Two years ago, the Chiefs were hosting an upstart but historically hard-luck franchise in the Divisional Round. The home team was leading, just not comfortably so, when their MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes left the game due to a head injury. Chad Henne replaced Mahomes, prompting many of us to realize, “wait, Chad Henne is still in the NFL?”
The then-35-year-old, who hadn’t been a full-time starter since 2013 in Jacksonville, mostly managed the game fine, but he threw an interception halfway through the fourth quarter that gave the Browns a chance. Kansas City’s defense stood tall, which it really wasn’t known for, and then with an opportunity to salt the game away, Henne did just that in unexpected fashion with a long scramble on third down and a pass on fourth-and-1.
On Saturday, a similar story unfolded. Mahomes exited in the second quarter with an ankle injury while KC held a three-point edge over the Jaguars. Henne, two years older and even further away from his starting days, got a little revenge against his former team. He engineered a 12-play, 98-yard touchdown drive that gave the Chiefs more cushion heading into halftime (and eventually was the margin of victory).
Though Mahomes returned in the second half, Henne and Kansas City’s defense both stepped up when it mattered most, just as they did two years earlier. The defense forced two second-half turnovers, one on first-and-goal and another this leaping interception from rookie Jaylen Watson that basically sealed the game:
And now Arrowhead Stadium will be the site of the AFC Championship Game for the fifth year in a row, the second straight time against the Bengals.
What’s next for the Jaguars: Although the experience of the Chiefs was just too much for the Jags to overcome, they can feel proud of their season. They went from having the top pick in the draft to making it all the way to the Divisional Round in only one year.
Their turnaround is already ahead of schedule, and the future looks bright, thanks to a number of reasons: a QB on a rookie deal who took a big step forward, young playmakers (and more coming), a defense with a few nice pieces to build around, and a coach who knows what he’s doing. With two (maybe three) of the other teams in the AFC South on the verge of drafting a quarterback, the Jaguars are in good position to maintain their spot atop the division.
The Eagles win another playoff game by a 38-7 margin
The first time an NFL game ever ended with a final score of 38-7 came in 1931, when the Green Bay Packers beat the Providence Steam Roller in the latter franchise’s last home contest. In the 45 other 38-7 matchups since, only two have occurred in the postseason — and the Eagles won both of them.
Five years ago, the Eagles routed the Vikings, fresh off the Minneapolis Miracle, in the NFC title game. A couple weeks later, they were Super Bowl championships.
On Saturday night, the Eagles routed the Giants, fresh off their first playoff victory in 11 years, in a Divisional Round showdown. The city of Philadelphia certainly hopes that history will repeat itself and a Super Bowl parade will roll through its streets in a few weeks’ time.
I thought the two rivals’ third meeting in just over a month would be much closer than it was, but instead it resembled the Eagles’ 26-point victory in Week 14. Both times, Philly jumped out to a lead early and never looked back. Both times, Jalen Hurts played efficient, turnover-free football and accounted for three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). Both times, the Eagles’ rushing game lit up the Giants (250+ yards), while the Giants mostly abandoned theirs despite finding success (5+ yards/carry). Both times, Daniel Jones was under a lot of pressure and couldn’t get into a rhythm.
It was, objectively, the least exciting game of the weekend, although it did have the best bumper music selections:
I’d be surprised if we saw any other blowouts the rest of the postseason (knock on wood), but if the Eagles were to beat the 49ers by double digits next Sunday, it’d be another good omen for their championship dreams: In their Super Bowl-winning season, they earned a 33-10 win over the Niners.
What’s next for the Giants: As much as it might disgust them to admit this, the Giants should look to the Eagles for inspiration. Last year, the Eagles exceeded expectations by making the postseason in their coach’s first year, then had a mostly non-competitive exit in the playoffs. Their quarterback had flashes, but there were still questions about whether he was the long-term answer.
So what did Philly do that offseason? It surrounded him with talent and got the results it was looking for once the regular season began.
The Giants have some roster decisions to make this offseason, including what to do with Jones and Saquon Barkley, both of whom had resurgent seasons under Brian Daboll. If they want to keep those two around, which I’m guessing they do, then they could sign both to an extension, or sign one to an extension and use the franchise tag on the other.
After that, the priority needs to be upgrading the offensive line and receiving corps for Jones (or whoever the QB is), as well as improving the rush defense, which finished last in the league in DVOA.
The Bengals silence the doubters yet another time
Last year, the Bengals were the Cinderella story of the NFL postseason. They won their first playoff game in 31 years, then their first road playoff game ever, then their first AFC championship in 33 years — all by one score.
Alas, they came up just short of their first ever Super Bowl title, losing to the Rams by, of course, one score.
And yet, when the preseason Super Bowl odds were listed, they did not find themselves in the top 10. Maybe it was because they would face a tougher schedule in 2022, or maybe it was assumed they’d fall victim to the dreaded Super Bowl runner-up hangover. And at the beginning of the season, it looked like that might be the case: Cincinnati was 0-2 at the start and 4-4 at the end of October after a particularly ugly loss to the Browns.
But that ended up being an auspicious defeat, and the Bengals haven’t lost since. In fact, no team in the AFC had a longer winning streak heading into the postseason than Cincy. Somehow, though, they were still underdogs this Sunday in Buffalo.
That was fine with the Bengals, who use any sort of disrespect, real or imagined, as motivation. Most of all, they were clearly irked by the NFL and its rule changes for the AFC playoffs. So after crushing the Bills, who were the preseason Super Bowl favorites, Cincinnati players and coaches took a little time to gloat:
For the second year in a row, the Bengals will travel to Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game. Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, with all three matchups coming in the past year and all three of which were decided by three points. Deja vu, indeed.
What’s next for the Bills: It’s hard not to be disappointed with Buffalo’s season, considering the high expectations the team had entering the year. In some ways, the Bills’ loss in the Divisional Round probably felt like a Groundhog Day scenario.
But I think a few factors were working against them. They had a ton of injuries this year, most notably in the secondary and Von Miller’s ACL tear; Josh Allen never seemed right after his elbow ailment and also regressed, especially in the playoffs, without Brian Daboll around; and Damar Hamlin going into cardiac arrest right in front of them was no doubt traumatizing, even though he’s thankfully on the road to recovery.
Still, the Bills have some work to do this offseason, like give Allen another reliable receiving threat and better protection up front. They’ll probably have good Super Bowl odds again, but like every other year in the franchise’s existence, they’ll have to wait until next season to see if those come to fruition.
The 49ers rely on their defense to topple the Cowboys once more
Last year in the Wild Card Round, the 49ers and Cowboys faced off for the first time in the postseason since the early/mid-90s (coincidentally, the last time either has won a Super Bowl). After a slapdash ending, the Niners came away with a one-possession win, due mostly to their suffocating defense, the reliable leg of Robbie Gould, and a couple of timely plays from their offensive weapons. Their quarterback didn’t even throw a touchdown pass!
This year, their Divisional Round clash was practically a shot-for-shot remake, except San Francisco was the host and Brock Purdy, not Jimmy Garoppolo, was the 49ers’ quarterback. It was also more of a dogfight; the Niners never had more than a three-point lead until early in the fourth quarter. That’s when George Kittle’s incredible catch helped set up his team’s only touchdown (and the difference in the game):
San Francisco’s lockdown defense held the Cowboys — the league’s best red zone offense — to just one touchdown on three trips. It also picked off Dak Prescott, coming off his best game this year and best playoff performance ever, twice and only let him throw for 206 yards on 37 attempts.
Most hilariously, the Niners were not fooled at all by whatever this nonsense was:
While the Cowboys lost their seventh straight Divisional Round matchup, the Niners are headed to their third NFC Championship Game in the last four seasons.
What’s next for the Cowboys: The same issues seem to plague the Cowboys every time they reach the postseason, then fail to make it Conference Championship Weekend, at least in the past 27 years. There’s bad end-of-game management. Players not coming up in the clutch. And an overall lack of discipline.
I think a lot of that can be chalked up to poor coaching, but lest Jerry Jones decides to dump Mike McCarthy, which seems unlikely, I’m not sure how that gets fixed this offseason. Adding more offensive talent for Prescott will help, though Dallas has a lot of free agents and other roster decisions to make.
In the end, though, Jones only has himself to blame for the Cowboys’ recent futility:
So unless Jones makes a new deal, then the Cowboys could find themselves reliving this nightmare again next year.