The 4 types of fantasy sleepers who could save your rosters in 2021

How to find the right breakout players, based on 2018-2020 data

Your fantasy football destiny is not defined by where you land in your draft order.

There’s a reasonable chance the return you get from Christian McCaffrey this fall is similar to or less than a later first round pick like Aaron Jones. You can nail your top five draft picks, earn that vaunted A+ grade from Yahoo!’s weird automated report card and still sink to the bottom of your season-long league. I know this, because I have done this.

Instead, league champions are the ones who find lightning in the latter stages of the draft and on the waiver wire. They’re the ones that pull the right rookies out of a pool of candidates and bet on the journeymen who land in just the right places. They’re the ones that find a way to win even after their top three picks land on injured reserve. They ride players like Justin Jefferson, Josh Allen, and Austin Ekeler to blowout wins and playoff byes.

Which players will join the list in 2021? I broke down the numbers from each of the last four years and found fantasy breakthroughs typically fall into four categories. Find the guys who fit these descriptors late in your upcoming drafts and you might just avoid the fate of spending 24 hours in a Waffle House or Denny’s or some other diner an uncaring god took off his checklist long ago after finishing last among your friends.

The quarterbacks waiting to break out

In each of the past three years, young quarterbacks have leveled up their games to become MVP candidates and fantasy saviors. Patrick Mahomes was 2018’s QB10 in preseason rankings and then put together a season where he was roughly twice as valuable, per Joe Bryant’s VBD metric, as the league’s next-best gunslinger.

Lamar Jackson was the preseason No. 16 quarterback, per Matthew Berry, in his second year as a pro. He finished that year with nearly 80 more points than the second-best passer in PPR leagues. In 2020, Josh Allen was rated as the 119th-best fantasy option and 10th best quarterback, nestled in between Carson Wentz and Drew Brees. He finished the year with 418.1 points in DraftKings’ scoring system, 17 more than the next closest player and nearly 30 points ahead of Mahomes. 

There isn’t as much fantasy variance at quarterback than there is at other positions. The difference between the fourth-best QB in 2018 and the ninth-best was only 32 points, or two per week. These breakout passers tend to shatter the curve, however. In 2018, Mahomes outscored the second-best signal-caller (Matt Ryan) by 63 total points. Jackson had nearly 80 more points than No. 2 Dak Prescott in 2019. Pick the right guy here and you may not have to worry about your running back stable imploding.

2021 candidates: Kyler Murray doesn’t count, because he’s the preseason QB3. Joe Burrow, at QB13 and surrounded by receiving weapons including former LSU teammate JaMarr Chase, does. Baker Mayfield (QB17) embraced his first year under head coach Kevin Stefanski and could fulfill his promise as 2018’s top overall pick thanks to a top tier supporting cast and offensive line in year two. Trevor Lawrence (QB15) has a nice complement of wideout talent and may have to throw the ball 60+ times per game for a Jaguars team that’s gonna be playing from behind A LOT.

The platoon running back (whose platoon kinda sucks)

Austin Ekeler was barely a top 30 RB headed into the 2019 season, but when Melvin Gordon held out early and then played like crap upon his return, the former Western Colorado star emerged as a top 10 overall player. James Conner ranked right at 30th a the position his second year in the league, but a Steeler platoon that featured non-threatening backs like Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley made him the sixth-best running back in PPR leagues despite missing three games that fall. ESPN slapped a recommended auction price of $0 on James Robinson last season, but when the rest of the Jags’ RB room fell apart he rewarded shrewd owners with nearly 18 fantasy points per game. 

Sometimes good players get caught in the gears of a dense rotation. Sometimes previously mediocre ones find the room to shine with the spotlight all to themselves. The right opportunity may be all a good runner needs to make himself great. Other times you get a 2019 Dolphins situation where the brass ring remains un-grabbed and a 37-year-old quarterback winds up your leading rusher.

2021 candidates: Darrell Henderson’s stock is up following Cam Akers’ Achilles tear, but he’s still the preseason RB21. Unless Jake Funk or Ray Calais or some unknown veteran free agent scoops his carries he could be a difference maker. Miles Gaskin had 41 catches in 10 games last season for Miami and only has to outplay Malcolm Brown and Patrick Laird (part of that ‘19 Dolphins platoon, which was so, so bad) for snaps at the moment. Rookie Michael Carter could easily take the RB1 role in New York ahead of La’Mical Perine and Tevin Coleman, though he’ll still have to play for the Jets which is never ideal.

The tight end playing with a weak WR corps

I did not expect much from Darren Waller in 2019. I ranked his Raiders’ tight end group as the worst in the NFL. Waller came into that campaign with 18 career catches in three seasons and was surrounded by Foster Moreau and Derek Carrier on the depth chart. ESPN was more optimistic, but still ranked him as the 11th-best TE that preseason.

We were very, very wrong.

Waller had 90 catches and more than 1,100 yards while putting up more fantasy points than all but three other players at his position. One of the guys who outscored him was Matthew Berry’s preseason TE17 that summer -- Ravens sophomore Mark Andrews.

Waller and Andrews both shined because they’re massively talented, but their value spiked because they each dominated their teams’ target share. Waller had 46 more targets than the Raiders’ no. 2 guy (which was, hilariously, Hunter Renfrow). Andrews had 27 more targets than Hollywood Brown. That was the catalyst that pushed this unlikely pair into the upper crust at tight end alongside Travis Kelce and George Kittle. 

2021 candidates: Adam Trautman has a clear path to be New Orleans’ TE1 following Jared Cook’s release, but a lack of QB stability has him ranked 20th at his position. The Saints’ WR corps is basically just an injured Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith (who left Tuesday’s practice with a minor injury), and a whole bunch of role players. Cole Kmet clocks in at 21st in Chicago, a team with Allen Robinson (great!), Darnell Mooney (lots of potential!) and not much else to bolster a shaky Andy Dalton/Justin Fields QB duo. Anthony Firkser could have a breakout season in Jonnu Smith’s wake if Julio Jones misses any extended time in Tennessee.

The rookie wideout stepping into a void

Justin Jefferson arrived in Minnesota as the heir to Stefon Diggs’ vacated throne. He exceeded the hype with a 1,400-yard season that painted him the league’s sixth-best fantasy receiver. He’d started the season on most waiver wires after being dubbed the preseason’s WR58, behind N’Keal Harry and Anthony Miller. Neither A.J. Brown nor DK Metcalf cracked 2019’s top 70, but the former Ole Miss teammates each joined rosters in desperate need of someone to step up into the starting lineup. Brown finished his rookie year with a top 10 PPR mark and Metcalf was top 30. D.J. Moore was ranked 80th before his NFL debut and finished the 2018 season as a top 40 contributor that fall. 

There’s still plenty of risk to be found in this group. Hollywood Brown was supposed to be the crown jewel of a depleted Ravens’ receiving room but had only 584 receiving yards as a rookie. The next wideout drafted was N’Keal Harry, who plays for the WR-starved Patriots but has only 45 catches and 414 receiving yards in his short career to date. 

This metric can be applied to tailbacks as well, though you’d have to wait until late in the draft (or not at all) to find a player outside the hype machine. James Robinson emerged as the best option for the Jaguars after going undrafted out of Illinois State and completely ruled as a rookie despite a lack of talent around him. Phillip Lindsay took CJ Anderson’s old spot in Denver in 2018 and ran for more than 1,000 yards. Find a weak RB room and roll the dice on an unproven young back; it won’t always work, but that high ceiling is a welcome departure from the Devontae Bookers (Devontaes Booker?) and Rex Burkheads out there.

2021 candidates: There’s tons of potential here for 2021 after another loaded class of receivers joined the league. Rashod Bateman will have to outplay Brown (who finished 2020 on a heater) and new addition Sammy Watkins to earn targets in Baltimore, but is absolutely capable of being that guy if he can be as good as he was at Minnesota. DeVonta Smith will be a popular preseason hype target and will have to outplay 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham for targets, but should get plenty of opportunities to shine for a bad Eagles team. 

Chargers’ third-rounder Josh Palmer has looked solid in training camp and could fill a vital role between Keenan Allen’s shorter-range expertise and Mike Williams’ “f---- it, i’m going deep” game. Elijah Mitchell scored 46 touchdowns out of the backfield at Louisiana, has earned solid marks in training camp, and could wind up getting big reps after the 49ers RB rotation falls apart due to injury, as is tradition.