4 NFL preseason trends that could carry over into the regular season

Get ready for rookie QBs and more trades.

A lot has happened in the NFL in recent weeks as the preseason concluded and as we prepare for the start of the new season. Due to my own busy schedule, I didn’t get a chance to weigh in earlier on those developments, but to make it up to you, I will send out three newsletters this week. So keep an eye out for my season predictions on Thursday, followed by my Week 1 picks on Friday. 

First, though, I’d like to examine some of what has unfolded in the past few weeks. It’s tempting to believe that everything that transpired in the preseason is a hint of what’s to come. Oftentimes, that’s not the case. However, there are several trends that seem bound to carry over into the regular season.  

A flurry of trades

The last week of August was a bustling time for the NFL’s trade market. As the cut deadline approached, 19 players were dealt to a new team. 

The headliner was the 49ers giving up on Trey Lance and sending him to the Cowboys. Just two years ago, the Niners forked over three first-round picks to draft Lance with the No. 3 selection. His career in San Francisco ended after just eight games. 

The Cowboys made a low-risk move — they sent a fourth-round pick to the 49ers — by adding Lance as their new third-string quarterback. Lance can work on his development, and continue his recovery from last season’s broken ankle, away from the impossible expectations that came when the Niners drafted him. If Dallas likes what it sees in Lance, then maybe it’ll decide to move on from Dak Prescott in a few years. Or maybe at a future time, the Cowboys can get a return on their investment by trading Lance away to a QB-needy team.

It was a much riskier decision by the 49ers to cut ties with Lance. Obviously, Kyle Shanahan and the rest of the coaching staff have an up-close look at their quarterbacks every day and know more about their abilities than the rest of us. But I personally would be worried about Brock Purdy being able to replicate his unprecedented success as the last pick in the draft, as well as Sam Darnold playing consistently enough if he’s pressed into duty. And even if they’re confident in Purdy’s and Darnold’s capability to manage games this season, how can the Niners of all teams trust their quarterbacks to stay healthy?

Hopefully it all works out, especially for Lance. Shanahan has a tendency to become disenchanted with young players, and I don’t know if he’s simply being impatient with Lance or if the 23-year-old doesn’t have “it.” We haven’t seen him play enough to know for sure yet. 

The 49ers weren’t the only team that decided to say goodbye to one of their recent first-round picks. In the first of three trades all on the same day, the Cardinals sent Isaiah Simmons, the No. 8 pick in the 2020 draft, to the Giants. As a prospect, Simmons was billed as a jack of all trades. Unfortunately, his career in Arizona completed the rest of that idiom: he was a master of none as he struggled to find a true role. The good news is that Simmons will now be under Wink Martindale’s tutelage, and if anyone can figure out how to properly harness Simmons’ talents, it’s the longtime defensive coordinator who was recently honored with an assistant coach lifetime achievement award. 

Later that day, the Cardinals raised a few eyebrows when they acquired quarterback Joshua Dobbs from the Browns. With Kyler Murray still out indefinitely — and as talk picks up that he might not play at all this season — Arizona decided to add career backup Dobbs as a potential starter. Whether the Cardinals are tanking in the NFL sense of the word or not, they’re not going to be much fun to watch this year.

Though the trade activity has died down in recent days, more deals will be on the horizon. Some will happen right before the league’s trade deadline on Oct. 31, but others — particularly involving big names who are unhappy with their current contracts — could come sooner.

Contract disputes aren’t going away

On that note, let’s talk about the players who are either holding out or at odds with their team over money. Jonathan Taylor’s situation with the Colts is the messiest. Once Indy granted Taylor permission to seek a trade, it seemed like a matter of time until one materialized. However, the Colts didn’t like the offers they received for the 24-year-old running back. So Taylor remains with the Colts, though he’s starting the season on the PUP list and will miss at least the first four games. 

If I were to guess, I wouldn’t count on Taylor ever playing for the Colts again. GM Chris Ballard might insist that their relationship with Taylor can still be saved, but I have my doubts. Some team, whether due to an injury or because they’re looking for another playmaker in their playoff push, will make a bid for Taylor before the trade deadline. 

I’m more optimistic when it comes to Nick Bosa’s standoff with the 49ers. Bosa, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, wants to be the league’s highest-paid defender. The 49ers are not a Super Bowl team without him. Even if the deal doesn’t happen before Week 1 — I think it will, FWIW — it almost certainly will get done. 

Things are a little hazier with Chris Jones and the Chiefs, who open the season in mere days. Kansas City is a Super Bowl hopeful as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, but Jones is the second-most important player on the team. He has been KC’s best and most reliable pass rusher since Mahomes took over under center. While youngsters like George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah could be the future, they aren’t the proven commodity that Jones is. Still, they might have to step up now, if Jones misses the first game of the season — and perhaps more.

Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns could also be MIA on Sunday as he tries to secure an extension. As talented as Burns is, he’s less likely to get his wish than Bosa and Jones, who are both first-team All-Pros who play for a contender. Burns will probably return to the lineup soon even if he doesn’t get the extension he wants, but that could also mean this will be his last season in Carolina. 

A big year for rookie quarterbacks

It’s hardly a surprise that the three quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round this year will all start in Week 1. In fact, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have also been named a team captain for the season (TBD on whether Bryce Young will receive that same honor with the Panthers, but it’s a good bet).

What has been a surprise, however, is the emergence of late-round and undrafted rookie quarterbacks. Call it the Brock Purdy effect, or maybe it’s the result of the new emergency quarterback rule. Either way, nine Day 3 and UDFA QBs made a 53-man roster, with a couple more landing on a practice squad.

Of those nine, several have earned the No. 2 QB job, while fifth-rounder Clayton Tune may or may not start for the Cardinals in their opener. Arguably the most impressive of the bunch was Dorian Thompson-Robinson. When the Browns drafted DTR in the fifth round, I immediately said — mostly jokingly but with a hint of truth — “QB1.” In the preseason, the UCLA product looked like the best quarterback the Browns have, even more so than the extremely expensive Deshaun Watson. With so much invested in Watson, Cleveland wouldn’t bench him for a rookie unless he majorly fell off a cliff and/or got hurt again. But DTR does appear to fit this offense really well and can perhaps be more than just a backup in the future. 

It’s unclear whether Tyson Bagent is the No. 2 or No. 3 QB on the Bears’ depth chart, but the undrafted rookie out of, uh, Shepherd made a name for himself in the past month. If you follow Division II football, then you might have already heard of Bagent, who won the 2021 Harlon Hill Trophy (aka the D-II Heisman). For most of us, we were introduced to him when he was making plays throughout the preseason. In each of the last two years, three different quarterbacks have started games for Chicago due to injury. It’s possible Bagent will get his chance, too, at some point this season, if Justin Fields gets banged up. 

Aidan O’Connell, a fourth-round pick by the Raiders, also has a decent shot at getting on the field because he sits behind the often-injured Jimmy Garoppolo (and maybe also Brian Hoyer). Even if he spends most of his rookie year riding the bench, O’Connell has shown promise that he can be a possible long-term answer for Vegas at QB. 

The same could be said for Jake Haener in New Orleans and Jaren Hall in Minnesota. Both are third-stringers and likely won’t see any meaningful snaps this year, but their upside is clear, if they continue to develop behind established veterans.

Elsewhere, Stetson Bennett will back up Matthew Stafford, who missed half of last season. Sean Clifford is QB2 behind Jordan Love, who has never been Green Bay’s full-time starter until now. And Tanner McKee is the Eagles’ No. 3 QB, despite outplaying Marcus Mariota throughout August. While none of them is expected to start a game in 2023, don’t be shocked if it happens — again, likely due to injury.

Spoiling for a fight

Every year, training camp fights happen across the NFL, sometimes between players on the same team and sometimes between players on opposing teams. But I swear, they were more frequent than ever this summer — 10-year vet Mike Evans would agree.

The most notable incidents included the Titans releasing offensive tackle Jamarco Jones after he instigated a couple of skirmishes in practice, and the Jets and Bucs accidentally sending defensive backs coach Tony Oden to the hospital during one of their brawls. If you’ve been tuning in to Hard Knocks this season, you saw the fight, but HBO declined to show, or even address, when Oden was carted off. 

Speaking of Hard Knocks, Aaron Rodgers’ testy exchange with Giants defender Jihad Ward was in the spotlight of this season’s penultimate episode, and their beef has found new life even after the cameras stopped rolling. As it so happens, the Jets and Giants will meet again in October. I don’t know if the feud between Rodgers and Ward will escalate leading up to that Week 8 contest, but I am concerned, in general, that the NFL’s pugnacious preseason will spill over into the regular season. 

This is not limited to football, either. People are behaving badly at concerts, on vacation, on planes (still!), and on the road. A year ago, I would have chalked it up to everyone having to relearn how to act in public after the worst of the pandemic had passed, but I think it goes deeper than that. So I will brace myself for more fights on the football field this season and hope that this is one prediction I’m wrong about.