How can the Patriots reclaim their elite defense?
AND: what the J.J. Watt saga tells us about free agency; and some thoughts about how the offseason sausage is made
Because starting a lame QB gets a lot either when your opponent only scores 10 points.
Bill Belichick has a lot on his plate in 2021.
He’s coming off his first year without a playoff appearance since 2008. The Patriots are reeling from their first losing season since 2000. The Cam Newton experiment failed, and now he has to address a roster plagued with questions at nearly every position (not punter — thanks Jake Bailey!).
The headline that wraps up this vital offseason will undoubtedly focus on the team’s quarterback decision, especially with Tom Brady coming off a Super Bowl victory and the six-day hangover that followed his boozy boat parade. While this will undoubtedly shape the face of the franchise, it may not stand as the most important decision of the spring. Why? Because Belichick needs to figure out what the hell he’s gonna do with his defense to make it back to the postseason.
New England was able to win despite bad defenses in the past. Matt Patricia’s bend-don’t-break unit of 2017 ranked 31st out of 32 teams in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, yet still claimed the AFC title before giving up 41 points to Nick Foles in Super Bowl 52 — a deficiency balanced off by Brady’s MVP season that fall. The two years that followed saw that group improve significantly after Patricia’s departure, rising to 19th in 2018 (and a Super Bowl win in which the Rams mustered only three points — thanks Lions!) before peaking at No. 1 the next year.
This was a return to the early 2000s for Belichick, whose first wave of Patriot championships came via smothering defenses and good, but not great, passing efficiency. While we don’t know exactly which direction New England will take when it comes to its 2021 QB, the team’s middling draft position and a limited supply of trustworthy passers on the open market suggest its future success lies in its past. Rebuild that defense and it won’t matter if your passing game is only average.
There are several positives to this. 2020 saw veteran starters Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung opt out while reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore dealt with injury through much of the season. That depleted group still ranked seventh in the NFL when it came to points allowed … though its DVOA number painted the Pats as a bottom-tier unit helped significantly by field position.
Hightower and Chung are expected to return in 2021. Gilmore will be healthy once more. All three would provide a significant boost. There’s still plenty of work for Belichick and his cohort to get done before he can feel confident about this defense, though. What comes next?
1. Sign J.C. Jackson to a long-term extension
Jackson has been a steal for the Pats. The former undrafted free agent emerged as a lockdown corner in deep ball situations, hauling in nine interceptions while swatting down another 14 passes. He’s a restricted free agent, so New England could place a first-round tender on him and see if anyone is willing to cough up a king’s ransom in future picks to lure him out of town.
The much more likely scenario is that Belichick uses his 2021 cap space to ink him to a long-term extension that keeps him in town. That would be the opposite of what he did before allowing similar UDFA riser Malcolm Butler to leave in free agency, but Jackson’s play has been more stable … and he has yet to get himself benched in a Super Bowl. He’s likely looking at something in the $15-16 million salary range, but the Patriots have the cap space to offer him a market value contract, especially if they punt a good chunk of that money to 2022 when the cap rises in a post-pandemic world (fingers crossed! Fingers crossed? eh). This would be vital for a team whose defensive tone has been set in the secondary, especially with Gilmore’s future uncertain.
Speaking of ...
2. Extend Stephon Gilmore
Gilmore has been responsible for some capital-M Moments as a Patriot. A game-sealing interception in Super Bowl 53. Swatting away Blake Bortles’ fourth-and-long pass to clinch the 2017 AFC title. A Defensive Player of the Year award in 2019.
The former Bill is a rare high-priced free agency success story for Belichick, who’d gotten middling returns from defenders like Rosevelt Colvin and Adalius Thomas in the past. Gilmore’s set to play out the final year of the five-year, $65 million deal he signed back in 2017. Though he’d cost the team more than $16 million in cap space next season, a release or trade would clear more than $7 million from New England’s books.
But Gilmore also has no more guaranteed money remaining on his contract — that dead cash has already been paid to him, then prorated from the early stages of his deal. Inking an extension in New England could pay him around $9 million in salary while lining up larger salaries in 2022 and 2023. This would keep the All-Pro corner in town, reduce his cap hit for 2021, and give the club a fair amount of insulation in case of an age-related decline moving forward.
While his play could drop off, Gilmore gave the Patriots Pro Bowl-level production when healthy last season. Opposing QBs completed only 57 percent of their passes against him and threw for only one touchdown when he was the primary defender. His 75.7 passer rating allowed was second-best among starters behind only Jackson. He’s still got gas in the tank.
An extension means kicking Gilmore’s guarantees into 2022, which would be a bitter pill if his play falls off in his 30s. It would be easier to swallow under a salary cap likely to balloon in a post-pandemic NFL. Eating $15m in space against a $180m cap this spring will have a much more painful impact than taking on that same hit against a $200m+ salary limit next year.
This would also make it easier to say goodbye to free agent Jason McCourty. McCourty way outplayed his trade value after coming to New England from Cleveland in exchange for a swap of late Day 3 picks in 2018. Unfortunately, he’ll also be 34 years old in 2021 and is coming off a season in which he gave up a team-worst 131.4 passing rating in coverage.
3. Invest in a run-stuffing defensive tackle
New England ranked dead last in rushing DVOA last season. This was a far cry from the glory days of Vince Wilfork.
The defensive fronts of Belichick’s recent 3-4 lineups have been a smorgasbord of decent platoon players lacking the kind of lane-clogging, double-team absorbing star that can make everyone else’s life easier. 2020 saw a rotation led by Lawrence Guy, Byron Cowart, Adam Butler, and Deatrich Wise help produce a top-five pressure rate while allowing more than 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.
The Patriots will have a solid lineup of veteran free agents to sort through if they decide they want to spend up at tackle. Young veterans like Larry Ogunjobi and Dalvin Tomlinson are both likely to hit free agency and both are capable of being gap-stuffing roadblocks on running downs and pocket-shrinkers against the pass. Neither would be especially cheap —Tomlinson in particular is expected to be a hot commodity— so Belichick would likely be looking at an annual outlay of somewhere around $13-16m, depending on how their market shapes up.
That would be an unprecedented investment in the middle of the line for a team that’s preferred to bulk up its front through the draft (see: former first-round picks Wilfork, Ty Warren, Malcolm Brown, etc). Given the rest of the holes New England needs to fill, it may be a necessity for a team that flailed against the run in 2020.
Fortunately, retaining the other members of that platoon will create some savings. Butler languished in Pro Football Focus’s grading metric after playing roughly 50 percent of the team’s snaps as an end. While PFF didn’t like him, he ranked second on the team in sacks, third in pressures, and had the lowest missed tackle rate of anyone who made at least 30 stops. He may still be under the radar enough to sign a two-year deal averaging something slightly more than the $3.2 million he earned last fall on a restricted free agent tender.
Guy has been an unsung hero in the middle of the New England line since signing a four-year, $20m deal in 2017. He’ll also be 32 this upcoming season, only plays roughly half the team’s snaps, and racked up twice as many missed tackles last year as he did in 2018 and 2019 combined. He’s still got value, but it’s possible the Patriots have passed the torch to the younger Cowart when it comes to attacking gaps. If he languishes in free agency, an inexpensive return to Foxborough could be in the cards. The same goes for Wise, who played out the start of his career as “the Arkansas d-lineman who *isn’t* Trey Flowers,” before emerging as a useful, if inconsistent, pass rushing end.
Belichick will also have to figure out what to do with Beau Allen, who missed the 2020 season due to injury after signing a two-year deal last offseason. Releasing him would clear a couple million in cap space, but I cannot recommend that since he both went to Wisconsin and had the good judgment to make this his official Patriots headshot.
Allen’s future likely hinges on Guy’s. If healthy, he’s a space-eating tackle who can rotate in/out of the lineup with Cowart and another young prospect. If not, well, he’s still got his male modeling career.
The Pats have young linebackers who can clean up a mess, but 2020 proved they aren’t yet at a spot where they can do it on their own. Ja’Whaun Bentley’s strength is anything but tracking down jittery ballcarriers in the open field. Hightower’s return will boost that group. Adding an impact tackle could be even bigger. Clogging lanes at the line of scrimmage would ripple through New England’s defensive lineup — even if doing so means taking the kind of risk Belichick would have avoided in years past.
4. Prepare for life without Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung
New England is already on its way with this one. 2020 second-round pick — from D-II Lenoir-Rhyne! — Kyle Dugger looked like a solid starter after gaining his sea legs early in the season. Free agent addition Adrian Phillips also played well enough in his first season as a full-time starter.
The Patriots need more reinforcements as a changing of the guard looms. McCourty will be 34 next season and saw his play fall off significantly after a very good 2019. Chung is roughly the same age and while his quickness may not play as big a role thanks to his spot as the strong safety across from a free-roaming McCourty, he’s typically been the man tasked with shadowing athletic tight ends in the middle of the field. If he’s lost a step after sitting out 2020, we’ll know right away.
The 2021 draft doesn’t have many stars at the safety position, but it’s a deep class filled with players who could still be on the board in the second and third rounds — where Belichick usually likes to hoard his draft stash (though the club is out its regularly scheduled third-rounder for taping the Bengals sideline ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). A sliding prospect like Hamsah Nasirildeen or Paris Ford could make a lot of sense here. Same with potential buy-low veterans like Tashaun Gipson or Xavier Woods.
5. Bring back Kyle Van Noy
I’m with Devin on this one. Reunite the Boogeymen.
Van Noy’s PFF grade in 2020 was a mere 61.6. His grade in his final full season as a Lion was 45.8. His three full seasons in New England? 57.2, 65.2, and 83.5. Not only was he better as a Patriot, but he grew consistently within the team’s system. Van Noy thrived in the versatile rover linebacker role he filled in Belichick’s 3-4.
He regressed as a surefire tackler in 2020, but he still managed six sacks and 10 tackles for loss, two categories in which he would have led the Pats. His 10 quarterback hits would have been third-most. Van Noy is about to turn 30 and may suffer a slight decline, but his best option may be to take the Jamie Collins route, rehabilitate his value as a linebacker in New England, and then depart for whichever member of Belichick’s coaching tree is eager to hand him three years and $33 million in 2022.
***
All told, a good chunk of money will have to be spent to restore the Patriots defense. That’s alright! New England has more than $62 million in cap space to work with, even in the face of a diminished salary cap that could soften this year’s free agent marketplace. Of course, just because Belichick has this cash doesn’t mean he’ll spend it — and as tempting a splash like a Jackson mega-deal and a $55m contract for Tomlinson would be, it’s just as likely the Pats opt for a $4m veteran and handful of undrafted free agents instead.
And that still might work out. It’s Bill Belichick after all. — CD
Watt a time
I’ve been looking forward to the official start of this year’s free agency period, which promises to be pretty eventful:
But for some players, free agency has already begun. And in the case of J.J. Watt, it’s now ended.
Granted, it’s not like every available player has Watt’s resume and name recognition, but I think how his free agency adventure unfolded bodes well for this month’s NFL news cycle. The speculation about which team Watt would pick was both entertaining and kinda dumb: Fans were looking for hidden clues inside cryptic tweets about mitochondria, and someone created a fake Peloton profile for Watt to suggest he had narrowed his options down to the Packers, Bills, and Browns — all teams that could give Watt a decent shot at securing a Super Bowl ring. (A ridiculous goof, sure, but at least this was more creative than simply Photoshopping Watt into a different jersey.)
And then, Watt’s choice was an unexpected destination. The Cardinals kinda came out of nowhere to land Watt; the most publicized rumors didn’t even mention them. Despite all the teams trying to woo him, Watt was won over by the one that offered a dynamic young quarterback, a pass-rushing partner in Chandler Jones, and a reunion with DeAndre Hopkins and Vance Joseph.
It’s hard to buy the Cardinals as a Super Bowl contender when they fell apart down the stretch last year, but I do think they are on the precipice of making the playoffs. I also think Watt can help get them there, if used properly. Although Watt is no longer at his peak, he’s not washed either and can be a productive member of the Cardinals in the latter stages of his career. More Kurt Warner or Edgerrin James than Emmitt Smith, if you will.
So while Watt surprised many of us by signing with the Cardinals, it also makes sense for both sides. That’s what I’m hoping to see play out elsewhere this month: heightened drama, some laughs, and an ending that works out for the main character. For WandaVision most of all, but y’know, also for the rest of the NFL’s free agents. — SH
HOW IS THIS NEWS???
Stupid (and veiled racist) takes/taeks about quarterbacks aren’t the only stupid narrative force fed to football fans every spring. There’s another widely shared trope getting pushed around this time of year, one that’s really not worthy of a single blot of ink outside local markets—the HIGHLY FOCUSED player.
I feel like we used to get Instagrams of J.J. Watt doing some kind of ridiculous squats around now, but at least his offseason story is mostly centered on him escaping the vortex of shittiness for the Cardinals. Some of my favorite pieces of this genre were the now-ancient RGIII social posts featuring him working out with a hashtagged version of one of his trademarked expressions. Or maybe I’m jumbling up my memories of offseason player #content. But the king of this kind of soulless promotion is none other than Tom Brady. Who else.
The day after the Super Bowl, you’ll be surprised to learn, Brady was already focusing on next season.
In sports mythology, Tom Brady is one of those CHAMPIONS who never rest, never take a day off, and don’t pause to enjoy the accomplishment at hand. No, that would take away from the potential accomplishment that’s next.
Of course this is bullshit. We saw Brady taking time out of his grueling routine to celebrate in the days after the Super Bowl. It was impossible to miss the hundreds of “Look at drunk Tom Brady throwing the Lombardi Trophy” social aggregation posts that sprouted up around the internet and clogged every news feed with even more nonsense.
KEEP ON GRINDING is a myth pushed by the sports industrial complex and their willing accomplices in pleated khakis tasked who love to take a few dumb quotes like this and turn it into column inches.
I don’t know why players and teams think we give a shit that they’re focused on winning, even after they just won. I guess it shows their commitment and keeps fans interested, or so they believe. It’s a reality they’ve created in which the idea of DOING THE JOB is confirmed with talking points.
But it’s also, like, yeah, no shit. You’re not dedicating your life to a sport that destroys your brain because it’s just a damn job.
Back when the three of us here were on this beat 90 hours a week, one of the more annoying things we’d encounter from the ever-so-pleasant people of the Internet was the “WHY IS THIS NEWS?!?!?!” comment. Usually it involved something on the more creative end of stuff we did, something humorous, a parody, or something like that. I don’t recall it popping up very often for stuff like players already being focused on next year (which isn’t really something we covered it anyway, unless we were told to for the sake of publishing content.)
So as much as I hate those four words, when I see the shocking report that a soulless humanoid kept alive by Omega-3s and encouraging slaps on the ass is already thinking about next season, I want to scream “HOW IS THIS NEWS?!?!”
It’s not. It’s noise. Sometimes it fades into the ether without registering. Sometimes an old fart with a national column turns it into a 6,000-word story that drives the offseason news cycle for a week when we should all really be otherwise tuned out. We’re lucky we’re on the cusp of wild free agency period to drown out this stuff for now.
At any rate, ONTO THE NEXT NEWSLETTER! —RVB
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