6 storylines worth monitoring during NFL free agency

Buckle up. The new league year is coming.

If you’ve been following the latest NFL news this week, you might have thought that free agency had already started. Technically, it doesn’t begin until the launch of the new league year on March 13. But we should know where a good chunk of the major available players are headed before that. The tampering window opens on March 11, and that’s when the action will really pick up. 

The next several days will be eventful across the league as rosters for the 2024 season start to take shape. I’ll be back at some point next week to weigh in on the biggest signings. Until then, I’ve identified six overarching free agency storylines I’ll be keeping an eye on, this coming week and beyond. 

Where will the quarterbacks end up?

Recently, I played matchmaker with six quarterbacks, including free agents and guys who are expected to be released or traded. Since then, Russell Wilson has joined Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield in free agency, with the Broncos deciding to eat a whopping $85 million in dead money. 

Rumors have been flying about where those free agents will land. Cousins has been tied to the Falcons, though the Vikings aren’t out of the conversation. The Patriots have their eye on Baker Mayfield, but the feeling might not be mutual. The Steelers may or may not be interested in Wilson. Justin Fields has been linked to the Steelers, Raiders, Falcons, and even the Browns. There’s also talk that the Bears could keep him and still draft Caleb Williams — or perhaps this is a ploy to drive his price up. 

It’s important to take all this gossip with a grain of salt, at least until the reports become more official. Non-free agents like Fields and Zach Wilson, who has received permission to seek a trade, might not be dealt right away, either. But as soon as the first domino drops, it should provide a little more clarity to the rest of the up-in-the-air QB situations. 

For example, let’s say that Cousins does go to Atlanta. That’s one fewer possible landing spots for Fields and turns the Vikings into a potential trade-up candidate in the draft (if they aren’t already one). Currently, they hold the No. 11 pick, which likely won’t be high enough to take one of the top four quarterbacks in this class. The Falcons, who own the No. 8 pick, could also trade down since they wouldn’t need to draft a QB if they sign Cousins. 

So far, we can cross one name off the list (not that many teams were lining up to sign him): The Bills brought back Mitchell Trubisky after the Steelers released him. That’s probably a win-win, since Buffalo will welcome a backup QB who knows the offense, and the sturdiness of Josh Allen means Trubisky shouldn’t see the field in 2024 very much. 

Which free agents will leave their longtime team?

As mentioned, we’ll see what happens with Cousins and the Vikings, but that’s hardly the only maybe-breakup to monitor. Chris Jones — the top free agent according to many different rankings — is on the market and should command a hefty payday. Jones held out until September because he wanted a new deal from the Chiefs, but the two sides were only able to agree to a one-year deal. After another Super Bowl-winning season, in which Jones was a force, he declared his intentions to return to Kansas City. Can the Chiefs work a little salary cap magic and keep their outstanding defensive tackle? TBD. 

Other highly regarded free agents are certainly, or almost certainly, moving on from their longtime franchise. The Dolphins have said goodbye to one-time draft picks Jerome Baker (who could still return) and Xavien Howard (who will not), while they also chose not to use the franchise tag on Christian Wilkins after his most productive season yet. 

The Bills needed to dump a lot of salaries and parted ways with long-tenured players like Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, and Mitch Morse. Poyer is one of several safeties — most notably, eight-year Broncos vet Justin Simmons — who is now looking for a new home. 

The same is true for a loaded running back group, which just might be the best in free agent history. Expect stars such as Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs to be wearing new uniforms in 2024.

What will the running back market look like?

While we’re on the topic of running backs, will any of them even sniff the three-year, $42 million contract that Jonathan Taylor received last year? Given the way the position’s value continues to drop, that seems unlikely. 

The top free agents might at least be able to get to the $10-12 million average mark, but others will have to settle for prove-it deals. Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and AJ Dillon are coming off down seasons. J.K. Dobbins is coming back from a dreaded Achilles tear. The RB draft class is deep, if low on Days 1 and 2 prospects.

I don’t think we’ll have to wait long to see the more prominent players get signed, but we shouldn’t anticipate many lucrative contracts, especially compared to other positions in free agency.

Will teams wait to sign wide receivers?

Unlike their running back brethren, this year’s wide receiver free agency pool is lacking in name recognition. The most familiar of the bunch, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman, have already been locked down. Evans re-upped with the Bucs for two more years, while Higgins and Pittman were franchise-tagged.

After that, the biggest prize might be Calvin Ridley, who missed most of 2021 and all of 2022 before returning to the field in 2023. In his lone season with the Jaguars, Ridley racked up 76 catches for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns, all of which ranked first among WRs on the team. 

Then you have the streaky guys like Hollywood Brown and Gabe Davis, both of whom are capable of going off one week and then disappearing the next. They’re also still in their mid-20s and are probably worth a gamble. 

Older vets come with risks, too. Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas (who will reportedly be released in the next week) have struggled with injuries in recent years and are on the wrong side of 30. Yet they still have some value, particularly for teams that will be starting a young quarterback this coming season. 

However, my question is this: How in demand will wide receivers be in free agency? The 2024 draft is an embarrassment of riches at WR, led by perhaps the best overall prospect this year. If this class doesn’t break the record for receivers drafted in the first round, it should at least tie the record of seven, set 20 years ago.

The good news for any franchises that miss out at the position on Day 1? They’ll be able to find a playmaker on Day 2 or Day 3. But that might be bad news for a decent portion of the free agents, who could be waiting until after the draft to ink a new contract. 

Will any of the franchise-tagged players be traded or signed to long-term deals?

The deadline for teams to use their franchise tag came on Tuesday. At that point, nine players had received one form of the designation: the regular ol’ non-exclusive tag for eight of them, and the rarely used transition tag for the other (Kyle Duggar). 

It didn’t take long for one of those eight, Jaylon Johnson, to come to terms on a new deal. He agreed to a four-year, $76 million contract, and the Bears kept one of the best young cornerbacks in the league at home, just months after he had asked for a trade. 

Johnson won’t be the only one to work out a more substantial contract, but will it happen so quickly for the others? After all, teams have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term deal with their tagged player (if not, he’ll play under the one-year tender in 2024). In the past decade, just over 40 percent of the players who were franchised-tagged got a long-term deal. 

In that same time frame, six players were tagged and then traded elsewhere (all six happened between 2018 and 2022). Right now, Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed is the most likely tag-and-trade candidate, especially if Kansas City finds a way to keep the pricy Chris Jones.  

Which teams will be the most active in free agency?

I could invoke Deep Throat and tell you “follow the money,” and then point you to the teams with the most cap space, but that’s too simple. Usually, it’s not just the franchises with the most money to spend that are the busiest in free agency. It’s also the ones that are on the precipice of making a jump, either from rebuilder to playoff contender or playoff contender to Super Bowl hopeful. 

That doesn’t really describe the Commanders and Patriots, who sit atop the salary cap list. Both are transitioning to new coaches and, in all likelihood, a rookie QB that they draft in the top three. They will still be involved in free agency, but I don’t necessarily expect a huge spending spree, particularly when they possess quite a few draft picks this spring. Each has added one affordable free agent so far: the Commanders signed tight end Zach Ertz to a one-year, $5 million deal, and the Pats added offensive lineman Chukwuma Okorafor. Terms of Okorafor’s deal have not been public yet, though I’m sure that it’ll be fairly cheap.

On the other hand, teams that are ready to take another step could describe the Bears, who want to make sure their QB (Caleb Williams?) has plenty of talent surrounding him. The Texans, Cardinals, Colts, and Bengals all fit the bill, too, of playoff-caliber teams with $48+ million of cap space heading into free agency. 

Last year, the Dolphins and Lions were among the most active in free agency, and both went on to the playoffs. The Bears did not. And the Panthers really didn’t. So sometimes these free agent hauls work out, and sometimes they don’t.