Hall of Fame hucksters and more reasons to hate these playoff teams
Also, some hope for the Rams to beat the Packers, a snow game, Divisional round picks, and more!!!!!
How can the Rams derail the Packers’ NFC title hopes?
The thing about the Packers is every few weeks they play a stupid and confusing football game. That’s how they got boat-raced over three quarters by the Buccaneers. That’s how the Colts shredded their defense for an overtime win. That’s how the then 1-5 Vikings escaped Lambeau Field with a win.
After ruling the NFC with a 13-3 record and earning the conference’s only bye, Green Bay has to prove its immunity to another letdown in its quest to get Aaron Rodgers back to the Super Bowl. Standing in the way is a Rams team without much certainty at quarterback due to Jared Goff’s broken thumb, John Wolford’s recent injury, and Blake Bortles’ general presence. Still, Los Angeles has the depth elsewhere to make life miserable in Wisconsin.
But how do they get there?
With a powerful defensive front — even with Aaron Donald nursing a rib injury — explosive defensive backs, and a to- five defense, the Rams most closely align with Tampa Bay on the short list of teams that toppled the Pack in the regular season. Let’s take a closer look at how they did it … and whether LA can follow a similar script.
Generate pressure, even if it’s not coming via blitz
Tampa Bay finished the season with a top-five blitz rate, but went above and beyond to make Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable in the pocket. The Bucs’ 18 blitzes on 41 dropbacks outshined their regular season rate (44 percent to 39 percent) and generated pressure on nearly a third of his dropbacks. Between four sacks — the second-most he absorbed all season — and six bad throws, nearly a quarter of the Packers’ passing plays were dead in the water.
As a result, this happened:
Aaron Rodgers passer rating vs. Tampa, Week 6: 35.6
Aaron Rodgers passer rating, every 2020 game BUT Week 6 vs. Tampa: 127.7
Los Angeles’ defensive gameplan doesn’t work that way, but should still be able to rattle the presumptive MVP. The Rams only blitzed on 27 percent of their snaps this season (19th-highest in the NFL) but generated pressure on 23 percent of opponents’ dropbacks (15th) thanks to Donald’s game-changing bullrush up front and Leonard Floyd’s ability to navigate the gaps left in his wake. That provides more efficient attacks on the pocket compared to a team like the Bucs, who blitz 39 percent of the time but get pressure on 27 percent of those dropbacks.
This is good, because defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has shown an aversion to blitzing proven quarterbacks. A look at the team’s history showed plenty of pressure-creating, “we’ll trust our DBs to clean this up” stunts against quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Nick Foles, and Washington’s combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen. When more respected pocket passers are in the lineup, that aggression was dialed back in order to allow extra coverage downfield.
Rams blitzes, 2020 (a sampling)
Sam Darnold: 12 in 33 dropbacks (36.4%)
Daniel Jones: 17 in 41 dropbacks (41.5%)
Cam Newton/Jarrett Stidham: 1 in 29 dropbacks (34.5%)
Nick Foles: 18 in 44 dropbacks (40.9%)
...
Tom Brady: 9 in 49 dropbacks (18.4%)
Dak Prescott: 8 in 45 dropbacks (17.8%)
Jimmy Garoppolo: 8 in 34 dropbacks (23.2%)
Even the exceptions trend toward fewer blitzes, as the team let off the gas against lesser-known products like Tua Tagovailoa and Nick Mullens as the season wore on. The only Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback the Rams consistently threw extra guys at this year was Russell Wilson, and that seems more like a treatise on his eternally disappointing offensive line than anything else.
Rodgers trends pretty heavily toward the latter list, which also serves as an indictment on the overall quarterback quality the Rams have gone up against this fall. While there will be some obvious passing down blitzes, expect LA to leave Donald, Floyd, and Michael Brockers to handle the dirty work at the line while dropping extra men to aid in coverage behind them.
Mirror the Packers downfield *and* near the line of scrimmage
The Rams have fielded one of the league’s top passing defenses behind a potent 1-2 punch of Jalen Ramsey and John Johnson. As good as they’ve been, that’s only the surface of one of the league’s deepest secondaries. LA ranks second in the NFL in passer rating allowed (80.4) and first in yards per opponent’s pass attempt (6.2) because players like Troy Hill and Jordan Fuller have stepped up, but the name to know for Saturday’s Divisional Round game is Darious Williams.
Assuming Ramsey shadows Davante Adams all afternoon, Williams will be called on to snuff out Green Bay’s non-Adams deep threat, the mercurial Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The third-year wideout has been Rodgers’ huckleberry on fly routes because of his ability to create space downfield. His 20.9 yards per catch were most in the NFL by more than two full yards. His yards per target number were fifth, however, because of his proclivity for drops like this:
Limiting MVS would be huge. He had just three catches on five targets for 32 yards in that Week 6 loss to Tampa. Valdes-Scantling’s team is undefeated when he averages more than 20 yards per catch (5-0) but a less imposing 8-3 when he doesn’t.
Williams is up to the task. His average target clocked in at a shade under 15 yards downfield, but he still held opposing quarterbacks to just a 63.8 rating — the lowest among any Ram regular, including Ramsey. His four interceptions led the team. He was instrumental in limiting playmakers throughout the season, and while his All-Pro teammate may get all the accolades, Williams may well be the most important piece of the Rams’ secondary against the Packers.
Another key aspect of the Bucs’ win was stopping rising tight end Robert Tonyan. Green Bay is 8-1 in games in which he scores a touchdown and 4-2 when he doesn’t, which includes the aforementioned blowout in Florida. Tampa Bay gave up just three catches for 25 yards to Tonyan thanks to the presence of Carlton Davis, Mike Whitehead, and rotational safety Mike Edwards. The Rams have even better personnel who can produce a similar result.
Los Angeles has the help to run with Big Bob Funyans (nickname pending). Johnson has been a proven eraser when it comes to close routes, closing quickly with solid hands and extremely steady tackling. Linebackers Micah Kaiser, Troy Reeder, and Kenny Young have also been effective against short-range passes designed to lead to big pickups afterward. They’ve allowed fewer than five yards-after-catch in coverage despite mostly crashing toward drag plays and screens. That creates a tough assignment for Tonyan — as well as potentially limited passing game returns for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.
The Rams have the chops to take away Rodgers’ big plays downfield and the strength to keep short passes stuck around the line of scrimmage. They can force Green Bay into a rock fight, and if they do there’s a chance they’ve got the offensive talent, even with a question mark at quarterback, to come out ahead.
Strike hard at the Packers’ biggest weakness
Green Bay struggles to make tackles on runs up the middle. Inside linebackers Christian Kirksey, Krys Barnes, and Kamal Martin have been underwhelming, to say the least. Following former Pack ILB Blake Martinez’s example, they often struggle to jump downfield blockers and make tackles close to the line of scrimmage on running downs. But unlike Martinez, their combined 10.5 percent missed tackle rate is a significant cause for concern.
The Buccaneers exploited this weakness en route to 155 rushing yards (on 5.5 yards per carry) and a pair of touchdowns from Ronald Jones and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn — a not-especially-intimidating running back combo. While some of those yards came in garbage time of an already-decided game, it still reflects on a problem that’s nagged the team all year and proved fatal in last winter’s NFC title game: A good running game can cave in their Super Bowl hopes.
Thus, Green Bay must have been pretty bummed to see Cam Akers’ rise from “little-used rotation back” to “rookie wrecking ball” over the last quarter of the regular season. The former Florida State star was a fantasy football hero after rising to the starting lineup late in the year, averaging 109 yards of total offense over his final four games of 2020. He kept that momentum moving by racking up 131 rush yards and adding 45 more through the air to end the Seahawks’ season last week in Seattle.
Much to the Packers’ chagrin, Akers excelled through the static of runs up the middle. If he can do this to five-time All-Pro Bobby Wagner:
Just imagine what he can get done against Green Bay’s spackle-and-duct-tape ILB crew.
The Packers addressed that weakness somewhat by adding veteran Damon Harrison after his release by the Seahawks, but there’s a reasonable concern about how much he can help after failing to crack the rotation in Seattle. Even if he can provide league-average snaps in the middle of the defensive line, he’ll be going up against a group of blockers Pro Football Focus ranked third-best in the NFL this season. If LA can marginalize Green Bay’s defensive front and create enough room for Akers to change direction in the second level, it’s going to be a pretty significant problem.
Still, it’s easy to see why Green Bay is favored by a touchdown
The Packers have a lot going for them Saturday. They have the quarterback who’ll likely be 2020’s MVP and a game-changing wide receiver who I voted as my NFL Offensive Player of the Year in the PFWA’s annual awards. Aaron Jones and a powerful tailback stable can fill in any gaps left by the passing game. Jaire Alexander and a useful secondary can turn the mistakes of a broken-thumbed Jared Goff into Green Bay possessions. Aaron Donald may not be 100 percent.
That doesn’t mean the Rams are dead in the water. They have the weapons necessary to follow Tampa’s lead and turn the Packers’ flamethrower into a Bic lighter. But Green Bay has found ways to soften those disadvantages and roll to wins in games against the Saints, 49ers, and to a lesser extent, the Bears. If Los Angeles is going to escape Wisconsin with a win, it’s going to need its stars to go supernova in Green Bay. — CD
The Urban Era begins in Jacksonville
Like many Ohio State fans, I have complicated feelings about Urban Meyer. I believe he has a sincere love for the university, and I can recognize the positive football impact he had on the program, which went from consistently great to elite under his leadership. I’m also relieved he’s no longer the head coach. He often had a blind spot when it came to hires (his handling of Zach Smith, domestic abuser and all-around terrible person, was the most damning) and his political opinions appear … problematic.
I’m not surprised that he took another coaching job, nor that he decided to give the NFL a shot. That’s not because I think he’s a serial liar. It’s because coaches never really stop being coaches:
While I understand why some automatically assume Meyer will fail with the Jaguars, I’m more on the fence about his NFL prospects. For every Pete Carroll who excels at the pro level, there are two or three Nick Sabans who haven’t. But I also don’t think it’s fair to project Meyer’s future based on those past examples. He’s walking into a pretty favorable spot, with an owner who won’t kick him to the curb if the immediate returns aren’t satisfactory.
I can see both how it could work and how it couldn’t.
Where I think he’ll succeed: Making Jacksonville a more attractive landing spot
When Meyer took over at Ohio State, he quickly understood what the school needed to do to compete in the college football arms race: recruit at a high level, upgrade the facilities, and pony up for a top-notch coaching staff. That investment paid off for the Buckeyes, who have lost just 11 games since 2012 and have had no trouble wooing five-star recruits and rising coaches to Columbus each season.
And it looks like Meyer is already working on improving the situation in Jacksonville:
That should also help the Jaguars reel in better free agents ($73 million cap space doesn’t hurt either). So can Meyer himself, who can win over available players by selling them on what he’s trying to build: a franchise with a renewed commitment to winning.
Where I have my doubts: Making the right hires
Yes, Meyer has made some fantastic hires in the past, including Ohio State’s current coach, Ryan Day, and several behind-the-scenes positions such as player personnel/development (Mark Pantoni and Ryan Stamper) and strength and conditioning (Mickey Marotti). He’s also made some downright awful ones, and it’s almost always because he has a personal relationship with that coach. Zach Smith is the grandson of Earle Bruce, Meyer’s mentor, and he wasn’t even a good wide receivers coach on top of the warts. Bill Davis, a disaster of a linebackers coach for Ohio State, was the best man at Meyer’s wedding.
Based on one rumor, it looks like Meyer might not have learned his lesson for what will be one of his most important hires — the person who will call plays for, presumably, Trevor Lawrence:
There’s nothing wrong with hiring someone you know and trust, but there is if that person isn’t equipped for the job at hand.
Where I think he’ll succeed: Motivating his players
For the same reasons Meyer can convince guys to come play for him, he can also tap into players’ emotions and figure out what drives them.
I think back to Meyer’s relationship with Dwayne Haskins. Before his final game with the Buckeyes, Haskins revealed that his coach purposefully withheld some praise to keep the quarterback’s ego in check — that same ego that contributed to Haskins’ short stint in Washington.
I’d expect Meyer will establish a good rapport with Lawrence, especially after he gets to know his new quarterback and what makes him tick. Meyer has a history of getting along well with his quarterbacks and Lawrence, still just 21, will be accustomed to the kind of rah-rah that Meyer can provide.
What motivates athletes in college vs. the NFL might be different — players are older and wiser and are actually earning paychecks — but the psychology behind it is probably similar. And it doesn’t just work in the locker room. It can produce wins on the field:
Where I have my doubts: How he handles the pressure (and losing)
Meyer’s health was the main reason he left both Florida and Ohio State. On one hand, he worked on fixing a lot of the issues that plagued him at Florida when he went to Ohio State — the players mostly stayed out of trouble, he figured out how to delegate (sometimes), he didn’t always treat every loss like it was the end of the world.
On the other hand, the NFL is a different beast. The Jaguars could easily lose more games in his first season than he did his entire OSU tenure (he went 83-9). How will an ultra-competitive coach who has had difficulty dealing with stress respond when/if his team struggles? Will he revert back to his control freak tendencies and take on more than he can chew?
I’m not convinced he’s built to cope with the up-and-down swings of the NFL, but I’m not sure he’s not. Either way, it’ll be fascinating to watch how the Meyer Era unfolds in Jacksonville. —SH
Divisional Round picks
Here are our very expert, can’t-miss picks for this weekend.
The “weather is the tiebreaker” game: Ravens vs. Bills
This was the hardest decision for me to make this week. These two teams are pretty evenly matched. Both have an exciting young quarterback who can turn a would-be sack into jaw-dropping Houdini act. Both have good defenses. Both are led by men from the Andy Reid coaching tree.
I’ll be happy for whichever team wins this game, but if I’m being honest, I’m rooting a little more for the Ravens than I am the Bills, so I’ll be totally fine if I’m wrong with this pick.
And I could very well be. The Bills’ biggest defensive weakness is the Ravens’ biggest offensive strength: the run game. The Bills gave up 163 yards on the ground to the Colts last weekend, while the Ravens ran over the Titans for 236 yards. Lamar Jackson was their leading rusher with 136 yards, and he’ll get plenty of carries in Buffalo Saturday night.
Buuuuut, it could snow in Buffalo Saturday night. Jackson has never played in snow before, and the Florida native doesn’t really want to either. So I let the forecast be the deciding factor for why I’m taking the Bills to advance to the AFC title game. —SH
The “Yeah, good luck with Jared Goff back there” game: Rams vs. Packers
Fun fact: Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers are equally paid! Yes, Goff signed a $134 million deal in 2019, and Rodgers signed one worth that same amount in 2018. The vagaries of NFL contracts, however, mean that both players will most likely not play to the end of their deals, but let’s not lose sight of the real story here: the Rams thought Jared Goff was just as valuable as Aaron goddamn Rodgers.
The Rams get some credit at least for valuing Aaron Donald slightly more than Jared Goff, giving the god of pass rushing a $135 million deal. Whatever hopes the Rams have are firmly tied to Donald’s ability to frustrate Rodgers. If you buy the whole “defense wins championships” idea, then the Rams are the team to pick here. But it’s going to be hard to slow down Green Bay’s offense enough to give Goff and Co. the chance to keep up. Packers win. —RVB
The “I don’t have strong opinions about this” game: Browns vs. Chiefs
The Browns are the underdog story of the postseason, and even a heartless cynic like me is rooting for them. But the Chiefs are pretty good! And it’s hard not to like Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The only thing maybe not to like about either one of these teams is that they’ve both come to terms with rostering two players who did a pretty heinous thing, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt.
At any rate, this figures to be one of the better games to watch this week--lots of offense!--but the smart money is on the Chiefs to roll here. —RVB
The “Hall of Fame grifters” game: Bucs vs. Saints
Brace yourself for a weekend jam packed with insufferable nonsense about Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees. Every sports hack in America finally gets the chance to reheat the stale Peyton vs. Brady tropes tucked into the pleats of their khakis. If anything we should be thankful this isn’t the Super Bowl, where we’d have TWO WEEKS of the same crap served to us over and over again on every platform that hasn't been taken over by your uncle’s Q-Anon memes.
Oh sure, both Brady and Brees had long and successful careers. But let’s not forget the real story here: they’re both elite level hucksters. Brady turned his old age into a marketing tool for wellness crap, slapping a “TB12” logo sticker on protein powder and $40 trucker caps (but they’re breathable!). Brees was also in the dietary supplements game, but somehow found a way to make it even shadier than Brady’s Instagram-ready swag game. Flag-honoring Drew Brees made a commitment to be the head pitchman for Advocare, a multi-level marketing company pyramid scheme aimed at bilking rubes with mysterious vitamins.
In a perfect world, both of these teams would lose in a blow to the Chargers or Jets. But we don’t live in a perfect world. Sadly, the Saints, a team that used its influence and broad appeal to defend pedophile priests, are the better team here, and will win this game, forcing us into yet another week of ageless Drew Brees nonsense from the unoriginal people who write fart out sports content. Let’s just hope that whichever team they face in the NFC Championship walks away with that one. —RVB