Predicting when the NFL's next big moves will happen
We'll probably have to play the waiting game for a while longer.
I wouldn’t call this the “quiet” period of the NFL calendar. After all, look at everything that has happened this week.
Lamar Jackson revealed that he had requested a trade. The league will now allow players (well, at certain positions) to wear the No. 0. The NFL coaches gathered for their annual photo, an absolute gold mine of content. Anthony Richardson threw a football to the moon at his pro day.
But it still feels like we’re waiting around for something major to happen. Probably because the NFL Draft isn’t for another month, and there are quite a few veteran players who are stuck in limbo at the moment.
I do not consider myself an excellent prognosticator, but I’d still like to try my hand at predicting when five of these up-in-the-air situations will get sorted out.
Aaron Rodgers gets traded to the Jets
Prediction: Two weeks before the NFL Draft
It’s been two weeks since Aaron Rodgers declared his “intention” to play for the Jets this coming season. Yet so far, he remains with the Packers.
Not that he’s really been “with” the Packers, in person or otherwise:
Green Bay has already turned the page to the Jordan Love era, while the Jets haven’t been shy about their pursuit of the four-time MVP.
So why hasn’t a trade materialized yet? Well, it comes down to compensation, as laid out by Charles Robinson. The Packers insist they don’t need a first-round pick in exchange for Rodgers, and they seem content with a deal that involves at least two second-rounders, one this year and one next year. Reminder: NY recently acquired another second-round pick after trading Elijah Moore to the Browns.
But the Jets want qualifiers, per Robinson. Next year’s pick could be a first-rounder if specific thresholds are met, and if Rodgers doesn’t play in 2024, then they want a 2025 draft pick from Green Bay in return.
This is too complicated for the Pack, who’d prefer a more straightforward trade, one without all these conditions.
Although both sides are trying to pretend they’re not in a hurry to get this deal done, they absolutely are — and not simply to be done with it. April 17, or 10 days before the draft, is when the Jets can begin their offseason workout programs. Rodgers could start training with his new team at that point, and the Packers could start planning which prospects to target with the No. 42 or 43 pick.
With that in mind, I predict Rodgers will officially be a Jet days before the start of OTAs. However, I will not venture to guess if he actually shows up this time.
The Cardinals trade DeAndre Hopkins … somewhere
Prediction: During the NFL Draft
Draft-day trades are an annual tradition in the NFL. Sometimes, they are monumental (like A.J. Brown going to the Eagles last year) and sometimes we soon forget they even happened (Josh Rosen getting shipped to the Dolphins in 2019).
DeAndre Hopkins has been on the trade market all offseason, but he remains with the Cardinals as we head into April. Even as injuries (he’s missed 15 games in the last two seasons) and age (he’ll be 31 in June) have reduced Hopkins’ value, the Cardinals are still, obviously, trying to receive high draft capital in return:
While the asking price might be a little steep, that could change once the draft arrives. And to be fair, if healthy, Hopkins can be a top option for a team hoping to compete — particularly one, like the Bills or Chiefs, that might not be in position to draft one of the best receivers in this class.
It’s also possible that the Ravens, as a show of goodwill toward a certain quarterback, will try to acquire Hopkins — or any established receiver:
Wherever he lands, I expect Hopkins to be with a new team while the draft is unfolding.
Odell Beckham Jr. signs with a new team
Prediction: After the NFL Draft
Like Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr. has injuries (he missed all of last season while recovering from an ACL tear) and age (he’ll be 31 in November) concerns. Unlike Hopkins, Beckham Jr. is a free agent and can sign with any team.
As of now, OBJ either hasn’t received an offer he likes or he’s waiting for the right franchise to come calling. He’s been putting himself out there recently, though. First, he held a private workout and looked very OBJ-ish:
And then he hobnobbed at the NFL owners meeting.
The teams that have been most connected to Beckham include the Jets and Ravens, both of whom have unsettled quarterback situations (for now). I don’t think Beckham will want to join an offense without a QB firmly in place, and I’m not sure a GM will want to add a potential No. 1 receiver until the draft is over and he knows what his roster looks like.
So my hunch is that Beckham won’t be signed until May, at the earliest.
Ezekiel Elliott lands with a new (or old) franchise
Prediction: After June 1
Soon after Ezekiel Elliott’s release from the Cowboys, reports said that he had planned to sign with the Jets, Bengals, or Eagles. However, he remains a free agent … and he remains a running back who will be 28 this summer. So, y’know, the NFL doesn’t necessarily value him that much, even if a slowed-down Zeke can still contribute in the right offense.
I like the idea of Elliott playing for the Bengals, but it’s also possible that the “right offense” belongs to the only franchise he’s ever known. Jerry Jones, who has long championed Elliott, hasn’t ruled out the Cowboys bringing him back. Neither has Mike McCarthy, now ugh, Dallas’ playcaller:
Besides the wear and tear on Zeke’s body, I think there are two other factors keeping teams from signing him at the moment: the draft and June 1, a significant date for salary cap reasons.
In today’s NFL, teams often look to draft cheaper and younger running back options or sign them as undrafted free agents. That leaves a veteran back like Elliott waiting around longer than he would have if he had played a decade or two earlier. Nevertheless, I figure that wait will be just a little longer — though perhaps not as long as the next name on this list.
Lamar Jackson gets a new contract (from the Ravens or another team)
Prediction: Mid-July … IF it happens
In all honesty, I have no idea where the Lamar Jackson story is headed next. Does anyone?
The optimistic side of me thinks a deal could get done the week of the draft. Either another team presents Jackson an offer sheet and the Ravens match it or don’t, or the Ravens give their quarterback the kind of guaranteed money he’s looking for (reportedly not fully guaranteed, just more than the amount that Deshaun Watson, who is older and has had more injuries and, ya know, sexual misconduct allegations, received).
At this point, though, I have a hard time believing that will transpire, especially because the Colts have been the only team that has even appeared vaguely interested in Jackson. Which is strange!
Years ago, whenever there was a contract dispute between a player and a franchise, I always assumed the two sides would work it out eventually. But then Le’Veon Bell sat out an entire season after an All-Pro year, and Beckham Jr. was traded at just 26 years old. Now, I never know if the relationship can be saved or not.
To be clear: NFL players who put their mental and physical well-being on the line should be paid what they’re worth. The NFL owners and their “ludicrously capacious” bank accounts can afford as much. Some fans, however, object when players put their foot down about money. While I understand that it’s a bummer when a fan favorite leaves his team, or we don’t get to watch him play because he’s holding out, there’s nothing “greedy” about that decision. Like 99 percent of NFL players talk incessantly about the importance of teamwork and “the brotherhood.” They do not play the game only for themselves, and they are not selfish for demanding a contract that matches the work they put out there on and off the field.
Anyway, it’s possible that one franchise misses out on a quarterback in the draft and decides it wants to go big for Jackson. Or a contender loses its starter due to injury early in the summer. That could ramp up negotiations.
No matter what, we should have a little clarity by July 17, the deadline for franchise-tagged players to sign a long-term extension. If nothing happens, then Jackson will either have to sign his one-year tender before the start of the season … or hold out, the option that no one particularly wants (except for the other three teams in the AFC North).
But hopefully I’m wrong and there's resolution much earlier.