Alright, who wants Carson Wentz? Hello? Anyone?
Plus, imagining the Broncos without Von Miller
What can the Eagles expect in a Carson Wentz trade?
The Rams’ Matthew Stafford trade wasn’t just about Matthew Stafford. As valuable as an underrated, never-given-a-proper-shake veteran quarterback can be, the subtext to Los Angeles’ deal was always about getting the hell out from under Jared Goff’s contract.
Stafford commanded two first round picks in exchange for his services not because he’s an impact prospect like fellow “two firsts” tradees like Laremy Tunsil or Jalen Ramsey or Jamal Adams. Goff was included in that ransom because the Lions were willing to absorb the $43 million in dead cap space he would have eaten up in California.
Goff was an albatross whose onerous contract extension will extend the Rams’ streak of not making a first round selection to seven years. He was the 2021 update to the Texans’ 2017 trade that shipped Brock Osweiler out of Houston at the cost of a second-round pick. He’s also a pretty good barometer for what the Eagles can expect in their ongoing quest to trade Carson Wentz and hand their offense over to Jalen Hurts.
That is a very bad sign for Philadelphia.
The Eagles aren’t getting a first round pick in exchange for Wentz
This is not happening. If anything, the Eagles may have to send a first (or second, or third, or some combination of the three) to a team with an unsettled quarterback room and plenty of cap space just to clear the former starter from their roster.
Wentz and Goff are very easy to connect. Goff was the first pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, Wentz went No. 2 (PHRASING). Goff led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018, while Wentz started 13 regular season games for the 2017 NFL champions before Nick Foles took his place due to injury. Goff struggled with efficiency and injuries and was replaced down the stretch in 2020 by a player who’d never had an NFL start in his life. Wentz struggled with efficiency and injuries and was replaced down the stretch in 2020 by a player who’d never had an NFL start in his life.
These are all important traits for these young quarterbacks, but for our purposes the most important similarity may be this one. Goff signed a four-year, $134 million contract extension in September 2019. Wentz signed a four-year, $128 million extension in June 2019.
Each extension looked ...questionable at the time. They’re disastrous in retrospect. Those deals left their respective teams ranked among the bottom five teams when it comes to salary cap space this spring (they’re each more than $25 million in the hole). Now each side is hoping for a reset. Los Angeles got theirs in the form of the Stafford trade. The Eagles don’t have to worry about Wentz’s replacement -- Hurts looked capable in his brief audition to end 2020 -- but they do need to worry about clearing the remaining $134 million in upcoming cap hits from their books.
The Rams had to blow away competing offers for Stafford in order to get the Lions to take back Goff, who for all his warts averaged significantly more yards per pass, a higher passer rating, and a completion rate nearly 10 full points better than Wentz. As such, no one has come calling with a first round trade offer. While reports of a pair of second-rounders for the Philly signal caller have emerged, the fact Howie Roseman hasn’t jumped at the idea -- while knowing any delay could see an intriguing quarterback carousel begin to spin without him -- suggests this is more theory than fact.
While Wentz’s on-field stock won’t drop any further, waiting could see needy teams talk themselves into other potentially-available trade targets like Sam Darnold, Jimmy Garoppolo, or one of the Raiders’ Derek Carr/Marcus Mariota pairing. If that happens, keeping the former No. 2 pick might not look like such a bad idea, especially if he can restore some of his value under the new regime in Philly. The Eagles chose him over Super Bowl winning head coach Doug Pederson earlier this offseason, after all.
But let’s assume the rift between quarterback and franchise truly is irreparable. Who is going to come knocking for a highly-paid player who ranked 34th out of 35 qualified starters in passer rating last fall and has zero playoff wins (and only four playoff passes) to his credit?
Alright, who wants Wentz?
The most obvious answer is Indianapolis. The Colts have Wentz’s former offensive coordinator, the guy who helped him reach Pro Bowl form, in head coach Frank Reich. They boast one of the league’s top offensive lines (even with Anthony Castonzo’s retirement) and a top tailback platoon to ease the pressure from the passing game. They also have a glaring need at quarterback following Philip Rivers’ retirement; the only passer under contract for 2021 right now is Jacob Eason which, ew.
But the Colts know this. They know how toxic Wentz’s contract situation is. They have an extremely capable general manager in Chris Ballard. There’s no way they’re going to pay sticker price on a clunked-up quarterback.
So the rumor mill has been grinding toward other landing spots that sure look like smokescreens. The Bears, longtime boogeyman in the “they’ll pony up big for a semi-useful quarterback, so you’d better give us a good offer” school of negotiation, have been floated as a “front runner” for Wentz’s services.
Chicago is already projected to eclipse the 2021 salary cap, and while the Eagles would eat $33 million of the dead money attached to his extension, the rest would clog up the Bears’ spending for years to come … all for a quarterback whose on-target throw rate was five points lower than Mitchell Trubisky’s. Wentz proved he couldn’t drag a depleted WR corps to prominence last fall. With Allen Robinson slated to leave in free agency, the top three wideouts under contract in Chicago for 2021 are Anthony Miller, Darnell Mooney, and Javon Wims. They could franchise tag Robinson, but that would only further complicate their cap room. This is not a fit!
Washington, with plenty of cap room and a history of terrible decision making, could be a fit. There haven’t been any rumors connecting the Football Team to Wentz and the Eagles may be reticent to trade him inside their own division, but owner Dan Snyder may jump at the opportunity to add a quarterback who is *already* damaged goods rather than allowing his time in burgundy and yellow to break him instead. The Patriots also have a need behind center and the cash to absorb a bad contract, but Belichick:
May be waiting for one of his own disciples to return to the flock (Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett), and
Likely wouldn’t move on Wentz unless he was getting a Godfather deal in return.
The Raiders, who have no cap room and zero need for another mediocre quarterback, could be in the running anyway because Jon Gruden is a lunatic.
Other suitors could emerge if they wind up trading away their own questionable passers, but none are likely to even sniff Roseman’s asking price. The Eagles’ best shot at unloading the QB they no longer want hinges on getting the Colts to part with precious draft picks. Ballard did that last year, but it came in service of adding DeForest Buckner to his defense. Buckner was an All-Pro his first season in Indianapolis. Wentz was arguably the worst full-time starting quarterback in the league that year.
There’s one place that makes sense for a Wentz trade, and it’s the worst possible spot for an Eagles team hoping desperately to flip him for franchise-altering draft picks. That could change as the offseason evolves, but it’s extremely difficult to see the immediate appeal of trying to rehab the Philadelphia quarterback’s on-field presence. If you are an NFL general manager who looks at Wentz’s 2020 play, his general lack of playoff success, and his obscene cost over the next three seasons and thinks “yeah, I’d much rather have that than a cost-controlled first round pick,” guess what: you fucked up. —CD
Is another pass rushing god headed to free agency?
It’s always a little surprising when a megastar player gets the kicked to the curb in the name of salary cap savings, or some other excuse. The NFL’s contract system tilts in favor of the owners with franchise tags and deferred and non-guaranteed money to make it easier for them to hang onto a player than let them walk as a free agent. Which is why you don’t often see cornerstone players like J.J. Watt—and especially quarterbacks—in another uniform until they’re well past their prime.
In the case of Watt, the story is more about the Texans deciding to go full-on Jets and become the league’s most dysfunctional organization—they’re honestly in the running for worst in all the major North American pro sports. Now, there are reports that the Broncos might put Von Miller, Watt’s fellow pass rusher and first-round pick from 2011, on the curb.
Miller’s potential free agency is about cap space. The Broncos have a team option on his contract for this year. Declining that option would save the team $18 million in cap space. They’re currently projected to have about $31.7 million in cap room this season, according to Over the Cap, with Miller’s contract. But cutting him would give them the room to be serious contenders in the potential Deshaun Watson trade market, re-sign safety Justin Simmons, etc.
Still, it’s a little jarring to see a player like Von Miller getting his walking papers from the team that drafted him a decade ago. Even more shocking is a free agent market headlined by two of the last decade’s most productive pass rushers. Miller has more sacks than anyone since 2011 with 106. Watt is second in that department with 101.
On the other hand, both players turn 32 next month. These aren’t players in the prime of their careers, but both, if they can overcome recent injuries, can still be productive.
The question I have is whether or not this is the right move for Denver. The Donkeys are a team close to contention. They’re 5-11 record last season had a lot to do with injuries (including Miller, who missed the season) and even more to do with terrible quarterback play. Drew Lock is clearly not the answer. The best news out of Denver this offseason so far is that the team hired an actual general manager, George Paton, and John Elway handed off personnel duties to him. Admitting your weaknesses and doing something about them is a true sign of strength. The Broncos are in QB hell because of Elway. And it seems like they’re preferred method to get out of this hell is to find an established player, rather than bank on one in the draft, which means they’ll need cap space, lots of it.
And that’s not the only need they have. They need cornerback help too, and more. In other words, Miller’s greatest value to the team at this point is, sadly for Broncos fans, tied up in his cap space. While it’s still a shock to think of the Broncs without Von Miller—IF they go through with declining his option—it is at least a sign of a team taking seriously the business of roster building. —RVB