NFL picks for a potentially surprising Week 1

The 2023 season has just started, and we're already off to a promising start.

The Detroit Lions are all alone at the top of the NFL standings. When’s the last time we could say that?! Apparently, 67 years ago.

It’s way too soon to make many declarations about the Lions or Chiefs, just like it’s too soon to know if Detroit’s upset win is a sign that we’re in for a wild weekend or if it was simply a matter of circumstances (such as Kansas City playing without Chris Jones and Travis Kelce, as well as poor Kadarius Toney having a ghastly night).

I lean toward the latter, though I do think we’re in for a few more surprises in Week 1. Here are my picks, in bold, for the rest of the opening week slate (I also listed the latest odds in parentheses, via DraftKings):

Texans at Ravens (-9.5)

Buccaneers at Vikings (-5.5)

49ers at Steelers (+2)

Bengals at Browns (+2.5)

Jaguars at Colts (+5)

Titans at Saints (-3)

Cardinals at Commanders (-7)

Panthers at Falcons (-3.5)

Eagles at Patriots (+4)

Dolphins at Chargers (-3)

Packers at Bears (-1)

Rams at Seahawks (-5)

Raiders at Broncos (-3.5)

Cowboys at Giants (+3.5)

Bills at Jets (+2.5)

If you want a second opinion, as you should, then please check out Christian’s picks at FTW. Then you can come back here and read how I made up my mind about Week 1’s other 15 games.

The obvious picks

As we’ve learned over the last few years in the NFL, any team, no matter how much of an underdog, can win on any given Sunday. That said, I do not expect this week’s biggest favorites to have many problems.

Ravens over Texans

The Texans will be a work in progress this year, and the NFL did not do them any favors by scheduling their first game of the season in Baltimore, where Houston’s rookie quarterback and his banged-up offensive line will have their hands full against the Ravens’ ferocious defense.

Jaguars over Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Jaguars in recent years, but they’re a team on the rise facing off against the third-youngest QB starter in NFL history — and one who will be without his All-Pro running back. 

Commanders over Cardinals

The Cardinals aren’t tanking in the traditional sense because they will be trying to win on Sunday. This is the NFL, and every coach and player tries to win each week. They will also be riding with a quarterback they acquired two weeks ago and who is 0-2 as a starter in his career — and he’s their best current option. 

The “I thought about taking the upset but passed” picks

If I’m being honest, I would have put the Chiefs-Lions game in this category. I would have been tempted to take the Lions, especially once it became clear that neither Jones nor Kelce would play, but I would have chickened out and gone with KC. So I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these underdogs end up with the W this week.

Vikings over Buccaneers

The Vikings are a prime candidate to regress this year, and while the Bucs won’t be good, their defense should at least be able to keep them in games. And who knows, maybe this is the one game per year when we ask ourselves, “is Baker Mayfield good again?” before he reverts back to his “nah, still mediocre” form. I’m guessing we’ll have to wait a little longer for that, though.

Eagles over Patriots

Despite my faith in the Eagles — my early-season Super Bowl pick — I wavered a bit when I found out that Bill Belichick is going through a Joe Jonas phase. And by that, I mean he’s going through a public breakup. Will that make Belichick even more laser-focused about coaching than usual? I’m not sure, but I think his defense can at least give the Eagles a tough test to start the season.

Seahawks over Rams

On the one hand, the Rams looked awful in the preseason. They were blown out in all three matchups, including a 41-0 rout against the Broncos. On the other hand, Sean McVay sat most of his starters in the preseason and his Rams tend to bring their A game against the Seahawks. Last year, Seattle won the season series by a total of seven points and needed overtime to take down LA the second time. Even with Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald back in the lineup, I just don’t think the Rams will be very threatening this season.

Bills over Jets

The last time Aaron Rodgers lost a Monday Night Football start was in 2013, when he threw two passes and then left the game with an injury. Since then, he’s won nine straight. If he can deliver a win in his debut as a Jets, the frenzy in New York will reach a fever pitch. Unfortunately for the “J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!” faithful, they have to go up against the Bills, who have Super Bowl aspirations of their own and more recent success.

The upset picks

Week 1 is already 1-0 in this department, and I’m projecting we’ll see several more upsets on Sunday.

Steelers over 49ers

The 49ers in Week 1 + Mike Tomlin’s team as a home underdog = a recipe for an upset.

Browns over Bengals

Joe Burrow is the NFL’s newest highest-paid player, but don’t be surprised if he’s rusty again to open the season. Last year, Burrow missed the entire preseason after undergoing an appendectomy and, not coincidentally, the Bengals got off to a slow start and lost their opener to a division rival. This year, Burrow missed the entire preseason with a calf strain and in his first game action since the injury, he has a date with another AFC North foe: the Browns, who have a 4-1 record against the Bengals with Burrow under center.

Dolphins over Chargers

Like Burrow, Justin Herbert didn’t appear in any preseason games, though not for injury reasons. The Chargers topped the Dolphins last December, but Herbert might not be as sharp as usual in his 2023 debut, particularly against a Vic Fangio-coached defense.

Titans over Saints

I’m not sure what to expect from Derek Carr in his first season with the Saints, but I do expect Mike Vrabel to have his Titans ready to go on Sunday. And a healthy (for now) Ryan Tannehill-Derrick Henry-DeAndre Hopkins trio could upstage Carr’s first regular season game in New Orleans.

The “just flip a coin” picks

Aka, the most difficult games to predict this week.

Falcons over Panthers 

It’s been more than 20 years since a quarterback who was drafted No. 1 won his first start. While that sounds ominous for the Panthers, the Falcons do have a tendency to defy history. 

Bears over Packers

I don’t have a good feel for what either of these teams are at the moment. In the grand scheme of things, I think the Bears will show improvement this year, and the Packers might be fine with Jordan Love. As for what they’ll look like in Week 1? Who knows. I probably would have taken the Pack if their receivers were healthier. 

Broncos over Raiders

These two teams are reeking of bad vibes. The Broncos have had injury setbacks and are still feeling out this weird marriage between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. The Raiders have repeatedly ticked off defensive star Chandler Jones, whose status for Sunday is unclear. I don’t know if Payton can fix Wilson, but I suppose I trust him more as a coach than I do Josh McDaniels.

Cowboys over Giants

I have my doubts about Mike McCarthy calling plays for Dallas. I also have my doubts that the Giants can beat the Cowboys, who they’ve lost to 11 times in their last 12 matchups. But if the Giants win on Sunday night, I’m ready to fully put the blame on McCarthy.