NFL Week 10: Future possibilities

What happened this weekend could have major implications for the rest of the season.

If you can believe it, we had the first possible playoff scenario of the season this weekend. To be clear, it was a minor one: The Cardinals could have been eliminated from contention for the NFC No. 1 seed. Not exactly shocking, I know. 

But they weren’t! They’re still alive for the top seed (hah) because, with Kyler Murray back on the field and back to his scootin’ ways, the Cards rallied to beat the Falcons with a last-minute field goal. 

That was one of five walk-off kicks in Week 10, an NFL record. In fact, all but three games were decided by one possession — some much more fun to watch than others.

It’s too soon to know what the consequences of each result will be. Perhaps a dropped touchdown is the difference between one team missing the postseason and another team making it. Or a fourth-down conversion changes the seeding in one conference (and maybe even costs someone his job).

Once Week 18 comes, we can look back at some of these nail-biters and know how they changed the course of the rest of the season. Until then, we can only guess … which is what I’d like to do now.

With the help of Tankathon’s remaining strength of schedule and The New York Times’ playoff simulator, I came up with several predictions, both bold and not, about how the final weeks of the season will unfold. 

The Ravens will win the AFC North, but the Chiefs will secure the No. 1 seed 

The Ravens could easily be 10-0 right now, if only they were slightly better at closing out games. All three of their losses — and both of their AFC North losses — have come in one-score contests. This week, Baltimore blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead and fell at home to the Browns on one of the aforementioned walk-off field goals. 

Since the start of the 2022 season, no one — not even the Raiders! — has blown more double-digit leads than the Ravens. And yet, I still think they will end up as champs of the toughest division in the NFL. 

When they’re playing at their peak, the Ravens have looked like the best, most complete team in the league. Just last week, they annihilated the Seahawks and two weeks before that, they destroyed the Lions. After that 38-6 rout against Detroit, Baltimore took over the top spot in the DVOA rankings and have yet to relinquish it. 

The Ravens’ schedule doesn’t get any easier from here; they only have two more games against opponents that currently have a losing record, one of which is the Chargers. However, the rest of the AFC North is in a similar boat.

The Steelers face three more teams below .500, but they have the worst point differential (-26) in the division and have been outgained in all nine of their matchups this season.

The Bengals, perhaps the Ravens’ closest competition from a talent perspective, have the most daunting schedule in the league from here on out and just lost a game at home that they really needed to win. 

The Browns, who have the least intimidating path left in the AFC North, also can’t be trusted to always beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Deshaun Watson’s performance will determine how they finish down the stretch. If he looks like he did in the first half on Sunday, they’re in trouble. If he can replicate his second-half success, though, then maybe Cleveland can claim its first division crown since 1989, several years before Art Modell packed up the franchise and moved it to Baltimore. 

Still, the Ravens’ biggest obstacle to another AFC North is probably themselves. 

Their setback in Week 10 was good news for the Chiefs, who are back to being all alone atop the AFC standings. The Jaguars could have joined them with a win, but instead they were soundly defeated at home by the resurgent 49ers.

Thanks to those two losses, Kansas City, which had its bye this weekend, saw its odds of securing the AFC’s first-round bye jump to 59 percent. Even with upcoming dates against the Eagles, Bills, and Bengals, the Chiefs will likely claim the No. 1 seed in the conference for the third time in the last four years.

The Texans will make the playoffs

One week after setting a few NFL rookie quarterback records, C.J. Stroud did it again this week, but 1) on the road and 2) against a better opponent. 

The Bengals were one of the hottest teams in the NFL coming into Sunday, with an offense that had finally found its rhythm again and with a defense that had started to put it all together. Sure, Cincinnati was without a key player on each side — wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Sam Hubbard — but the Texans were missing their leading wideout, running back, tackler, and kicker.

It certainly didn’t look that way for Houston for much of the afternoon. Stroud outdueled Joe Burrow and led an offense that lit the Bengals up with 17 explosive plays, both through the air and on the ground. That doesn't mean Stroud was flawless, however. He fumbled twice in the first half and then threw only his second interception of the season late in the fourth quarter, which allowed the Bengals to get back in the game.

But Houston’s defense stepped up when it needed to: It forced Cincinnati to punt after both fumbles, picked off Burrow twice, and held the Bengals to a game-tying field goal rather than a go-ahead touchdown on their final possession. (Poor Tyler Boyd had a role in settling for that field goal try, too.)

Then, with a chance to win in the final minute for the second week in a row, Stroud was ice cold. He hit Dalton Schultz with a perfect pass on third down and then found Noah Brown, who bulldozed over a couple defenders after making the catch to get the Texans into field goal range. From there, newly signed Matt Ammendola made the kick as time expired. 

To sum it all up, Stroud was the star again, but the Texans’ upset win was a total team effort. That’s why I think their chances at securing a playoff berth should be better than 52 percent.

While it’s more likely that the Texans get in as a wild card if they make the postseason, it’s not out of the question that they take back the AFC South. Houston already has one win over the division-leading Jacksonville, and the rivals will meet again in Texas in two weeks. Even if the Texans falter then or at another point, as you might expect from an inexperienced team, their schedule is easy enough from here on out that they can afford a couple of missteps. Just not more than that.

The Lions will be the first team to clinch their division

This is my boldest take in this newsletter — and one that I said, in real life, at the end of September. That’s not because the Lions have done much to make me doubt my earlier prediction. At 7-2, they’re off to their best start in 50 years. It’s not because they only kinda played defense on Sunday in their shootout win over the Chargers. 

Mostly, it’s because their lead in the NFC North (1.5 games) isn’t as large as the Chiefs’ in the AFC West (2.5 games) or the Eagles’ in the NFC East (2 games). The 49ers, tied atop the NFC West with the Seahawks, can’t be counted out from ripping off a long winning streak, either. On Sunday, the Niners played better than they had in weeks, thanks to the return of Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, a turnover-free game from Brock Purdy, and the pass-rushing combination of Nick Bosa and Chase Young. 

I don’t want to dismiss the Vikings from challenging the Lions, either. Joshua Dobbs, subject of this week’s must-watch NFL graphic, has continued to add to his storybook season. After getting actual practice reps with his new team this week, Dobbs threw for 268 yards and a touchdown, then scrambled around for 44 rushing yards and another touchdown, to help Minnesota jump out to a 24-3 lead over the Saints at halftime. From there, the much-improved Vikings defense just needed to hold on (which it did). With Justin Jefferson set to return soon, and a not-very-difficult schedule awaiting them over the next few weeks, the Vikings have an 83 percent chance of punching their playoff ticket.

That said, I’m sticking with the Lions to be the first team to win a division in 2023. They have nothing but winnable games on the horizon, until the final three weeks of the season when they meet the Vikings twice and the Cowboys once. At that point, Detroit might have already sewn up the NFC North, particularly if the offense stays healthy and can reward Dan Campbell for his gutsy faith in them.

The Chiefs and Eagles have bigger hurdles in the next month — including a Week 11 clash on Sunday Night Football against each other — than the Lions. It’s also possible the Cowboys (fresh off another blowout against the Giants) and the Chargers (who are better than their record but can’t afford to lose any more close contests) go on a run to at least prevent their respective division from being clinched early. 

I think the Lions will win the NFC North even if it’s not official until the final week of the season, but Detroit hasn’t celebrated a division title in three decades. Why should they wait any longer than they have to?

The NFC South champ will finish with a losing record (again)

I’m not brave enough to guess which team will win the NFC South. Well, I feel confident enough to rule out the Panthers. 

But am I really supposed to believe in the Buccaneers, who just ended a four-game skid this weekend (because they were playing the Titans)?

Or the Saints, whose offense only came alive when Derek Carr got hurt and Jameis Winston brought his “eff it, I’ll just throw it” attitude (with good and bad results)?

Or the Falcons, who have now dropped three consecutive matchups to a quarterback who had never taken a snap in an NFL game, a quarterback who had joined his new team days prior, and a quarterback who was making his return almost a year after tearing his ACL? Even with a spirited effort from Desmond Ridder off the bench this week, and goal-line touches for Bijan Robinson, Atlanta couldn’t hang on at the end. 

Last year, the Bucs ended up on top of the NFC South with an 8-9 record, only the sixth team to win a division with a losing record. They promptly lost in the first round to the Cowboys, which was Dallas’ first road playoff win in 30 years. 

There are still eight weeks left in the season, so maybe one of these squads will figure out how to produce a winning streak that lasts longer than two games. Am I optimistic that will happen? No. It’s simply too bad we can’t swap in one of the AFC North teams to take the eventual NFC South winner’s place.