5 first-rounders from 2021 who can break out in 2024

They didn't get their fifth-year option picked up, but they can still live up to their draft status.

Last year, a record-low 12 players had their fifth-year option picked up. This year, that figure jumped back up to 18 players, with another — Rashod Bateman — agreeing to an extension instead. 

The option was not exercised for the other members of the 2021 first-round draft class, which means they are set to be free agents after the 2024 season. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be suiting up for a new team in 2025. Two players in last year’s declined group ended up signing a multi-year extension with the franchise that drafted them (Austin Jackson, Cesar Ruiz). A few others re-upped with the team they played for last year, albeit on a short-term deal (Isaiah Simmons, Jalen Reagor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire). 

Nor does it mean that they’ll be unwanted goods on the open market next year. Patrick Queen and Jordyn Brooks each signed a three-year contract for respectable money in March. The rest are all on prove-it deals of varying financial amounts.

It’s likely that a similar situation unfolds for the 2021 first-rounders. A majority will probably have to settle for one-year contracts next offseason, though a handful should be able to cash in after a breakout, or comeback, season. Here are the five players from that draft class who I think have the best chance of doing just that.

Justin Fields, QB, Steelers

Overall pick in 2021: No. 11 (by the Bears)

While the Bears have moved on to the Caleb Williams era, Fields finds himself backing up Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh. For now, anyway. At some point this season, Fields will get on the field, whether because Wilson gets injured, he plays poorly, or in a package specifically designed for Fields’ skills. (Despite the recent headlines, probably not as a return man.)

How Fields does with those opportunities will determine if other teams are interested in him as a starting quarterback. How he also performs in practice under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith could determine if Pittsburgh is interested in bringing him back for another season and potentially longer. 

As of this moment, the Steelers don’t have any quarterbacks under contract in 2025: Wilson, Fields, and Kyle Allen are all set to hit free agency next offseason. But Fields is only 25 and has at least had flashes of being a capable QB1. If he shows a knack for running Smith’s offense and looks like he’s developing, then the Steelers would have first dibs on locking him down, presumably for cheaper than the $25.7 million that his fifth-year option would have cost. In fact, they might get that deal done before this season starts.

It’s easy to forget after the lackluster QB play when he was the Falcons’ head coach, but Smith has helped another former first-round pick make the leap before. Five years ago, the Dolphins traded Ryan Tannehill to the Titans, where Smith was just beginning his first season as an OC. Tannehill initially started off as Marcus Mariota’s backup and then supplanted him six weeks into the season. Eventually, Tannehill led Tennessee to the AFC Championship Game and took home NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors. That offseason, he signed a four-year extension with the Titans. 

Although the situations aren’t completely analogous — Tannehill was older at the time than Fields is now and had more success as a passer — it’s not unreasonable to believe that Fields can thrive under Smith. Some of Fields’ best stats have come under center and in play action, which are two of Smith’s bread-and-butter concepts. 

Tannehill was never much of a runner, but Smith has always placed a premium on the run game, which Fields can contribute to, either as the starter or coming off the bench. Pittsburgh loaded up on offensive linemen in the draft, and that will hopefully help Wilson and Fields stay upright and pave the way for a more potent ground attack (Najee Harris, whose fifth-year option was also declined, could be extra-driven to ball out in what is now a contract year). 

Fields and Smith both came to Pittsburgh under similar circumstances and are licking their wounds a bit. That doesn’t ensure that things will work out, or that Fields will even get to play much behind Wilson this year, but the fresh start could be just what everyone needed. 

Zaven Collins, OLB, Cardinals

Overall pick in 2021: No. 16

After a rough rookie season, Collins had started to turn things around in 2022 with a major increase in production. Then last year, the Cardinals’ new coaching staff moved Collins from inside linebacker to the edge. From the outside, he totaled a career high in sacks, QB hits, and pressures, while also nabbing his second ever interception. The do-it-all Collins was the team’s highest-graded defender per PFF.

Here’s where the “but” comes in. But Collins’ sack number (3.5) wasn’t all that impressive, and his consistency remained an issue — all 3.5 of those sacks came in the first seven weeks. 

The Cardinals still consider Collins to be a key member of the defense and one who fits into their future plans. However, it’s understandable why they want to see if he can continue to make progress in his second year in Nick Rallis’ defense. 

The risk for the Cardinals is that Collins’ situation is comparable to what happened with Patrick Queen. In his third season, Queen showed signs of a breakthrough, but the Ravens decided not to pick up his fifth-year option. Last year, he continued on his upward trajectory and was named a Pro Bowler and second-team All-Pro. He then left Baltimore as a free agent and signed a big-money deal with the Steelers. 

Collins has a clear path forward. He has another offseason to get comfortable on the edge, and with the lack of proven pass rushers on the team, he’ll have every opportunity to take down opposing quarterbacks in 2024. If he succeeds, then he can secure the bag, whether he stays in Arizona or not. If he doesn’t, then maybe he can go back to playing inside linebacker for another team.

Jamin Davis, LB, Commanders

Overall pick in 2021: No. 19

Like Collins, Davis has had consistency issues throughout his first three seasons. And like Collins, Davis will transition from his off-ball linebacker spot to more of a pass rusher under new head coach Dan Quinn, somewhat similar to how Quinn deployed Micah Parsons in Dallas. 

That makes sense for a number of reasons. First, Davis has the athleticism and flair for getting after the quarterback, with three sacks last season in 13 games from the linebacker position (he blitzed just 33 times). Second, he’s not great in coverage, and this move would help him avoid getting exposed by wheel routes. And third, the Commanders added linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu in free agency, as well as Jordan Magee in the draft, which should free up Davis to take on a hybrid role on the defense.

This upcoming season will be a critical one for Davis, but he’ll be playing in a more favorable environment than before. He’ll have more stability in 2024 than he ever did on the Ron Rivera/Jack Del Rio defense. He can learn from the veteran Wagner, who is a strong leader on the field and off. And he’ll be coached by Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr., the Commanders’ new DC and Quinn’s longtime right-hand man. They know how to tap into their players’ potential and assemble the best personnel possible on defense.

If things go according to plan, and he bounces back from his shoulder injury, then Davis can finally shine. He’ll certainly be motivated to, anyway. 

Eric Stokes, CB, Packers

Overall pick in 2021: No. 29

As a rookie, Stokes lived up to his first-round billing. He appeared in 16 games in 2021, recording 55 tackles, one interception, a team-high 14 pass breakups, and allowed a team-low (for those who were targeted more than three times) 49.5 completion percentage.

Unfortunately, his next two seasons didn’t follow the same script. He’s been slowed down by injuries that have mostly kept him off the field and have hampered his performance when he has been able to play. 

Since 2022, Stokes has seen action in just 12 games due to ankle, knee, and hamstring injuries. In that period, he had zero interceptions, zero pass breakups, and his passer rating allowed hiked up, going from 71.3 as a rookie to 123.5 in 2022 and 145.3 in 2023.

Now for the positive news. Based on what they’ve said and what they’ve done, the Packers expect Stokes to play a significant part on the team in 2024. They didn’t take a cornerback until the seventh round (Kalen King), despite Cooper DeJean being the most-mocked prospect to them in the first round. Matt LaFleur also said Stokes has been “full-go” in offseason workouts. 

Earlier this year, Green Bay came up with a plan to try to prevent the hamstring issues that have plagued both Stokes and receiver Christian Watkins. They hired a new strength and conditioning coordinator, as well. 

None of those moves will guarantee that Stokes stays healthy, of course, but they are reasons for optimism. As is the fact that he will be playing in a new defense under Jeff Hafley, who spent the entire 2010s as a defensive backs coach at both the college and NFL levels. If Stokes can keep the injury bug away, then he has a good shot at bouncing back in 2024 and earning a decent payday, in Green Bay or elsewhere, in 2025.

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Edge, Buccaneers

Overall pick in 2021: No. 32

In his first three seasons, Tryon-Shoyinka’s numbers have been fairly steady. The problem is that those numbers have been pretty pedestrian, particularly his sack totals of 4, 4, and 5. He has yet to finish higher than fourth on the team in sacks. 

You want better production from your first-round edge defender, especially when you compare his output to teammate YaYa Diaby’s. As a rookie last year, the third-round pick led the Bucs in sacks with 7.5 and also made several impact plays, including the time when he took down Trevor Lawrence, stripped the ball, and then recovered it. JTS, on the other hand, didn’t force his first career fumble until the final week of the 2023 regular season. 

To be fair to JTS, that strip-sack against Bryce Young came at a crucial point. The Panthers were in Tampa Bay’s territory and still had plenty of time to eat into their 9-0 deficit. After the turnover, the Bucs were able to hold on to the ball for the last six minutes to clinch the game and the NFC South title. 

Maybe we can look back at that moment as a turning point in Tryon-Shoyinka’s career. He’ll presumably get more pass-rushing reps now that Shaq Barrett is with the Dolphins, but as head coach Todd Bowles said earlier this offseason, JTS isn’t the same player as Barrett. Bowles views JTS kinda like how the Cardinals do with Collins: as a “wild card” who can line up all over the defense. 

A jack of all trades is a handy weapon for any NFL defense. The concern with JTS is that he completes the rest of that well-known phrase and ends up being a “master of none.” Wherever the Bucs use him, though, he needs to pick up where he left off in Week 18 and leave his mark on the field. If he does that, some team will be willing to give him more than a prove-it deal next offseason.