The highs and lows of the 2022 NFL schedule
The one week you can't miss, the one week you can skip, and the most awkward reunions of the year.
The other week, in typical NFL pageantry fashion, the entire 2022 regular season schedule was released over a few days and an entire primetime block. The matchups are now set. The times and channels are too … mostly, anyway. Flexible scheduling can be implemented from Weeks 5-18, and the Saturday games in Week 15 and Week 18 have yet to be decided.
Obviously, a lot will change between now and September, and September and January — major injuries will happen, players will break out, some will be suspended. But overall, we have a clear picture of the upcoming season and who faces the easiest, and toughest, slate:
(Sorry, Mecole Hardman, it looks like you’re right.)
Let’s look beyond just the strength of each team’s schedule, though, and check out some of the highlights and lowlights on the 2022 NFL calendar.
The best week to cancel your plans
For years now, my weekends in autumn have revolved around football. The last clear memory I have of doing something “fun” not related to football on a fall weekend was in 2011 when I saw the (prescient, as it turns out) movie Contagion on a Sunday afternoon. That was definitely not the last time, but it’s the last one I can vividly recall anyway.
I know other fans aren’t as … I’ll be nice to myself and say “as dedicated” as I am. They want to get out and about with friends and family, see the beautiful foliage, drink PSLs, and eat some apple cider doughnuts. And well, our nation’s antiquated Monday-Friday, 9-5 work schedule doesn’t allow for a majority of folks to do that during the week.
So they still make plans during the weekend, even in the latter months of the year. But let’s say you’re looking to block off one weekend for the NFL, one when you can just lounge around all day Sunday and not do anything else but watch football. Which one should you pick?
The easiest answer would be Week 1 — we finally get football back after a roller coaster offseason, and the slate includes a few bitter rivalries and a couple of “Super Bowl preview?” matchups. That’s also the boring answer, because, well, who is making plans that weekend in the first place?!
Instead, I’ll suggest Week 4. You want the most bang for your buck if you’re going to sit in your pajamas all day and only stand when you have to get up to use the bathroom or your Apple Watch tells you to. That means you’ll want as many games as possible available to you.
Byes don’t start until Week 6, so every team plays in Week 4, and Sunday kicks off with the first London game of the season. Your day of football watching can begin at 9:30 a.m. ET with Vikings-Saints and end about 14 hours later, when either Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady is left too much time and conjures up a game-winning drive in a Super Bowl 55 rematch between the Bucs and Chiefs.
There are some duds during the afternoon (Seahawks-Lions, Bears-Giants), but there’s at least one potential banger — Bills-Ravens at 1 p.m. and Patriots-Packers at 4:25 p.m. — in each window. Plus, the week is bookended by the two most recent Super Bowl participants: the Bengals host the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, while the Rams visit the 49ers on Monday night.
The best week to make plans
Let’s say “NFL and chill” is your default mode every Sunday in the fall, but your family demands you engage in some kind of social activity one weekend of the season. Which one will minimize the chance of you missing anything important?
First, you want to choose a week when several teams are on bye. Then, check to see which has the worst good:bad matchup ratio. Considering these factors, and the benefit of a midseason mental break, I think your best bet would be Week 7, which features exactly one game between teams that made the playoffs last season (Chiefs-49ers).
Only four squads are off that week, though two of them, the Rams and Bills, are Super Bowl contenders. The primetime clashes are also anything but must-watch. Saints-Cardinals on Thursday night has the most potential, but you can probably skip Steelers-Dolphins and Bears-Patriots and not sweat it.
Which team will be a paper tiger?
Every season, at least one team will start off hot and look like a lock to make the playoffs but then collapse in the second half. In recent years, that description fit the Raiders and Cardinals, though both got into the postseason in 2021 … even if the Cardinals still faded down the stretch again. The Ravens, who were leading the AFC North at the midseason mark and even at the end of November, weren’t so lucky: They dropped their final six games, due in part to injuries and failed two-point tries.
I can’t predict who will get hurt, but based on the quality of their opponents and the timing of their games, I’ve narrowed down the list of candidates to four: the Cardinals (again), Raiders (again), Broncos, and Commanders.
The Cardinals and Raiders are included for both their history of melting down late in the season and because their second-half schedules are high in difficulty. From Week 10 on, Arizona has five games against teams that made the playoffs in 2021, as well as ones against the dangerous Chargers and Broncos. Vegas, which has an early bye in Week 6, finishes the year with five straight matchups against 2021 playoff teams, not to mention a rematch against the Chargers the week before that.
If the Raiders don’t blow it in the final month or so of the season, one AFC West team likely will. I think the Broncos are the next in line. A couple of times in his career, Russell Wilson has seen his MVP candidacy deteriorate as the end of the season approaches. The Seahawks were partly (mostly?) to blame for that, but Wilson could face questions about his endurance this year too, considering what the Broncos have in store for them. In the first half of the season, they’ll meet up with several opponents — the Seahawks, Texans, Jets, Jaguars, and Panthers — sitting near the bottom of ESPN’s FPI rankings. After that, things get real. Their December/January slate is no joke:
@ Baltimore
vs. Kansas City
vs. Arizona
@ LA Rams
@ Kansas City
vs. Chargers
Finally, we have the Commanders, who have the easiest or one of the easiest schedules this season, depending on which metric you use. However, they have a tricky situation to navigate starting in Week 10. Four of their final opponents will have longer rests — “mini byes,” per Warren Sharp — before their matchup against Washington. Plus, Carson Wentz will be their quarterback. Who’s going to trust his team to finish strong?
Which team will have a second-half surge?
Remember last season, when the Chiefs started the year 3-4 and there was real concern that they wouldn’t win their division, maybe not even make the playoffs? Yeah, they won nine of their last 10 regular season games and secured their sixth straight AFC West title in Week 16.
History could repeat itself:
It’s not like Kansas City’s schedule is a cakewalk in the second half, though they have a few gimme wins (Jags, Texans, Seahawks). As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, and Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy continue to adjust their offensive gameplan as need be, the Chiefs will probably once again find their groove later in the season.
The Ravens, who face teams like the Panthers, Jags, and Falcons after their Week 10 bye, are another candidate. So are the Cowboys — they drew the Bucs, Bengals, Rams, and Packers in the first half but after that, they only have one meeting against a team that won double-digit games in 2021 (the Titans).
Ranking the five international games by watchability
Covid halted many things, including the NFL’s continued attempt at world domination. Now, it’s back on. After it took the 2020 season off and featured just two London trips in 2021, the International Series increases to five games this season: three in the UK, a return to Mexico City, and the first regular season contest in Germany.
On paper, the matchups aren’t great for the most part, but at least there’s a little novelty with a few of them. This is how I would rank them as of right now, from most to least watchable:
1. 49ers vs. Cardinals in Mexico City (Week 11)
The final international game of the season could be the most competitive of the bunch. The 49ers and Cardinals, like the entire NFC West is wont to do, tend to play each other tough. And although the Cardinals swept the season series last year, both matchups happened in the first half of the season. This time, they’ll play their rivals in the dreaded second half.
The closest of the two games last season happened in Trey Lance’s starting debut. If both quarterbacks are healthy in late November (kind of a big “if”), then this will be the second of hopefully many Kyler Murray vs. Trey Lance showdowns.
2. Vikings vs. Saints in London (Week 4)
According to Vegas’ win totals, the Vikings and Saints should be pretty evenly matched this season. They also have a sneaky-good rivalry and have put on a couple of all-time thrillers in recent years. London fans deserve a little NFL drama!
I’m also curious if the fans at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will automatically root against the Saints for reasons related to their definition of football. Or maybe they’ll cheer for them because they share an anthem?
3. Seahawks vs. Buccaneers in Germany (Week 10)
With the Seahawks in rebuilding mode this season, I’m not sure their overseas affair with the Bucs will be all that close. Still, it’s the start of a new NFL tradition in Germany, so that’s fun … even if Tom Brady abroad is very much like Tom Brady on American soil:
4. Giants vs. Packers in London (Week 5)
The Packers are the only franchise to never play in the International Series. That will change in early October, when they meet the Giants in London. Perhaps new coach Brian Daboll can turn the Giants into a surprising tough opponent in 2022. More likely, though, they’ll still be finding their legs this early in the season. It’s cool that UK fans will finally get to watch the Packers in person, but otherwise, there’s not too much to get hyped about with this matchup.
5. Broncos vs. Jaguars in London (Week 6)
The Jags are back in London … for the ninth time. At least it’s been a while, 12 years in fact, since the Broncos traveled to England. But I can already picture a gray, rainy atmosphere and a 17-6 final score. This is the international matchup you don’t have to feel guilty about missing, which you might anyway because it will air exclusively on ESPN+.
The six most awkward reunions
If you’re looking for rematches of last year’s greatest hits, you’re in luck: Bills-Chiefs (Week 6), Raiders-Chargers (Weeks 1 and 13), and Rams-Bucs (Week 9) are all on deck this season.
But if you like your revenge with a side of cringe, then you’re also in luck because a number of players and coaches will face off against their former teams. At best, these reunions can be tinged with awkwardness, and at worst, bad blood. Here are six homecomings in 2022 that have a little (or a lot) of each:
Week 1: Russell Wilson and the Broncos vs. the Seahawks
In his first pro game in a non-Seahawks uniform, Russell Wilson will play … in the familiar confines of Lumen Field. This Monday Night Football showcase will wrap up the first week of the season and usher in the new Wilson era in Denver and the post-Wilson era in Seattle.
The big question is how Wilson will be greeted by the notoriously vocal fans in his old home. On the one hand, he delivered them their first (and only) Super Bowl title and has been nothing but gracious to the city. On the other hand, he clearly wanted out of Seattle for a while and finally got his wish this offseason.
Weeks 3 and 10: Carson Wentz and the Commanders vs. the Eagles
In 2016, the Eagles traded up to draft Carson Wentz at No. 2. That move appeared to pay off when, in a year and change after that, he was an MVP candidate for a Super Bowl contender. Then Wentz tore his ACL, Nick Foles led the Eagles to their first championship, and Philly partied its butt off (and ate poop).
In his final year there, Wentz’s play was pitiful and he fell out of favor with teammates and fans alike. The Eagles benched him for then-rookie Jalen Hurts, who will go toe-to-toe with Wentz twice this season. Assuming both stay healthy and neither gets benched, of course. When Wentz was traded to the Colts, the general feeling in Philadelphia seemed to be “good riddance.”
And if you’re wondering how the Eagles crowd will welcome Wentz back in Week 10, may I remind you that this a fanbase that once booed and threw snowballs at Santa?
Week 7: Brian Flores and the Steelers vs. the Dolphins
Brian Flores’ Dolphins seemed on the cusp of a breakout season until he was abruptly fired after just three years. Soon after, Flores sued the league and a few teams, the Dolphins included, for racial discrimination. The lawsuit is ongoing and he has since added other Black coaches to the complaint.
Flores interviewed with, but was not hired by, several franchises after the Dolphins let him go. None hired him as their new head coach, and Mike Tomlin eventually brought him to Pittsburgh as a senior defensive assistant/linebackers coach.
His role with the Steelers won’t put him on center stage when he makes the trip back to Miami, though I’m sure the TV cameras will find Flores at some point during the game, or at least after when he embraces his former players.
Week 8: Carson Wentz and the Commanders vs. the Colts
Frank Reich, bless him, tried to make Wentz happen in Indianapolis. However, when the quarterback’s jitters and subsequent inaccuracy and turnovers in a must-win game cost the Colts a playoff spot, there was no choice but to go back to the trade well. The Colts dumped Wentz onto Washington and dealt for veteran Matt Ryan, an upgrade in every way except the amount of tread on his tires.
Midwestern friendliness might not be on display when Wentz returns to Indy, unless it’s of the passive-aggressive variety, like, “Hey, awesome job in that loss to the god-awful Jags last season. We know you did your best, bud.”
Week 10: Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys vs. the Packers
A few weeks before the 2018 season ended, the Packers canned Mike McCarthy, their coach of 13 years whose 135 wins placed him second all-time in franchise history. McCarthy was irked by the timing and way in which he was fired, saying “it couldn’t have been handled any worse.”
He’ll return to Lambeau this season with the Cowboys, and he could find himself on the hot seat once again if his team doesn’t start winning when it matters. Like in pivotal games against contenders, such as the one in Green Bay.
What we’ll really be watching for is this: How will Aaron Rodgers and McCarthy cope with being in the same vicinity again? Rodgers had a toxic relationship with McCarthy (and pretty much everyone else in his life), stemming from McCarthy liking Alex Smith better in the 2005 draft.
I’m guessing Rodgers’ grudge, four years after they last worked together, is still burning bright.
Week 13: Deshaun Watson and the Browns vs. the Texans
I don’t know when the NFL will announce Deshaun Watson’s suspension, nor do I know how long it will last. Knowing this league, though, it seems likely that it will be over by the time the Browns visit Houston. The same city where pretrial depositions have begun for the 22 civil lawsuits he faces due to sexual misconduct allegations.
Before those allegations first came to light over a year ago, Watson was considered a generational talent but one the Texans franchise wasn’t doing right by. His image is now, deservedly tarnished and he should be jeered at every stadium he sets foot in, including his former home.