What does Cam Newton’s release mean for the Patriots?
Let's talk about how Mac Jones will impact the New England offense
The Cam Newton era in New England included two bargain basement contracts, one season, and seven wins. It came to an end Tuesday morning when the Patriots informed the 2015 NFL MVP he was being released in advance of cut-down day.
It’s a slightly shocking move for a team that’s spent the past two decades sharpening its bluntness when it comes to roster moves. Newton was due just $3.6 million in 2021, which would have ranked him seventh among backup quarterbacks. He’s a player who had a year-plus to learn Josh McDaniels’ offense and repeatedly drew praise for a work ethic that rivaled Bill Belichick’s. Belichick even insinuated he was trending toward a starting role in his final, pre-cut press conference.
With 53-man rosters due, Belichick saw more value in rookie Mac Jones for the top job and, ostensibly, soon-to-be 36-year-old Brian Hoyer (1-12 as a starter since 2016) as his understudy (EDIT: he’s since been released, but is expected to re-sign with the club, which currently has one active QB under contract). New England’s future was always designed to be turned over to its most recent first round pick, but Newton seemed like a useful mentor to guide the team through the rough patches of his learning curve. Instead, Newton missed preseason time due to Covid regulations and wound up getting Wally Pipp’d out of Foxborough after Jones played masterfully in joint practices against the Giants and then in his team’s final preseason game.
So, for the first time since 1993, the Pats will throw a rookie quarterback into the fire as their Week 1 starter. All Jones has to do to be better than Drew Bledsoe is throw for more than 148 yards and not lose to a division rival by 24. Erasing any lingering doubt about releasing Newton will be tougher.
How did Mac Jones win the Patriots’ starting QB job?
Belichick brought Jones around slowly in his introduction to NFL(-ish) opponents in the preseason. His first appearance was a test to see if he could identify opposing defenses and progress through his route tree quickly enough to be a viable option behind center. The end result was a mediocre statline -- 13 of 19 (decent) for 87 yards (ugh) and six points (all via field goal) in five drives. Even so, Jones made plays that kept his offense on schedule even if they lacked excitement, displayed useful command from a no-huddle hurry-up set, and was slightly undone by a couple of drops on well-placed deep balls that would have made his day pop off the stat sheet:
He dialed up the workload in Week 2. This meant attempting more dangerous throws in traffic up the middle but also showing off the accuracy and ability to adjust plays at the line of scrimmage that made him Nick Saban’s huckleberry in Tuscaloosa. This game saw deeper drops in the pocket and more of a focus on intermediate throws; he went 4 for 5 on passes that traveled between 11 and 20 yards downfield for 69 yards en route to a 13 of 19, 144-yard performance.
Once again, deep balls were limited but when Jones decided to air it out he correctly identified single coverage away from safety help. His throws weren’t 100 percent perfect, but they were still pretty damn catchable:
It was the team’s final preseason game, following up a week of strong practices with the Giants, that may have secured Newton’s ouster. Jones threw for 156 yards and a touchdown on only 14 pass attempts, building on the passing strength he’d displayed against the Eagles. While he only completed two of his five intermediate distance passes, those numbers were tarnished by one definite Gunner Olszewski drop and one kinda/sorta Isaiah Zuber drop in the end zone. He connected on both his deep attempts this time around, including this ugly-but-effective back-shoulder throw that turned Devin Asiasi toward open field for a big gain:
That’s the kind of throw that suggests Jones’ lack of elite arm strength is a solvable problem. Despite wobbling through the air after the rookie gets hit upon his release, it still lands where it needs to be to create a chunk play for the Pats. While he didn’t hit Asiasi entirely in stride, the difference here is likely only a few yards of YAC vs. the alternative of an incomplete pass or, if the throw sailed too close to the hashmarks, a potential interception.
That was apparently enough to convince New England to move on from Newton after 15 months with the club. Now what?
What does Jones bring to the Patriot offense?
We have a good idea of what Jones can do in the NFL based on his preseason performances, albeit against second-team defenses and the joint practice hijinx of Joe Judge’s brawlin’ buddies (formerly known as the 6-10 New York Giants). There are going to be lots of five-step dropbacks in the pocket, shotgun snaps, shotgun snaps *with* five-step drops and, until he catches up to speed with first-team defenses, probably a lot of checkdowns to his tailbacks and short crossing options. This would be a great month to sell high on James White in season-long fantasy!
Let’s talk about the limitations Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may run into with the switch to their rookie at QB1.
It’s possible the Patriots released Newton because his game and Jones’ were too dissimilar and toggling between the two during the regular season could have created more problems than it would have been worth. Newton’s biggest value to the Patriots in 2020 was through his scrambling and running ability; his 12 rushing touchdowns were four more than the rest of the team combined. He ran an average of nine times per game and his scrambles broke free for 9.1 yards per run -- third-best among qualified QBs last year (but behind Taysom Hill and Mitchell Trubisky, so…).
Jones, on the other hand, is much more ...let’s say Brady-esque in his elusiveness. He can avoid pressure and extend plays, but he’s not going to crash out of a broken pocket and save a series with his legs.
Another concern for Jones will be pocket awareness. The Patriots have slipped in pass protection since the retirement of should-be Hall of Fame offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia before the 2020 season. Newton’s 7.8 percent sack rate was the highest by a New England starting quarterback since Tom Brady’s debut back in 2001. Jones has been sacked on 8.6 percent of his dropbacks this preseason. That includes a concerning four sacks in 18 pass plays against the Giants, who have a good pass rush that absolutely should not be getting to the quarterback every 4.5 attempts.
He avoided costly sacks at Alabama -- only 13 in 415 dropbacks last season (3.2 percent) -- but that was thanks in part to an offensive line loaded with NFL talent. His scrambles gained 88 yards on 22 carries last fall (officially it’s 35 for 14 yards, since the NCAA counts sacks as negative rushes) and a lone touchdown. It’s safe to say there will be a lot more frustrating, drive-stalling sacks in play for the Pats this fall.
As for the passing game, it’s fair to say Jones’ ability to check down and take the yards the defense is giving him is similar to how Brady operated way back when he was called upon to take Bledsoe’s reps. The question is how effective that can be in an NFL that values vertical passing much more than it did two decades ago. The Patriots have worked to keep pace by upgrading its target list fastidiously in free agency.
Jones didn’t incorporate much tight end help in his breakthrough season as Alabama. This was because he didn’t really have to. The Crimson Tide supplied him with a seemingly endless supply of blue chip talent at wideout. On any given down, he could have thrown the ball to Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, 2021 top six pick Jaylen Waddle, likely 2022 first rounder John Metchie, or checked down to first round running back Najee Harris. As a result, top two tight ends Miller Forristal and Jahleel Billingsley accounted for only an eighth of the team’s completions (41 of 324).
That could be an issue for a Patriot team that spent big this offseason to bring in the top two available tight ends in free agency to bring back the Rob Gronkowski/NAME REDACTED two-TE sets of the early 2010s. We didn’t see Jones target his tight ends often this preseason, but there’s a caveat to that as well; the tight ends he’d be throwing to barely played. Hunter Henry missed the entire preseason as he recovers from a (hopefully) minor injury and Jonnu Smith didn’t share the field with Jones, by my count, at all in exhibition play.
Still, he was able to turn 2020 third-rounder Devin Asiasi -- two catches last season -- into a viable preseason target (four catches, 64 yards vs. the Giants). Given Jones’ preseason ability to cycle through his reads and willingness to check down, we could see a similar preference for the versatile Smith (2018-20 average target distance: 5.3 yards). This would help create space for the occasional up-the-seam strike to a more traditional in-line tight end like Henry (avg. target distance: 9.1 yards).
Jones may not be a boon to the Pats’ deep game, but his accuracy from the pocket should provide an upgrade for the team’s wideouts. Newton ranked 30th among 36 qualified quarterbacks in 2020 with a 74.6 percent on-target rate and 31st with a 19.7 percent bad throw rate, per Pro Football Reference. Jones is coming off a season in which he completed 77.6 percent of his passes at the college level and completed, excluding drops and clock-stopping spikes, 75 percent of his passes in the preseason.
That could mean Nelson Agholor’s deep ball proficiency (average target depth: 15.5 yards) takes a backseat early in the season while Kendrick Bourne (9.3 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (10.2) take on much of the receiving workload. This wouldn’t be too much of a departure from last year’s offense; Newton only attempted 27 passes of 20+ yards in 15 games in 2020. Comparatively, Brady threw 61 deep balls in 16 games two years ago. Newton’s release and Jones’ preseason performance suggests the Patriots will land in the creamy middle between those two zones, though it will depend heavily on how the team’s new (and expensive) wideouts/tight ends perform in Foxborough.
The preseason suggests Jones is capable of running a low-impact Patriot offense. Whether he’s ready or not, that’s what he’ll have to do lest the reins wind up in Brian Hoyer’s hands (no one wants this). The Alabama rookie has been mostly as advertised so far; an efficient passer who can read a defense and progress through his internal decision tree quickly enough to maintain drives. He’s also a limited play-extender in the pocket. While his downfield touch is proper, it’s fair to wonder about his arm strength and whether or not he’ll be able to deliver big strikes downfield as protection falters around him.
Signs are positive so far, and the biggest argument in Jones’ favor is that Belichick liked him so much he effectively decided to let him fly without a safety net. That’s high praise for a young quarterback, and while there will undoubtedly be times he’s overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage, he looks like the kind of player who can survive his upcoming trial by fire and become a better player as a result.